Research On Economic Evaluation Of Animal Epidemics Prevention And Control Strategy

Nowadays,the animal epidemics are becoming more and more popular,the range and scale of the epidemics are growing too,which has become a serious threaten to the safety of livestock husbandry,the quality of animal products,the security of public health and the natural ecology.As an important part of social public health system,the prevention and control work of animal epidemics affects the development of animal husbandry and the income of farmer directly,it also has great influence on the health of citizens,the security of public health,and the stability of social.Do a good job of the animal epidemic prevention and control and realize the goal of prevention and control program are important issues of governments.Through taking measures of technology,institutional arrangements,the prevention and control strategies of animal epidemics are made to achieve different goals of disease prevention and control plan and reduce the influence that the animal epidemics bring to human society.Each control strategy is consist of a variety of specific prevention and control measures,namely the animal disease prevention and control strategy is a bunch of macro and general measures,and a series of specific prevention and control measures.Economic evaluation of animal epidemics prevention and control strategy refers to making evaluation of the current strategy and solution strategy according to the actual stages of the animal disease and the established goal of prevention and control,to make a judgment of the feasibility and economical efficiency of the strategies scientifically,and provides a good empirical basis and theoretical guidance for us about wether to continue,adjust or end the current prevention and control strategy,and provide us with theoretical support to realize the prevention and control plan step by step.The theory and realistic meanings of the economic evaluation of animal disease prevention and control strategy are mainly including:1.As the changing situation of the task and the idea of animal epidemic prevention and control,the level of the control and elimination of animal epidemics has become an important symbol of the level of a nation's economy,science,technology,and the veterinarian.No matter for developed countries,developing countries or international organizations such as FAO,OIE,it is an important way to control and exterminate the animal epidemics that we formulate and implement the animal epidemic prevention and control program.In addition,to realize the different targets of prevention and control,we need to adjust and revise the programmatic prevention and control timely due to the diversity of animal epidemic control plans and the constant emerging of new diseases.and the new strategy,which requires scientific theory as the guidance for the implementation of the new strategy.Therefore,we have a certain sense of time urgency in the research on economic evaluation of animal epidemic control strategy;2.Although some certain research results of theory,method and practice of animal epidemic economic evaluation have been made by some developed countries,but the evaluation study of the prevention and control strategy from the perspective of economics is still very less.due to the different conditions between countries,when we try to draw some lessons from foreign animal epidemic assessment theory and method of economics,we also need to do the research of the theory and method under the actual condition of our own country.It is a kind of international practice to make a risk analysis when people make an evaluation of animal health and animal products safety,but the domestic animal epidemic prevention and control of risk analysis and strategy research has certain limitations,the scientificity,authority and operability of economic evaluation theory and method of animal epidemic risk loss need to be improved.We summarized the theory basis of the economic assessment on animal epidemic prevention and control on the guidance of rules at home and abroad,and the prevention and control practice of various countries.We take the assessment on the cost of animal epidemic prevention and control,the assessment on the outbreak loss,and the assessment on risk loss as the three main contents of economic assessment of the animal epidemic prevention and control strategy,and we take dynamic model,cost benefit analysis as the two main methods,construct the economic evaluation content and evaluation method system of animal epidemic prevention and control strategy theoretically,so this study has a certain theoretical significance;3.As the increasing investment of animal epidemic prevention and control in our country,it is of great significance for the sustainable development of animal husbandry to integrate various resources and increasing the service efficiency of the funds.Evaluating the animal epidemic prevention and control strategy in the view of economic may contributes to the rational allocation of resources,which also contributes to the determination of the priorities of prevention and control strategies and the best achievement of the configuration.This paper tries to build a system of economic evaluation theory and evaluation method of animal epidemic prevention and control strategy,and make a empirical assessment of the strategy implementation,which provides a decision-making reference for the formulation of animal husbandry development plan,and it also provides decision-making reference for major animal epidemic prevention and control