Regional Heterogeneity Of The Impact Of Urbanization On Carbon Emission

Global warming is one of the major concerns of the international community.According to the assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change(IPCC),the increase in carbon dioxide concentration is the main cause of global warming.China,as the world's largest carbon emitter,faces great pressure to reduce carbon emissions.China's rapid urbanization has provided a strong impetus for economic and social development.As the agglomeration place of population and industrial activities,city is the concentration place of consumption resources.On the other hand,it is the place where social transformation,institutional innovation and technological innovation take place,thus bringing efficient energy-saving and emission reduction technologies and carbon emission system.So will urbanisation drive carbon emissions or will it curb them? From the current research,the academic community has not reached a consistent conclusion on the relationship between the two.In view of this,this paper studies the key issues such as the mechanism of urbanization affecting carbon emissions,the regional differentiation of urbanization affecting carbon emissions,and the threshold effect of urbanization affecting carbon emissions,so as to draw relatively comprehensive and objective conclusions,and provide theoretical support for the formulation and implementation of urbanization strategies and energy-saving and emission reduction policies.On the basis of summarizing and summarizing the domestic and foreign research literature,this paper first discusses the mechanism of the impact of urbanization on carbon emission from three aspects: transmission mechanism,spatial effect and the impact of different stages of urbanization.Secondly,on the basis of analyzing the current situation of urbanization and carbon emissions,the spatial panel model is used to empirically analyze the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions,and the transmission channel of urbanization to carbon emissions is further verified by stepwise regression method.Then,on the basis of analyzing the status quo of urbanization and carbon emission regional differentiation,empirical analysis was made on the difference of the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions in the east,central and western regions,and further verified the transmission channels of the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions in the three regions.Finally,the threshold effect of urbanization on carbon emissions is analyzed empirically in order to find out the reasons why urbanization affects carbon emissions differently in eastern,central and western regions.The main research conclusions of this paper are as follows:First,the effect of urbanization on carbon emissions is the result of indirect transmission of intermediate variables.In this process,both the spatial effect and the stage of urbanization will affect the direction and intensity of the effect of urbanization on carbon emissions.Specifically,urbanization affects carbon emissions mainly through intermediate variables such as human capital,technological innovation,industrial structure and household consumption.Considering the spatial effect,the carbon emission in this region is not only affected by the relevant factors in this region,but also affected by the carbon emission and related factors in neighboring regions.At different stages of urbanization,the impact of the improvement of urbanization level on human capital,technological innovation,industrial structure and household consumption will be different,thus leading to different impacts of urbanization level on carbon emissions at different stages of urbanization.Second,The result of gini coefficient of urbanization and carbon emission shows that the level of urbanization and carbon emission are distinct in different regions.In terms of urbanization level,urbanization has significant regional differences at the provincial level.But regional differences are narrowing.From the perspective of the differences and evolution trends within the three regions,the differences of urbanization levels within the eastern region and the central region show a downward trend,while the differences of urbanization levels within the western region are not obvious.From the perspective of carbon emissions,the gini coefficient of China's provincial level of carbon emissions shows that the regional differences in carbon emissions have not changed much.Within the three regions,the gap between eastern and western regions is widening,but the gap between the provinces in the central region is narrowing.Thirdly,at the national level,the improvement of urbanization level drives carbon emissions,which have a significant positive spatial correlation.From the perspective of transmission channels,the improvement of urbanization will lead to the increase of human capital,technological innovation,industrial structure and household consumption.Human capital,technological innovation,industrial structure and household consumption drive carbon emissions.Fourth,at the regional level,the impacts of urbanization on carbon emissions are significantly different.Urbanization in eastern regions significantly inhibits carbon emissions,while urbanization in central and western regions increases carbon emissions.From the perspective of transmission channel,the improvement of urbanization level in eastern,central and western regions will lead to the increase of human capital,technological innovation,industrial structure and household consumption,but the promotion effect of urbanization on each intermediate variable is different in eastern,central and western regions.From the impact of intermediate variables on carbon emissions,the industrial structure and household consumption in the eastern region have little driving intensity for carbon emissions,while human capital and technological innovation have obvious inhibiting effect on carbon emissions.Therefore,urbanization on the whole inhibits carbon emissions.The impact of human capital and technological innovation on carbon emissions in the central region is less than that of industrial structure and household consumption,so eventually urbanization will increase carbon emissions.In the western region,except technological innovation can curb carbon emissions,all other intermediate variables will increase carbon emissions,so the improvement of urban level will increase carbon emissions.Fifth,the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions has a significant threshold effect.When the level of urbanization is less than a certain threshold value,urbanization has a significant driving effect on carbon emissions,and when the level of urbanization exceeds a certain threshold value,urbanization will curb carbon emissions.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper believes that the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions is not always shown as a driving or inhibiting effect,but has a clear threshold feature.Different urbanization levels have different impacts on human capital,technological innovation,industrial structure and household consumption,and the effects of intermediate variables on carbon emissions will also be different.Therefore,this paper proposes to actively create an environment that uses urbanization to reduce carbon emissions by promoting balanced development of urbanization,optimizing human capital structure,promoting innovation of energysaving technologies,and advocating low-carbon consumption mode.