| With the large use of fossil energy,the increasing amount of carbon dioxide and other pollutants discharged into the air,the greenhouse effect caused by this has become an environmental problem which is urgently needed to be solved by human beings.Therefore,in order to effectively solve the global energy crisis and combat climate change,China should actively promote the development of renewable energy.China has proposed that non-fossil energy consumption should account for about 15%of energy consumption by 2020.To achieve this goal,we need institutional innovation,and renewable portfolio standards is an effective system to solve this problem.After the implementation of renewable portfolio standards,the electricity generation market will be affected.By studying the behavior decision of the power generation market in the perspective of renewable portfolio standards,it has an important reference function for the design of renewable portfolio standards in China,which is of great value both in theory and in practice.Based on the above understanding,this paper uses the policy network theory,evolutionary game theory and system dynamics to study the behavior decision of the generation market under the renewable portfolio standards.The main work of this paper are as follows:First,in view of the ambiguity of the main body interaction relationship in power market,a power market policy network analysis model based on renewable portfolio standards is constructed.The policy network is composed of policy community,professional network,intergovernmental network,producer network and topic network.From the four stages of problem construction,agenda setting,plan planning and scheme legalization,this paper analyzes the structure of the policy network and the interaction relationship of the main body,and analyzes the process of the renewable portfolio standards.It is known that in the policy changes,the inter subjectivity of the policy network changes with different stages,and systematically presents the network landscape of China’s renewable portfolio standards policy.It helps to provide a theoretical basis for the following analysis of China’s renewable portfolio standards and the evolution game of power generation market participants.Second,in order to study the game relationship of generation market behavior from the perspective of renewable portfolio standards,we build an evolutionary game model of generation market behavior.First of all,from the perspective of renewable portfolio standards,the main body of power generation market is analyzed,and how the renewable portfolio standards affects the power generation market is expounded in detail.Then from the perspective of evolutionary game,the renewable portfolio standards under the electricity market main body discusses the game relation,establish evolutionary game model of thermal power enterprises and green electricity enterprises,thus got the replicated dynamic equation,which said the strategy of power generation market selection process.By using evolutionary game model,based on the bounded rationality,dynamic analysis under the perspective of renewable portfolio standards evolutionary game process of power generation market behavior decision,for power market to choose what kind of strategy provides a comprehensive and dynamic method and auxiliary decision support.Third,in order to analyze the decision-making of generation market in a more intuitive way,a new evolutionary game model based on system dynamics is constructed.First,the feasibility of system dynamics is analyzed.After the analysis of the relationship between thermal power enterprises and green electricity enterprises,and the causal feedback relationship between them and many variables and parameters,such as generation cost,transaction cost,green price and fine price.Based on the theory of evolutionary game theory and system dynamics,the factors affecting the stable state of the power generation market are analyzed deeply.Through this chapter,the relationship between the system elements of the main evolution game of the power generation market under renewable portfolio standards is clarified,and the key factors that affect the equilibrium state of the game are found out,and the influence path of the renewable portfolio standards on the behavior decision of the power generation market is clarified.Fourth,in order to clarify the positive and negative feedback relations of the variables in the generation market behavior decision subsystem under the renewable portfolio standards,the time cumulative effect of the renewable portfolio standards is reflected.Based on the system dynamics model,the scenario analysis of the generation market behavior decision under the renewable portfolio standards is carried out.The situation of slow development,slow development and rapid development were analyzed by scenario analysis.The influence of the Chinese generation market behavior decision under the renewable portfolio standards in the two years of January 2018 was analyzed under the slow development situation,the slow development situation and the rapid development situation.In scenario analysis,the experiment and optimization of renewable portfolio standards can be realized by changing the parameters of system dynamics model. |
