Research On Management Technology For Emergency Handling Of Expressway Emergencies

Nowadays,China has reached the international advanced level in terms of the information acquisition technology and platform construction of expressways,but the ability of data processing,analysis,judgment and inference,as well as emergency management based on decision support in the emergency handling of expressway emergencies still needs to be improved.Highway emergency data analysis and disposal decision-making are the key issues in highway emergency management.Based on the in-depth study of the characteristics and mechanism of the evolution of expressway emergencies,this paper puts forward four key management technologies for emergency handling of expressway emergencies,including expressway emergency situation assessment,road network traffic information prediction,rescue vehicle guidance and emergency evacuation technology.(1)The paper studies the disaster factors,characteristics and evolution mechanism of expressway emergencies.Expressway emergencies are characterized by suddenness,uncertainty,phase,sociality and systemicity Based on the characteristics of its development situation,the whole process of the occurrence and development of expressway emergencies has gone through four major stages: gestation,occurrence,development and termination.It is further revealed that the development and evolution of expressway emergencies is the result of the interaction between the elements of the transportation system "man-vehicle-road-environment",and the mechanism and result of the interaction are different in different stages.(2)The paper establishes the highway emergency situation assessment model,and the Bayesian network structure and conditional probability are determined through experts and historical data,using the joint tree algorithm to inference probability inference results under the different conditions of emergency,as well as to achieve the highway emergency response situation assessment and decision support.(3)The paper establishes a real-time/time-varying road network traffic information strategy model.The model has lower average absolute error and average relative error than the current widely used ARIMA model and machine learning BP neural network model.The model can overcome the lack of historical traffic volume data and the sudden increase of traffic volume due to the suddenness of events.It can still achieve high-precision predictive assistant decision-making in the context of sudden emergent features.(4)The paper establishes the optimization model of highway emergency rescue vehicle induction.Based on the path decision strategy combined with real-time/time-varying information proposed in this paper,the information of traffic conditions and potential risks in transit is included in the emergency rescue vehicle induction model of expressway.In the middle,the reliability characteristics of the road section meet the driver's driving psychological needs,which further enhances the reliability of the rescue route.(5)The paper establishes the emergency evacuation control model of expressway emergency road network,which adjusts the evacuation route and evacuation strategy according to the real-time/time-varying road network traffic information,and combines the dynamic traffic system optimal control theory to construct the control model of road network emergency evacuation and designs the algorithm for constructing paths and assignments.