The Research On Regional Disaster Risk And Its Assessment Based On Hazard-affected Body

In recent years, many disasters occurred frequently in the worldwide, which have caused tremendous casualty and estate loss. The happening time, region and type of the disaster are usually uncertain. Therefore regional disaster risk assessment is needed in urgent, and based on the assessment results, the disaster management can be performed in advance, rather than response passively after the disaster, and provide the reference for government to recognize risk and take actions.After the occurrence of the disaster, the range of the happened region is always extensive, lacking of the history data and the consequences are not limited to one type of disaster. The disaster risk is highly extensive and uncertain. Therefore there is need to study regional disaster risk and its assessment systematically based on the disaster formation and evolvement mechanism. From the perspective of the system theory, this paper analyze the regional disaster formation and evolvement mechanism based on hazard-affected body, and research in assessing regional disaster that is considered as integrated results of hazards, regional hazard-affected body exposure, regional hazard-affected body vulnerability, regional hazard-affected body relations and regional emergency response capability. The result of the risk is expressed as the loss of hazard-affected body, which can represent the dynamic and uncertainty of regional disaster risk. This paper not only studies the key factors of regional disaster risk, but also attempted to combine all the factors to establish regional disaster risk evaluation model. Above all the main contents are as follows:Firstly, this paper made an explanation of the region, regional disaster system and regional disaster risk evaluation concepts, illustrated the meaning of each element in details, analyzed the key effect of hazard-affected body further, and finally purposed the framework of regional disaster risk and its assessment.Secondly, this paper analyzed the indicators of regional hazard-affected body exposure, based on the statistics data of yearbook, then used SOM to cluster the regional hazard-affected body exposure to achieve the result of regional exposure similarity, and reflect the regional disaster risk similarity from the perspective of the regional exposure.Thirdly, through analyzing the relationship between emergency response actions and regional disaster consequences, this paper established the logical process of emergency response to be the evaluation template of contingency plans, utilized the process similarity calculation method to evaluate the validity of the contingency plans which are used in a certain region for some certain types of the disaster, and the result can be used as the quantitative assessment result of the region emergency response capability.Finally, considering all the essential elements of the region disaster risk evaluation, this paper constructed the network model of hazard-affected body statuses, and determined the evolvement rules of hazard-affected body statuses which are affected by each factor. The statuses of hazard-affected bodies in different stages are used to reflect the dynamic of regional disaster risk. Then the simulation is used to analyze the regional disaster risk and the effects of regional emergency response capability, which provided references for the government to make strategies of emergency response.This paper regarded region as the research object, which can make regional disaster risk assessment more specific. And from the perspective of the system theory, this paper analyzed the key effects of hazard-affected bodies based on the formation and evolvement mechanism of disaster, and established the framework of regional disaster risk and its assessment, which can provide ideas of recognizing and assessing regional disaster risk. This paper also used both practice study and system simulation to provide the reference for government to response to disaster.