Model Establishment And Case Application Of Intelligent Generation Of Emergency Technical Plan For Sudden Water Pollution

In this thesis,sudden river chemical spill was taken as the research object,aiming at the main technical problems involved in dealing with sudden water pollution incidents disposal domesticly,on the basis of full investigation of current research status and development trend at home and abroad,research was carried out on the water quality prediction,emergency disposal start discrimination,emergency disposal technologies screening and evaluation,emergency disposal materials screening and evaluation.Wavelet denoising and chaos maximum Lyapunov index model is established to predict water quality for water pollution,and verified and analyzed through actual cases of Huai River and Potomac River.The model has the advantages of simple computation and can overcome the impact of large data fluctuations.Through the verification and analysis of COD concentration prediction in Huai River,the results show that the maximum relative error of the model is 15.66%,and the average relative error is 6.15%.Comparing with artifical neural network(ANN)model,autoregressuve moving average(ARMA)model and the simple chaotic maximum Lyapunov index prediction model,the wavelet and chaos maximum Lyapunov index model has higher prediction accuracy.Comparing with the prediction of monitoring data of DO concentration in the monitoring station of DO data of the Potomac River in USA(the monitoring period was 15min)and Huai River Basin in China(the monitoring period was one week),the results show that the maximum relative error of the Potomac River is 4.76%,which is 1.35% lower than that of Huai River;and the average relative error is 1.18%,which is 1.17% lower than that of Huai River.Therefore,short time interval data time series have higher prediction accuracy.Emergency disposal start discrimination model for sudden water pollution is established based on water pollution threat degree and entropy weight G1 method.The subjective objective entropy weight G1 method,not only keeps the advantages of subjective G1 method in clear thinking and simple calculation,but also inherits the objectivity of entropy method.The threat degree of the pollution characteristic of the sudden water pollution to the downstream water intake is calculated.Then the emergency disposal start discrimination model is applied to determine whether to start the emergency disposal technologies screening process immediately.The emergency disposal start discrimination model is applied to the aniline pollution event of Zhuozhang River,the calculation results show that the threat degree of the water pollution to Handan is 76.842,and the evaluation grade is grade I(especially major threat).Therefore,it can be concluded that it is necessary to start the emergency disposal technologies screening process immediately for emergency treatment.Emergency disposal technologies preliminary screening model based on entropy weight G1 method and CBR case retrieval technology,emergency disposal technologies depth screening and evaluation model based on interval triangular fuzzy function method and TOPSIS multi attribute group decision model are used to screen and evaluate the emergency technologies for sudden water pollution.Introducing the triangular fuzzy number can better meet the fuzzy characteristics of the water pollution event information;using the interval number to express the upper and lower limits of the triangular fuzzy number can describe the decision information more objectively and completely;entropy weight G1 method can make the result of empowerment more objectivity and rationality.The two-step model is applied to the aniline pollution event of Zhuozhang River,the screening results indicate that the depth screening and evaluation value of "adding coagulant + active carbon dam interception technology" is 0.7637,which is higher than that in the preliminary screening model.The technology screened by the method is in accordance with the actual technology,and is in agreement with the results of other screening methods reported in the literature,which is also verified the reliability and feasibility of the method.Emergency disposal materials need to be selected after the confirmation of the emergency disposal technology for sudden water pollution.In this research,the emergency disposal materials preliminary screening model based on entropy weight G1 method with CBR case retrieval technology,the emergency disposal materials depth screening and optimal model based on multi CBR model and differential-driven case correction strategy(DDRS)are used to choose the optimal emergency disposal materials.The establishment of this model has made up for the defects of the previous subjective decision-making in the emergency disposal materials for sudden water pollution emergency treatment.The model is applied to the aniline leakage pollution incident of Zhuozhang River,the results show that,the solution of the most similar working condition(similarity 80%)is "shell charcoal + polymerized ferric chloride + polyacrylamide" with the emergency disposal materials preliminary screening model.Further application of the emergency disposal materials depth screening and optimal model is used to optimize the initial screening results.The results are "coconut shell charcoal + polymerized ferric chloride + polyacrylamide",which is further proved that the model has strong practicability and feasibility.Overall,based on the Visual Studio platform,C # language and MATLAB language,the intelligent generation model frame of emergency disposal technical plans for sudden water pollution is established,and the decision-making support system platform and model group are integrated development.Focusing on the preparation of emergency disposal technical plan and the genertaion of emergency disposal technical scheme,the general framework of intelligent generation of three-step emergency disposal technical plan for sudden water pollut,and dynamic intelligent generation system of emergency disposal technical plan are established,including water quality prediction,emergency disposal start discrimination,emergency disposal technologies screening and evaluation,emergency disposal materials screening and optimization.Also a software system platform is developed,which is used to generate the complete decision-making support model group.The three-step model and software system were verified by the case of phenol pollution incident in Xin'an River.The results show that the technology system is subjective and objective,and has strong practicability and feasibility.The system of emergency disposal technologies screening and evaluation model established in this study has improved the efficiency and effect of emergency treatment for sudden water pollution,as well as provided scientific guidance for the emergency disposal technologies screening for sudden water pollution.