Spatiotemporal Patterns And Predicting The Risk Distribution Of Poultry Infectious Diseases And The Reaserch Of Monitoring And Early Warning System Based On The WebGIS

According to relevant data,the epidemic of poultry infectious diseases causes billions of economic losses every year.It not only seriously threatened the healthy development of the poultry industry of our country,but also had a serious impact on the economic development and human life.In recent years,our government paid more and more attention to the setting-up of the early warning system of animal's blight,this was an important link in the preventing and controlling system of animal's blight.The purpose of this study is to build poultry infectious disease monitoring and early warning system based on the basis of geographical network technology(WebGIS).Though this system,we can implement visualization display,spatial analysis,emergency management,risk prediction of poultry infectious diseases data and form various statistical charts.Though the system,we also can predict the risk of disease occurrence before the outbreak or find disease as early as possible and give advise to animal health management departments.This paper use 1: 4 million national electronic vector maps and emote sensing satellite surveying and mapping data to establish spatial database.Attribute database included information about poultry infectious diseases between 2006.01~2015.12 from China National veterinary and provincial meteorological data from China State Meteorological Administration.By using WebGIS technology combined ArcGIS Sever software as development tools,the monitoring and early warning system of poultry infectious diseases have been built.The main method content of this paper includes:(1)By using seasonal analysis and time series analysis,we studied the epidemic tendency of poultry infectious diseases.From the results,we found that all the four poultry infectious diseases include Birds cholera,Newcastle disease,Marek's disease and Duck pestilence,which have been included in the “Official Veterinary Bulletin” have been influenced by the seasonal factors and the number of disease cases in the last month.(2)By using spatial autocorrelation analysis,we considered the spatial aggregation of poultry infectious diseases.From the results,we found that spatial clusters of Birds cholera.Newcastle disease,Marek's disease and Duck pestilence are all concentrated in the south of the Yangtze riverregion in Mainland China.(3)By using Zero-inflated negative binomial model,we reviewed the relevant relationship between meteorological factors and disease cases.The dependability between the meteorological factors and case number of poultry infectious diseases has been approached by utilizing the disease data in months and meteorological data in every month of the whole country during2006.01~2015.12,and the basic meteorological factor and case number of poultry infectious diseases have been analyzed by using GIS software,and the special topic maps drawn.Usually,there is a high possibility of poultry infectious disease when the weather conditions with high temperature and air humidity and low wind speed.(4)In order to transplant the modern and advanced DSS to prevention and research field of poultry infectious diseases,and centrally manage the attributing data and space data relating to every epidemic situation,and monitor and predict to the occurrence,development of the poultry infectious diseases,this experiment was on the basis of above-mentioned theoretical research,tentatively structured the frame of the poultry infectious diseases monitoring and early warning system,accomplished to design the frame of system,the function and system menu in detail,provided theoretic support for our animal blight early warning system,also offered neodoxy for preventing poultry infectious diseases of our country.In sum,this research has found the main risk factors influencing the occurring of case number through the analysis of the dependability of meteorological,geographic factors and case number of poultry infectious diseases,and has proposed the climatic and geographic conditions that suited the occurrence of poultry infectious diseases according to this,it tried to find out overall epidemic trend of poultry infectious diseases of our country in the present stage under analytical method,it offered the reliable theory for setting up the early warning system of poultry infectious diseases,and it also had certain research and realistic meanings.On this basis,it designed the early warning system frame of poultry infectious diseases,offered strong support for gradual perfection of early warning system of animal's epidemic situation of our country,our country's plan of eliminating poultry infectious diseases could be realized ahead of time.