The Impact Of Carbon Emission Trading On The Development Of Renewable Energy

With the rapid economic development,the scale of energy consumption continues to expand,and the problems of over-exploitation of resources and air pollution are increasingly prominent,the low-carbon and green development path has become an important strategic choice for China and the World.The development of renewable energy has become an insuperable way to promote the development of low-carbon economy.However,the development of renewable energy mainly relies on government subsidies and lacks market competitiveness,and large subsidies will lead to financial overdraft.With the gradual elimination of government subsidies,the development of renewable energy cannot be supported by the government alone.Letting the market play a decisive role in the allocation of renewable energy resources is an important direction now and in the future.As a new market-oriented energy saving mechanism,carbon trading can not only achieve the purpose of energy saving and pollution control,but also promote the promotion of low-carbon energy saving technology and improve the overall social welfare.China is also actively establishing a carbon trading system,first announcing the establishment of a carbon trading system in 2011,and has set up seven carbon trading pilots nationwide.Companies can apply for renewable energy emission reduction projects to obtain voluntary emission reduction,and sell the surplus carbon quota through the carbon trading market for profits.However,existing studies have paid little attention to the relationship between carbon emissions trading and renewable energy.Clarifying the relationship between the carbon emission trading system and renewable energy is conducive to the realization of China's dual goals of green development and economic growth,and provides reference and inspiration for the policy choice of future energy development strategies.In order to deeply analyze the impact of carbon emission trading on the development of renewable energy,the following arrangements are made in this paper.First,the impact of carbon trading on renewable energy is studied from a micro perspective.Specifically,Chapter 4 uses the difference-in-difference(DID)method to test whether the implementation of carbon trading will promote the development of enterprise renewable energy and examine its possible impact mechanism.Chapter 5 discusses the impact of the introduction of carbon trading mechanism on the cost of power generation from the perspective of the cost of renewable energy power generation.Second,the impact of carbon trading on renewable energy is quantified from a macro perspective.Specifically,Chapter 6 uses CGE model to simulate the impact of single area carbon trading on renewable energy.On the basis of Chapter 6,Chapter 7 further constructs a dynamic multi-regional CGE model to compare and analyze the difference of the impact of carbon trading in a single province and across regions on renewable energy,laying a theoretical foundation for the connection between carbon trading pilots and the implementation of a national carbon trading market.Finally,based on the above research content,we put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.The innovation of this paper is reflected in three aspects.First,the research scope is expanded.Before,researches on the impact of carbon trading on the development of renewable energy were carried out in a certain aspect.This paper comprehensively and systematically analyzes the impact of carbon emission trading on the development of renewable energy,covering a relatively comprehensive content.Second,the depth of the research is extended.Previous research focused on the impact of carbon trading on renewable energy mainly about the national or regional level.This paper goes deep into the enterprise level.Third,on the technical level,based on the regional CGE model,this paper subdivides the power sector,introduces the carbon trading module,and quantitatively simulates and analyzes the impact of carbon trading on renewable energy.The main findings of this paper are as follows.First,DID model proves the effectiveness of carbon trading market implementation.On the one hand,it reduces carbon dioxide emissions;On the other hand,it promotes the growth of industrial economy and protects the environment while promoting economic growth,thus achieving the win-win situation of economic benefits and environmental benefits.At the micro level,the implementation of carbon trading pilot has a significant positive impact on the development of the renewable energy.Compared with technological innovation,enterprises are more inclined to influence revenue by adjusting resource allocation.In addition,the impact of environmental regulation on the development of renewable energy is a u-shaped trend,which means that with the increasingly strict environmental regulation,the promotion of renewable energy becomes more and more obvious.Second,based on the analysis of the cost of renewable energy,it is found that there is a negative correlation between the annual online volume and the cost,and a positive correlation between the initial investment,the discount rate,the operation and maintenance cost,and the cost of power generation.Through estimation,the cost of wind power is still higher than the benchmark price of coal,which is not competitive in the market.The introduction of carbon trading market has reduced the LCOE and improved the competitiveness of enterprises.Third,taking Hubei province as an example,the simulation results show that carbon trading has a negative impact on GDP,and with the increasingly strict carbon emission reduction control,the GDP loss is increasing.Although the economy has losses,it plays a role in adjusting the energy structure.The pressure to reduce carbon emissions increases the cost of using fossil fuels and directly affects the output of sectors that use fossil fuels as their main fuel.The thermal power industry uses a lot of fossil fuels,which increases the cost and reduces the output.Although the cost of hydropower industry has increased,its output has not decreased significantly compared with that of thermal power industry.The range of industry output and cost depends on the carbon price,which depends on regional carbon quotas and allocations.Therefore,it plays an important role in the development of regional renewable energy to rationally formulate regional carbon cap and industrial carbon allocation standard.Fourth,the simulation results of provincial and crossregional carbon trading show that carbon trading suppresses fossil energy consumption,leading to varying degrees of changes in the cost and output of energy-intensive products.In terms of energy structure adjustment,the consumption of renewable energy varies with the development level of different regions.For example,Hebei has a high proportion of heavy industry,and carbon trading has reduced the consumption of fossil energy,but not increased the demand for renewable energy.The implementation of cross-regional carbon trading can coordinate the economies of the three regions and optimize the allocation of funds,promote the development of renewable energy,and make up for the additional costs incurred by individual regions due to excessive emissions.In addition,cross-regional carbon trading reduces the economic impact,that is,the economic loss of cross-regional carbon trading is less than that of the three places implementing carbon trading alone.Specifically,if carbon trading is implemented separately,the GDP of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei will drop by 0.0066%,0.053% and 0.098% respectively.Under the cross-regional carbon trading,the GDP of the BeijingTianjin-Hebei region decreased by 0.0015%.Finally,according to the research conclusions,from the perspective of carbon emission trading,the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward: First,improving the carbon quota allocation system and strengthening the construction of carbon trading market system;Second,improving the carbon emission pricing mechanism to reduce risks in the carbon trading market.Third,expanding financing channels and improving the liquidity of carbon trading markets;Fourth,strengthening inter-regional cooperation in carbon emission trading;Fifth,optimizing the mechanism for certifying emission reduction projects.