Driving Mechanism And Policy Simulation Of Urban Residents' Waste Separation Behavior

With the development of China's economy and the increase of urbanization,the amount of urban residents' resource consumption and the volume and complexity of domestic municipal solid waste(MSW)are increasing.It has become an important issue which needs urgent exploration in the field of resources and environment to solve the problem of pollution caused by MSW and realize the reuse of resources.Waste source separation is the fundamental prerequisite for ensuring effective recovery and recycling,and determines whether the entire waste resource and reduction process can be effectively carried out.To clarify the driving mechanism of waste separation behavior and to design and implement effective intervention policies based on this,it is of great significance to guide the residents' waste separation behavior and realize the recycling of waste.Based on the technology route of "raising problem,theoretical research,empirical research,deductive simulation research,solving problems",this paper takes the urban residents' waste separation behavior as the research object,and comprehensively uses basic theories and methods such as behavior science,psychology,and economics.A comprehensive path model including behavior driving,policy response,and policy simulation was studied deeply.The specific research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)Based on the process logic of the main body,standard,execution and goal of the waste separation behavior activities,the connotation of the urban residents' waste separation behavior is defined.From the perspective of behavior motivation and qualitative research,four dimensions of waste separation behavior are constructed and verified,including the waste separation behavior for habit,the waste separation behavior for decision,the waste separation behavior for relationship and the waste separation behavior for citizen.On this basis,the urban residents' waste separation behavior and its driving factors measurement scale were developed and tested.The descriptive statistical analysis found that the detection rate of the urban residents' waste separation behavior(45.78%)was higher,and the inferior characteristics of waste separation behavior for habit and waste separation behavior for citizen were particularly prominent.(2)Using qualitative research methods,the key driving factors of the urban residents' waste separation behavior are explored,and a theoretical model of the urban residents' waste separation behavior driving mechanism is constructed.The empirical test results of ANOVA analysis,multiple regression analysis and structural equation model show that there are significant differences in waste separation behavior in relation to age,marital status,education,political status,monthly income,monthly living expenses,family residential area,family members,family ranking,family monthly income,and tendency towards housework.Self-interest values,social-interest values,prevention focus,promotion focus,preferences for rhythm,preferences for quality and separation knowledge in individual psychological factors,product technical conditions in situational factors,facilities conditions,recognition of standard,trustworthiness for separation links,trustworthiness for collection,family norms,organization norms and community norms,reception of separation empowerment and its dimensions can directly predict the urban residents' waste separation behavior.There is a complete mediator effect in the relationship between the relatives-interest values,concerns of separation,preferences for quantity and the waste separation behavior,and there is some intermediary effect in the relationship between self-interest values,socialinterest values,separation knowledge,prevention focus,promotion focus,preferences for rhythm,preferences for quality and the waste separation behavior.The relationship between the facilities conditions,recognition of standard,trustworthiness for production links,trustworthiness for separation links,trustworthiness for collection and transportation links,and trustworthiness for disposal links has a significant adjustment effect on the relationship between perception of separation empowerment and the waste separation behavior.(3)Based on the "execution side" perspective and the attitude response model,the urban residents' waste separation behavior guidance model,including understanding,support will,execution will and willingness to drive,was constructed,and the response mechanism of urban residents to the waste separation behavior guidance policy was explored.The statistical analysis and the two response surface regression analysis showed that the public's understanding / support / execution / drive situation showed an approximate "inverted U" change,showing the characteristics of low understanding and willingness to drive,high support will and willingness to execute,and 42.51% of the individuals were in poor level of understanding of the waste separation behavior guidance policy.Willingness to support can significantly affect the public's willingness to execute policies,but knowing degree and support willingness can significantly predict the willingness to drive.In particular,the consistency of knowledge and willingness to support will respond to the willingness to execute,and the willingness to drive is "increasing".The willingness to execute and the willingness to drive are higher when the degree of understanding is consistent and higher with the two support will.(4)From the perspective of "execution and driving" of the behavior,the paper makes a policy simulation analysis on the urban residents' waste separation behavior under the information interaction mechanism and the cooperative classification mechanism,and explores the evolution mechanism of the formation and reappearance of the waste separation behavior.The results of simulation analysis show that:Under the information interaction intervention mechanism,the interactive intervention of the policy situation factors and the biased information in the fixed response validity situation makes the learning rate of the individual habit type classification behavior higher than the rate of self-learning.The most critical three kinds of policy situation intervention factors are trustworthiness for production links,trustworthiness for separation links,and facilities conditions.In the situation of different response validity,the high response rate of policy and low support of high understanding make the individual have higher learning rate at the early stage of simulation,and the learning rate of low response validity and low understanding is lower and is the same as self-learning.As the number of simulation steps increased,the learning rate decreased faster in the scenario of low degree of understanding and high support response validity.The learning rate under the situation of low support and low support response validity was slightly decreased,followed by a trend of rising and then decreasing,and after a period of time,it exceeded the learning rate under the situation of low understanding and high support response validity.In the later stage of evolutionary simulation,the probability of perceived benefit and occurrence probability of behavior under different response validity scenarios showed convergence.In the whole simulation process,high response validity leads to the rapid formation and reappearance of the classification behavior under the information interaction intervention mechanism,and the slow rate of behavior convergence is the slowest under low response validity.In the cooperative mechanism,the cooperative mechanism of waste separation was constructed,which was influenced and supervised by individuals.Further the study explored the formation conditions of the interpersonal cooperative mechanism in the process of waste separation using the evolutionary game method.The results show that during independent separation,individuals tend to exhibit “free-rider” behavior regardless of whether restraint measures were imposed by government,which result in the failure of government policy.In cooperative separation,the evolutionary stability strategy of individuals was cooperative separation or non-separation.Furthermore,an effective and stable cooperative relationship among individuals should be developed to promote the public's active participation in waste separation.The stability of this relationship was determined by cooperative costs and government restraints because cooperative benefit is a necessary factor to achieve this relationship.A numerical simulation was performed to simulate the effects of parameters adjustment on the evolution of separation behaviors through the Matlab algorithm.Finally,according to the results of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,the urban residents' waste separation behavior intervention policy suggestions were proposed from the perspective of behavior-driven,policy implementation and the actual operation of the mechanism,which can provide guidance for effective guidance of urban residents' waste separation behavior.