Research On Emission Reduction Potential Of China's Industrial Air Pollutants Based On Environmental Learning Curve

Industrial air pollution is a key problem restricting China's sustainable development and ecological civilization construction.However,there is a contradiction between the reduction of industrial air pollutant emissions and economic development.It is of great importance to formulate a more precise emission reduction plan for mitigating the conflict between emission reduction and economic development under the green development trend.In view of this,this dissertation describes the environmental cost of industrial air pollutant emission reduction by constructing the environmental learning curve and measures the emission reduction potential of industrial air pollutants to provide theoretical reference for achieving green development.This dissertation defines the concept of environmental learning curve,proves the existence and rationality of environmental learning curve in theory by means of production function and traditional learning curve,and analyzes three characteristics of environmental learning curve.The influence of environmental learning on industrial air pollutants intensity is analyzed through the perspective of intensity effect and substitution effect.The theoretical framework of industrial air pollutant emission reduction based on environmental learning curve is constructed to lay a theoretical foundation for subsequent chapters.This include four aspects: analysis and examination of environmental learning curve,the influence path of environmental learning on industrial air pollutants intensity,emission intensity and potential of industrial air pollutants,and measurement and trend of emission reduction potential of industrial air pollutants.On the basis of theoretical analysis,the relationship between environmental learning curve and industrial air pollutants intensity is examined by regression analysis.First,the econometric model of environmental learning curve is constructed based on its theoretical model and examined by the industrial panel data of various regions in China.Second,the overall and regional impact of environmental learning on industrial air pollutants intensity are analyzed.Last,the influence path of environmental learning on industrial air pollutants intensity is examined by mediating effect model.The results show that there is a causal relationship between environmental learning and industrial air pollutants intensity.There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between industrial air pollutants intensity and learning-by-doing,learning-by-researching as well as learning-by-importing.That is,the industrial air pollutants intensity first rises and then falls with the enhancement of environmental learning.The eastern region reaches the turning point first,followed by the central,northeast and western regions.In addition,learning-by-doing,learning-by-researching and learning-by-importing can reduce industrial air pollutants intensity by improving energy efficiency.Learning-by-doing and learning-by-importing can influence industrial air pollutants intensity by energy structure.Yet,the coefficient under this influence path is positive due to the lock-in effect of learning-by-doing and learning-by-importing on energy structure.Based on the environmental learning curve model,an intensity reduction potential model of industrial air pollutants is constructed.Moreover,a measurement method of the total emission reduction potential of industrial air pollutants is constructed based on the index of intensity reduction potential of industrial air pollutants.The results show that the intensity reduction potential of China's industrial air pollutants ranges from 26.5% to 33.5%.The 5 provinces with the smallest intensity reduction potential from low to high are Beijing,Shanghai,Hainan,Liaoning and Heilongjiang.The 5 provinces with the greatest intensity reduction potential from high to low are Shanxi,Henan,Jiangxi,Hubei and Shanxi.Additionally,the provinces in eastern China,such as Hebei and Shandong,have the great potential to reduce the total emission of industrial air pollutants.Finally,this dissertation constructs different emission reduction scenarios of industrial air pollutants based on industrial output,environmental learning,environmental regulation,industrial structure and energy structure.Six different development scenarios are predicted according to the stringency of environmental regulation and the development level of industrial output,including BAU scenario,BSE scenario,LWE scenario,LSE scenario,HWE scenario and HSE scenario.The intensity and total emission reduction potential of industrial air pollutants in each province are analyzed under the six scenarios according to corresponding formulas.The results show that the intensity and total emission reduction potential of industrial air pollutants under six scenarios from low to high are LSE scenario,HSE scenario,BSE scenario,HWE scenario,BAU scenario and LWE scenario.That is,stringent environmental regulation is conducive to reducing the intensity and total emission reduction of industrial air pollutants.The central and western regions have great potential for reducing industrial air pollutants intensity in China;Shanxi,Hubei,Hebei,Jiangsu,Shandong,Henan,Guizhou,Fujian,Hunan and Guangxi have great potential for reducing the total emission of industrial air pollutants in China.The total emission reduction potential of Shanxi Province is the largest in terms of both emission reduction rate and ratio under BAU,LWE and LSE scenario.On this basis,the strategies for reducing industrial air pollutants in China are put forward to promote the reduction of industrial air pollutants and accelerate the construction of ecological civilization and the realization of green development goals.