Research On Shared Mental Model Of Power Generation Companies Under Renewable Portfolio Standards

At present.China's low-carbon energy transformation has entered a critical period.Promoting the revolution of energy production and consumption has become a medium and long term strategy for China's economic and social development.Power generation,grid access and market absorption are the three major obstacles to the development of renewable energy power generation industry.However,the elimination of these three obstacles cannot be achieved solely by relying on cost advantages and technological progress,and major institutional innovation must be earried out.The scientific quota trading system is an effective way to solve the deep-seated contradictions faced by industrial development and give full play to the role of market mechanism resources allocation.This paper abandons the assumption of the participants iin the traditional game theory that the participants(and their analysts)have a complete understanding of the objective structure of the game process.On the contrary,we assume that game participants only have their own incomplete knowledge of game structure-we call it a subjective game model.When the participants'action decisions based on the subjective game model are consistent(i.e.equilibrium)at different times,their subjective game model will be confirmed by the observable facts that their actions decide together,and will be produced continuously as a guide for future action decision-making.Therefore,we define the system as the obvious and common factor in the participants'subjective game model,that is,the common belief about the actual operation of the game.This paper regards the system as the game rules and holds that only when the system becomes the common belief(shared mind)of the game participants,the system could be implemented.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the shared mental model of power generation companies under the renewable energy quota system for the solution of whether the quota system can be successfully implemented in China.Based on the subjective game equilibrium,the shared mental lodel of power generation companies is obtained.According to the actual data of China in 2017.Simulink is used for simulation,and the results show that:(1)the cognition of power generation companies not only depends on the incentive factor R,but also depends on the early game situation(that is,the strategy of their own and the strategy of their opponents)and the learning ability of power generation companies themselves.And the formation speed of knowledge affects the strategy choice of power generation companies.(2)power generation companies adopt the method of subjective game theory to study and evolve,and the process of personal opinion formation and institutional endogenous evolution of power generation companies can be observed.The cognitive situation of power generation companies is affected by the environment,the subjective game equilibrium may be inconsistent with the objective game equilibrium,and the game scenario between power generation companies may be locked in a specific region.(3)the simulation method is similar to the empirical results to some extent,and is not limited by time,space,experimental scale and other factors.However,this method still needs to be improved by means of empirical or mathematical analysis.Finally,the endogenous evolution of quota system from the perspective of subjective game is qualitatively analyzed.