Research On Economic Growth Effect Of China’s Energy Import

At the end of 1970 s,China opened up the curtain of reform and opening,gradually embarked on the road to prosperity and strength.With the stage of institutional changes,China’s economy has maintained a rapid growth rate for more than 30 years,created the remarkable ―East Asian Miracle‖.At the same time,with the development of the economy and the increasing input of factors,China’s energy consumption and external dependence are increasing.China’s National Economy and Social Development 13 th Five-Year Plan proposed that China’s economy should achieve balanced,inclusive and sustainable medium-high speed growth through the concept of innovation,coordination,green,openness and sharing.By 2020,the goal of doubling the total amount of GDP and the income of urban and rural residents over 2010 will be achieved,at the same time,the cumulative energy consumption per unit GDP will be reduced by 15%.With China’s economic development entering the "new normal",how can China’s economic development be smoothly stabilized from the past high speed growth to the medium-high speed growth range? What policy measures should China implement in terms of energy and external energy input to achieve sustained economic growth? How does external energy input which represents the most important characteristics of China’s contemporary energy international affect and support China’s economic growth?On the basis of empirical analysis and hypothesis testing on the influence of external energy input on economic growth,which represents the most important characteristics of China’s energy international trade,this paper studies the economic growth effect of China’s energy international trade.This paper attempts to provide valuable suggestions for the future development of China’s economy from the perspective of energy and energy international trade.To stabilize the rapid declining economic growth,China has launched an economic stimulus plan linked to the world,proposed "The Belt and Road‖ international regional economic cooperation and domestic supply-side structural reform initiatives,in order to improve the level and quality of economic growth.From the perspective of the fusion of Chinese and foreign energy civilization,this paper explores the sources of driving force of China’s potential economic growth in the past,analyzes the theoretical mechanism of endogenous technological progress and diffusion suitable for developing countries,and explores the new driving force of economic growth under the progress of endogenous energy civilization.This paper is divided into ten chapters.The first chapter is exordium,the proof & meaning of the topic,the research method and content as well as the main innovation point in this paper.The second chapter is the theoretical analysis of economic growth effect of energy import.This chapter focuses on the innovation and expansion of a series of theoretical models in the economic growth effects of energy imports.The third chapter is a review of the literature on empirical and hypothesis testing.This chapter mainly focuses on the main empirical literature review in the economic growth effect of energy import.Chapter 4th is the cause,characteristics and safety of China’s energy import.This chapter mainly introduces the causes and main characteristics of China’s energy import,as well as the safety analysis of energy import.Chapter 5th deals with the relationship between China’s energy import and economic growth.This chapter mainly studies the correlation and causality of China’s energy import and economic growth.Chapter 6th is the causality test of energy import trade and energy price.This chapter mainly analyzes the causality between the net import of crude oil and the international crude oil price from the perspective of China and the United States.Chapter 7th deals with international energy prices and China’s economic growth.On the basis of studying the causes of the change of international energy price in the last chapter,the influence of international energy price on domestic energy price and economic growth is discussed.Chapter 8th is the value flow and cost transfer of external energy among industries.This chapter mainly analyzes the direct external energy value input of each industry in China,as well as the implicit external energy value in various industries and types of products.Chapter 9th is an analysis of the contribution of China’s energy import to economic growth.Based on the analysis of the output contribution of each factor in China’s economic growth,this chapter probes into the influence of China’s energy import trade on the factor’s contribution to economic growth and the impact of China’s energy import trade on total factor productivity(TFP)which represents technological progress.In this chapter external energy output premium and biased technological progress also have been analyzed from the perspective of energy civilization integration.Chapter 10 th is the summary and discussion of the research.This chapter summarizes the conclusions of this paper and the future research is also prospected.This paper mainly draws the following conclusions through theoretical research and empirical test.1.There is a significant positive correlation between the net energy import which represents the main characteristics of China’s energy international trade and the annual increment of China’s GDP,and there is a more significant causal relationship between the net energy import and the annual increment of China’s GDP.There is no causal relationship between China’s net crude oil imports and international crude oil price,while there is a significant correlation between US crude oil net imports and international crude oil price.The change of US crude oil net import volume dominates the change of international crude oil price.China is only a passive recipient of international crude oil prices.International crude oil prices have a significant negative impact on China’s economic growth.From 1998 to 2015,the growth of external energy input had a greater impact on the technological progress in early China than on the latter.2.Value flow and cost transfer of energy imports differ between industries and final demand categories.Judging from the transfer of external energy value in 2011,fixed assets formation has shared the total external energy cost 38%,exports 30%,resident consumption 20%,government consumption and inventory increase 9% and 3% respectively.In terms of the final output of the industry,the largest share of the cost of external energy is in the construction industry.In addition,the manufacturing of electrical and optical equipment and chemical products has also shared more of the absolute cost of external energy.The value intensity of external energy in the final product of the industry,highest industry Coke&Refined Petroleum and Nuclear Fuel 32.8%,secondary Air Transport 9.93%,then Chemicals & Chemical Products 8.69%,Water Transport 8.6%.In 2011 external energy cost intensity among China’s three major final demand categories was export 2.87%,gross fixed capital formation2.23%,final consumption expenditure by households1.61%.3.China has the external energy output premium supported by the biased technological progress based on the characteristics of external input energy.The output premium of external energy supported by the biased technological progress reached its peak in 2007,and then declined precipitously.The evidence of biased technological progress supporting China’s last cycle of economic growth based on the characteristics of external energy input is clear.The technological research and development model based on collaborative innovation and innovation alliance is conducive to endogenous technological progress and diffusion in developing countries.The speed and scale of technology diffusion have a multiplier effect on net economic output.In the integration of Chinese and foreign energy civilization China’s contemporary technological progress and management system are innovated,and there are technological progress features based on the external input of oil and gas consumption.China’s energy civilization and the last round of economic growth were promoted by the biased technological advances in the characteristics of external oil and natural gas consumption,and came to an end after reaching its peak in 2007.This coincides with what mainstream economists believe is a sharp downward trend in China’s underlying economic growth since 2007.The development and diffusion of endogenous energy technology based on the characteristics of internal energy endowment will help China realize the strategy of catching up with and surpassing the economic development and civilization progress,and gradually get rid of the former path dependence and step out of the "middle income trap" that may fall into.On the basis of empirical analysis and hypothesis testing of the effects of external energy input on economic growth,this paper studies the economic growth effect of China’s energy international trade,also attempts to provide valuable suggestions for the future development of China’s economy from the perspective of energy and energy international trade.