Research On Carbon Emission Scenario Analysis And Emission Reduction Cost Of Macao Based On LEAP Model

The current global climate change situation is increasingly urgent,and low-carbon development has become the common concept of the world.As the largest carbon-emitting country in the world,China will take on more and more responsibility.As a special administrative region of China,Macao has its own unique characteristics in economic development,energy structure and carbon emissions.Therefore,the study on the carbon emission forecast and emission reduction cost of the Macao is very important.The paper investigates the social economic structure,energy demand department,energy policy and carbon status of Macao,and builds the energy demand development model of Macao through the LEAP model and sets up the baseline scenario,policy scenario,low-carbon scenario and economic slowdown scenario to study the CO₂emission of Macao in the future.On the basis of the study of emission,the paper studies the difference of carbon emission in different departments in 2040 under the baseline scenario and the low carbon scenario,the corresponding policy influencing factors,and the additional costs caused by the relevant energy saving and emission reduction policies.The results of the study show that the carbon emission of Macao will reach a peak of6.46 million tons of CO₂ in 2029.In the policy scenario,with the optimization of commercial construction and land transport activity,the peak of carbon emissions in Macao will drop to 5.34 million tons of CO₂.In the low-carbon scenario,with the impact of low-carbon policies such as high-performance replacement of electric and commercial buildings,as well as the promotion of electric vehicles and natural gas buses,the peak year of carbon emissions will be 2018,and the peak will be 4.57 million tons CO₂.While the economic slowdown,Macao's carbon emissions peak will be 4.84 million tons of CO₂.As for emission reduction measures,the promotion of natural gas buses,lights replacement in casinos,and air-conditioning system promotation in commercial building have a higher emission reduction benefits.Finally,based on the above research basis,the paper raises up relevant energy saving and emission reduction policies and strategic suggestions to Macao.