| There are many dangerous and harmful factors in the production process of hazardous chemical enterprises,and the risks are relatively high.Strengthening the analysis of the risks in the production process of enterprises is a major industrial accident prevention and control method which is commonly used in the world.It is also an important task for dangerous chemical enterprises to eliminate safety hazards,prevent accidents and build a long-term mechanism for safe production.At present,there are more than 70%of large cities in China,more than half of the population,and more than 75%of industrial production enterprises are distributed in areas with frequent natural disasters.However,most of the current hazardous chemical enterprises lack the awareness of corporate risk management and control under the influence of earthquake disaster,and focus on the prevention and control of industrial hazards.When multiple hazard factors(ie natural disaster factors and industrial disaster factors)coexist,the results of the accident risk analysis often differ greatly from the actual situation.Therefore,the research on the theory and method of comprehensive risk analysis of hazardous chemicals storage tanks and tank areas under the influence of earthquake disasters can provide theoretical and technical support for the effective prevention and control of production safety accidents in hazardous chemicals enterprises.According to the analysis results of accident statistics case,hazardous chemical storage tank is an important component of the production equipment of hazardous chemical enterprises,and also the main source of accidents in tank areas.Therefore,effectively improving the risk management and prevention and control level of hazardous chemicals storage tank accidents is the prerequisite for effective control of the overall accident risk in the tank area.Based on this,this paper focuses on the analysis of the comprehensive risk evolution process of hazardous chemicals storage tanks under the influence of earthquake disasters,and establishes a quantitative calculation model for coupled risk of hazardous chemicals storage tank accidents.Furthermore,on the basis of fully considering the impact of natural disaster hazard factors on the tank system,production management system and production support system,a quantitative calculation method for comprehensive risk assessment of hazardous chemicals storage tank areas is established.The main research results are as follows:(1)Comprehensive analysis of natural disaster hazards,energy carriers,and the evolution process of hazardous chemicals storage tank accidents under the comprehensive effect of production system environment,the system model for the occurrence and evolution of industrial accidents in hazardous chemicals storage tank production facilities is established.In the process of accident evolution analysis,the earthquake disaster hazard factor is introduced,which form the risk analysis process of the multi-hazard factor accident,which make the hazard factor analysis more comprehensive.At the same time,in the accident risk analysis,the non-single industrial accident type risk analysis is adopted,and the accident coupling phenomenon when multiple industrial accident types coexisted is considered,which make the comprehensive risk calculation and analysis of the hazardous chemical storage tank more reasonable.(2)Taking the earthquake disaster hazard factor and the hazardous chemical tank storage system as the research object,the calculation model of the failure probability of hazardous chemicals storage tank under the influence of earthquake disaster is established.In the process of industrial factor disaster analysis,based on fuzzy set theory and FTA accident tree analysis technology,a fuzzy accident tree analysis method(Fz-FTA)for hazardous chemicals storage tank accidents triggered by industrial hazard factors is established,which effectively solved the the problem that the probability of failure of basic hazard factor events with ambiguity and uncertainty is difficult to accurately quantify.In the process of earthquake disaster factor analysis,combined with structural reliability analysis theory,through the mapping transformation method and nonlinear regression numerical analysis,the calculation model of tank failure probability under the influence of different PGA seismic peak acceleration is obtained.(3)Through the application of Gaussian model,thermodynamics and explosion mechanics related theories and methods,the author studies and constructs the different accident consequence prediction models of hazardous chemical equipment under different industrial accident scenes,and based on Matlab GUI programming tool,realizes the design and development of software for the consequences of hazardous chemicals storage tank industry accidents,which can provide technical support for enterprise security management personnel to quickly and accurately predict and analyze the consequences of accidents.(4)Based on the theory and method of system dynamics,the accident coupling phenomenon and the coupling risk evolution mechanism of hazardous chemicals storage tank are studied.The system flow diagram of accident risk evolution of hazardous chemicals storage tank is constructed.The concept of "force vector synthesis" is introduced,and the effect of accident coupling is described visually.Through the setting of the correlation coefficient of coupling effect,the comprehensive risk quantitative calculation model of hazardous chemical equipment is established.The comprehensive risk calculation results of hazardous chemicals storage tank and Matlab+Surfer mapping technology have been organically combined to realize the visualization of hazardous chemicals storage tank risks.On the basis of considering the failure probability of the protective layer,the residual risk analysis model of "tie knot"is proposed,and the residual risk analysis and calculation method for the risk protection system of hazardous chemicals storage tank is established.(5)The Chinese dangerous chemical accidents are analyzed statistically.The accident types and main risk influencing factors of the hazardous chemicals storage tank area are obtained.The comprehensive risk assessment index system and quantitative model of the accident in storage tank area are established.Fire,explosion and leakage of toxic and hazardous substances are the main types of accidents in the production process of hazardous chemicals storage tanks,accounting for 76.72%of the total number of accidents.Fire,explosion and leakage of toxic and hazardous substances are the main types of accidents in the production process of hazardous chemicals storage tanks area,accounting for 76.72%of the total number of accidents.The factors affecting the risk of accidents in the tank area mainly come from the safety quality of the employees,the safe production conditions of the tank equipment,the technical conditions of safe production and the safety management system of the tank area.According to the grey characteristics of the primary selection indicators and the correlation between the indicators,the gray correlation theory and method are used to establish the gray clustering multi-level analysis method,and the optimal combination of the primary selection index system is realized.The author combines the extension theory with the analytic hierarchy process,and proposes a new EAHP-ESAM analysis method,and establishes the comprehensive risk quantitative calculation model for hazardous chemical storage tank area.The overall risk assessment of the hazardous chemical storage tank area is realized.(6)Based on the above research results,the Dongcao chemical enterprise is selected as the engineering example.Through the actual engineering application on site,the quantitative calculation and analysis method for the comprehensive risk of hazardous chemicals storage tank and tank zone under the influence of earthquake disasters can better reflect the real accident risk situation of hazardous chemical enterprise,and it can provide theoretical and technical support for the further improvement of the risk management and control system of the hazardous chemical enterprise. |
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