Performance Analysis Of Chinese Thermal

Chinese resource endowment of "rich coal,lack of oil and less gas”has led to thermal power occupying the core position of power supply structure for a long time.In February 2002,the first round of electric power reform marked by "No.5" document,whose main task is "separation of power plants and power grids,bidding for access to power grid",has greatly stimulated the vitality of the development of the power generation industry,and the power generation industry has achieved Leap-forward development.By the end of 2015,the installed capacity of the whole country has reached 1.53bn kW(of which,0.99 bn kW of thermal power,accounting for 65.56%),ranking first in the world.Since 2015,facing the adverse growth of thermal power installation and the deterioration of the situation of new energy grid-connected absorption,the state has issued many regulatory policies,such as strictly controlling the scale of coal-fired power construction,promoting new energy grid-connected,and lowering the on-grid price of coal-fired units,etc.The impact of policy factors on the development of the thermal power industry is more and more obvious.The impact can be divided into the following aspects:(1)The capacity development is limited.In April 2016,the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Energy Administration jointly issued the Notice on Promoting the orderly development of coal and electricity in China,strictly controlling the scale of coal-fired Power generation construction,preventing the further aggravation of excess capacity of thermal power;(2)The proportion of installed power generation structure declines,vigorously developing new energy construction and project interconnection,and further squeezing.It occupies the space of thermal power development and has obvious extrusion effect;(3)The cost of environmental protection is rising,and ultra-low emission replaces desulfurization and denitrification as a new trend of thermal power environmental protection;(4)The liberalization of power generation plan and the reduction of on-grid price have a negative impact on the operation of thermal power enterprises,which to some extent reduces the enthusiasm of thermal power enterprises to invest.Especially in March 2015,the second round of electricity reform marked by "No.9" document has made positive progress.The spot electricity market has opened pilot projects,and trading electricity in the market has exceeded expectations,and the power generation plan has been largely liberalized.It is expected that the market electric quantity will account for 80%in 2020.Facing the severe industry situation,thermal power industry,as the main participant in electricity trading,has an urgent need for "industry reanalysis,performance reappraisal" in the process of production and operation.Therefore,based on the development trend of the thermal power industry facing“blocked aheda and chased behind" this paper carries out performance analysis and explores the mechanism of internal and external factors affecting performance,and explores effective ways to improve the performance of the thermal power industry.The corresponding research contents are as follows:First,on the basis of defining the thermal power industry as the research subject,this paper further subdivides it into three research dimensions.For a long time,the academia has been lack of systematic research on thermal power,a relatively micro-industry,and a large number of documents are mainly aimed at the electric power industry.According to the organizational unit of thermal power industry participating in business activities,this paper divides thermal power industry into three research dimensions:generator level,power generation company level and inter-provincial level In the analysis process,the generalization-decomposition-summary logical structure is adopted to make the performance analysis of thermal power industry in China more complete.Second,the performance analysis index system of Chinese thermal power industry is constructed.The establishment of performance analysis index system is the basis of performance analysis.Traditionally,the construction of the index system is mainly aimed at the whole power industry,and the index system is relatively general,which can be used for empirical analysis and reflect the actual operation of the thermal power industry less.In view of the important position of thermal power in the whole power generation industry,this paper constructs three-dimensional performance analysis index system based on the three-component analysis of thermal power industry,starting with the analysis of factors affecting performance and drawing on the research results of literature.Third,the perform(?)nce of thermal power units is analyzed based on matter-element extension model and integrated optimization weighting method.Traditionally,the evaluation of generating units mainly depends on their production efficiency,but because the comprehensive cost of each unit is different,power generation enterprises now pay more attention to the economic efficiency of generating units,and the ideal matter-element extension evaluation model can better achieve multi-index evaluation.In the process of performance analysis,there are two ways to deal with index weights;subjective weighting and objective weighting.Combining the advantages of these two methods,an integrated optimization weighting method based on minimizing the deviation degree of subjective and objective weights is introduced.On the basis of model selection and optimization index empowerment,the unit performance analysis of thermal power industry is carried out by using 60 thermal power units operating index data of a regional company of Huaneng Group.In the current situation of power supply exceeding demand,it is helpful to rationally dispatch the generation order of different units,optimize the load dispatch of units managed by regional companies,and provide a reference paradigm for unit benefit dispatching and participating in spot power trading.Fourth,the performance of thermal power companies is analyzed from multiple perspectives.From the perspective of data availability,the listed thermal power companies(28,the end of 2017 Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market power sector)are selected as the research object.Based on the comprehensiveness of the study,this paper examines the performance of power generation companies from three different perspectives:absolute performance,relative performance and total factor productivity.Firstly,we select the annual financial statements data of 10 companies from 2016 to 2017,and use EVA method to examine their absolute performance.Secondly,annual financial statements data of 28 companies in 2017 are selected and their relative performance is investigated by using the method of entropy weight-TOPSIS.Finally,annual financial statements data of 28 companies from 2007 to 2017 are selected,and Malmquist total factor productivity index and decomposition method are used to examine the growth and driving factors of total factor productivity.Fifth,based on the spatial effect,the inter-provincial performance of thermal power industry is analyzed.This paper studies the inter-provincial performance of the thermal power industry,analyses the regional disparities in different regions,analyses the comparative advantages among regions,and continuously promotes the implementation of electricity reform from the government and economic perspectives,so as to optimize the allocation efficiency of resources in a wider range.There are spatial effects in the development of thermal power industry between provinces.The traditional stochastic frontier analysis model is difficult to deal with spatial effects technically.The spatial panel stochastic frontier model can effectively solve the impact of spatial effects on performance between provinces.Based on panel data of 30 provincial thermal power industries in China from 2004 to 2016,the performance and its influencing factors at the provincial level are studied.Faced with the fact that the technical efficiency of thermal power industry is in a period of decline at this stage,it is suggested that conditional power generation enterprises should actively carry out unit flexibility or high back pressure technical transformation,actively participate in power generation rights trading outside the province,and expand their survival space.Sixth,the comprehensive performance analysis of thermal power industry is carried out under environmental constraints.The development of thermal power industry is constrained by environment.If we measure the level of thermal power management according to the constraints of different environmental factors and random factors in each province,the results can not really reflect the inter-provincial differences in management capacity.General DEA model and stochastic frontier model SFA can not strip away environmental factors and random factors technically.Even if three-stage DEA model is adopted,only the technical efficiency after eliminating environmental factors can be obtained,and the deviation caused by the impact of stochastic factors on efficiency can not be eliminated.This paper introduces Bootstrap-DEA method and three-stage DEA joint evaluation,eliminating environmental factors and random factors,adjusting the provinces in the same environmental factors and luck,can more scientifically evaluate and analyze the level of thermal power management in each province.Seventh,summarize the main conclusions of the paper,and put forward policy recommendations to improve the performance of thermal power industry.On the basis of quantitative analysis and from the reality of thermal power industry,the factors affecting performance are identified from three dimensions:power generation unit,company level and inter-provincial level.Based on the actual evidence,logical inference and empirical conclusions,the policies to improve the performance of thermal power industry are put forward,and the future research contents are prospected.In the process of writing,the paper attaches importance to the practicability of topic selection,considers the comprehensiveness,logic and relevance of the discussion in the overall layout,and considers the characteristics and characteristics of different research objects in the selection of the model,so the research conclusion has objectivity.There are still some problems to be further studied in this paper.For example,in the performance analysis of generating units,the conclusion only provides the direction of load distribution,and does not give a more detailed distribution plan.