Research On The Development Of Abidjan Port In Ivory Coast Based On China Africa Cooperation

Due to the current fast economic growth of their countries and the high revenue that can be made from container shipping business,many developing countries throughout the world,are working hard to develop their ports in order to attract more investors and meet up the port's hinterland demand of foreign goods.This is the case of Abidjan port in Ivory Coast.This study aims to solve the problematic of the Abidjan port development in Ivory Coast.It is formed of eight chapters.Firstly,the research background,objectives,questions are introduced before determining the scope of the study,the significance of the research,the research methodology,the structure of the research paper and mentioning the limitations of this study.Then,the literature review that covers studies related to port development issues,container throughput forecasting,trade potential,port efficiency,port management model,port-hinterland connectivity and assessment of factors,is introduced and the difference between this research paper and those studies is clearly explained.Secondly,the Ivory Coast ports part landlord,part public service port management model is presented,the ports development phases are analyzed and the different challenges faced by this combined port management model are introduced.A qualitative methodology is applied.Results of the analysis demonstrate that the current combined port management used in the ports in Ivory Coast has increased the bribery level within the ports and does not give all the guarantees to potential investors.Then the Abidjan port hinterland is presented and the qualitative methodology is applied again to analyze the challenges present in the Abidjan port-hinterland connectivity.The results found has revealed that the poor quality of roads and railways,the lack of a new dry port in Ivory Coast,the insecurity present in the Abidjan port-hinterland corridor are some of the challenges that greatly affect the fluidity of the Abidjan port-hinterland connectivity.Thirdly,the impact of the China "One Belt One Road" initiative on the development of Abidjan port is analyzed by the Chinese investment in Abidjan port and the trade potential between China and Ivory Coast.The Gravity Model is applied through a Hausman test and an empirical test to determine the significant variables affecting the bilateral trade between the two countries.During the application of the Hausman test,the fixed effect model was found to be the most appropriate model to use.The results found,showed that the population and the gross domestic product(GDP)are the two factors which have a great influence on the bilateral trade between these two countries.Based on the empirical test results,a prediction of the trade value between China and six West African countries is made.It has been found that there is a large trade potential between China and Ivory Coast.The time series model is used with the autoregressive model to forecast the China export trade value to Ivory Coast from 2016 to 2018.Then,the SWOT model is applied with the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)through the Delphi method and the design of questionnaires survey,in order to give a concrete rank of the main internal and external factors that hinder the development of Abidjan port.The results found after the application of the SWOT-AHP hybrid model show that the benefits from financial support of private investors and Ivory Coast's government is the most important strength of Abidjan port,the high level of corruption in the port has been found to be the biggest weakness of Abidjan port,the financial support available from China is the biggest opportunity that Abidjan port has and the high risk of political instability in Ivory Coast is the biggest threat threatening the development of Abidjan port.Abidjan port has more strengths than weaknesses and more opportunities than threats.Fourthly,several forecasting models which are the Grey Model,the Linear Regression Model,the Double Exponential Smoothing Model and the Combination Forecast Model are applied to find the most suitable model that can accurately forecast the Abidjan Port Container Throughput volume.Much software and the Shapley value method have been used.After the application of each forecasting model,their results have been compared with the mean absolute percentage error.From their results,the Double Exponential Smoothing Model got 4%,hence it is the forecasting model with the smallest error.This model has been found to have the best data available on the research work,becoming at the same time,the best forecasting model for the Abidjan port container throughput.The accuracy of this model has been tested when forecasting the Abidjan port container throughput from 2014 up to 2016.The results found have confirmed that the Double Exponential Smoothing Model gives accurate results in this particular case.It is finally used to forecast the Abidjan Port Container throughput volume for the period covering the year 2017 up to the year 2018.Then the East and West African major ports efficiency over time are measured and analyzed using the Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA)Window Analysis four-year window covering a period from 2009 to 2016.A comparison of port efficiency between East and West African ports is then made based on the results found.The findings show that though West African ports have bigger ports size and have a higher Container throughput volume compared to East African ports,these ports are in general less efficient than East African ports.Abidjan port has been found inefficient.Finally,the research concludes by giving some suggestions on two angles,the Ivory Coast strategies and the Abidjan port strategies,as both entities should unify their strengths in order to develop Abidjan port.It is suggested that on one hand the Ivory Coast government should modify the port governance framework,benefit from the China "One Belt One Road" initiative,build a new dry port in Ivory Coast and improve transportation facilities and security.On the other hand,Abidjan port authorities should promote competition between private investors,improve the quality of services,improve the quality of infrastructure and apply the mini-maxi strategy.Based on all the findings of this research work,the author ends the paper by recommending some topics on which research can be done by other researchers in the future.