Research On The Optimization Of China’s Regional Industrial Structure Based On The Analysis Of Sources Of Energy Consumption Growth

In 2016,the Chinese government promised that the energy consumption is aimed to be kept within six billion tonnes of standard coal equivalent by 2030.Meanwhile,natural gas and non-fossil energy are targeted to have a 35% share of China’s energy pie.In order to achieve the energy consumption goals above while ensuring economic growth,it is of great significance to study the driving factors behind China’s energy consumption growth and industrial development under the change of energy drivers.First,this paper uses the monetary Multi-Regional Input-Output(MRIO)table and provincial industrial energy consumption inventory to compile the hybrid MRIO tables in China of 2007 and 2012 for the first time.Hybrid MRIO model avoids the assumption that energy prices are the same in different sectors when applying the monetary MRIO model and is therefore more realistic.Secondly,based on hybrid MRIO analysis,this paper innovatively establishes a refined structural decomposition model.With the decomposition of energy consumption growth into final demand effect and Leontief inverse matrix effect,the refined structural decomposition model decomposes the latter into trade effect and technology effect.The technology effect is further decomposed into energy intensity effect,energy structure effect and unit output material consumption effect.Finally,this paper combines hybrid MRIO analysis with multi-objective optimization model to explore the industrial structure optimization path of the five regions of China.It expands the research scale of multi-objective optimization model based on input-output analysis from single-region to multi-region.In addition,the optimization process takes into account the changes in the drivers of energy consumption growth and considers the trade offs of China’s economy,energy and environment as well as regional development equity.The key findings of this paper are as follows:From 2007 to 2012,the energy intensity effect in the technology effect is the main factor offsetting the growth of energy consumption.It saved a total of 1.35 billion tons of standard coal equivalent(tce)of energy,of which 1.15 billion tce of coal was saved.The energy structure effect did not bring about a significant increase in natural gas and primary electricity consumption,but instead boosted coal consumption by 210 million tce.The unit output material consumption effect indirectly led to an increase in energy consumption of 390 million tce,of which 290 million tce of coal.In addition,this paper identifies key areas and key sectors that have led to the increase in energy consumption due to the above three effects.The results of industrial structure optimization show that the main driving forces for China’s economic development in the future is service industry,clean-electricity industry,construction industry,transportation industry and equipment manufacturing industry.Under the established energy constraints,it can support an average of 4.8% economic growth rate from 2018 to 2030.Meanwhile,the key difference in regional development is that the growth of economically developed regions mainly depends on the service industry,the cleanelectricity industry and construction,while the less developed regions need to rely on not only the growth of the industuries mentioned above but also manufacturing industries.