plan,therefore,it has certain practical and theoretical significance;From the perspective of economics,this paper take the optimize of animal epidemic prevention and control strategy as the research target,take the animal epidemic prevention and control strategy and the strategy to be assessed as the research objects,systematically study was made to evaluate the different economic effect of prevention and control strategy under certain risk probability by collecting the experimental data and statistical data,and making empirical test.The main research contents in this paper are listed as follows:1.Summarized the theory of animal health economics,government management,risk analysis of disease and dynamics of infectious diseases,and carried on an analysis on the related literature at home and abroad,including the present situation and insufficience of the studies on the influence of animal epidemic and prevention and control strategies,made a research of risk and risk of loss evaluation,which provided a theoretical basis for the building of innovative evaluation method and main contents of the evaluation of animal epidemic prevention and control strategy.2.Analysis the practice of animal epidemic prevention and control strategies and summed up the major types of animal epidemic prevention and control plan and strategy at home and abroad;summarized the international prevention and control rules and their develop trend of major animal epidemics;clarified the correlation of prevention and control plans and the strategies;carried on the qualitative analysis of the present situation and the existing problems of the implementation of major animal epidemic prevention and control strategies in our country.3.On the basis of the function that the evaluation of prevention and control strategy has in the steps of establishing the prevention and control strategies,we put forward the extended cost-benefit analysis(EBCR analysis),which use the dynamic model to forecast the risk of prevention and control strategies,and the loss of risk was counted into the traditional cost-benefit analysis,in the end,the EBCR values represent the economical efficiency of the prevention and control strategies,which means we completed the analysis process from the problem of disease control to the assessment on program strategy,and build up the methods and content system of economic evaluation of animal epidemic prevention and control strategy;4.We have carried on the empirical analysis of the two prevent and control strategies of Asian type I foot-and-mouth disease,namely the strategy of compulsory immunization and the strategy of exit compulsory immunization strategy with enhanced monitoring.According to the assessment method of EBCR,we has completed three major evaluation contents,including the basis cost estimation of prevention and control of different strategies,evaluation of loss made by outbreaks in history,and assessment of risk from different strategies.On the basis of natural science knowledge of epidemiology,pathology,immunology,public health,the EBCR analysis method not only evaluated the cost of different prevention and control strategies,but also made a systematic economics evaluation of outbreak loss,combined with a dynamic model method to evaluate different strategies of risk loss.In the EBCR analysis method,the increased loss value of risk is defined as the incremental cost of the strategy,on the contrary,the reduced value loss of risk by the strategy is defined as the increment of revenue.Finally,we evaluated the cost and benefit ratio of the immunization exiting strategy in different years from 2017 to 2022,namely made a conclusion of the immune exit strategy's EBCR value of border and inland areas,on the basis of it,we made a timely policy recommendations on the strategy transformation of current Asian type I foot-and-mouth disease compulsory immunization strategy;5.Through empirical analysis,this paper argues that,if we continue with the current prevention and control measures,namely still carry out the compulsory immunization,over the next five years since 2017,the risk caused by Asia type I foot-and-mouth disease in our country can be neglected.Regardless of the border or inland,from 2017 to 2019,if we took out the immune strategy,the EBCR>1,the immunization exit strategy is feasible,and the sooner we quit the immune measures,the higher the EBCR value is.So we suggest Chinese carry out Asia as type I foot-and-mouth disease compulsory immunization exit strategy as soon as possible,and adopt the integrated strategy of strengthen monitoring combined with culling purification measures.EBCR analysis methods bring risk analysis into the empirical analysis of prevention and control strategy of Asia type I foot-and-mouth disease,which can quantify the risk,and evaluate the economic benefits of the prevention and control strategy,it can not only provide powerful economic theory basis for optimizing the prevention and control measures in practice,and also a necessary complement of economic method to evaluate a strategy.The originality of this thesis is consists of three aspects as following:1.Improved and expanded the economic evaluation theory and method of animal epidemic risk loss,and puts forward the method which named extended cost-benefit analysis(EBCR analysis).This innovation method bring risk assessment into the cost-benefit analysis of prevention and control strategies,which makes the decision-making conclusion more scientific.The EBCR analysis method trying to build up a set of relatively perfect animal epidemic economic evaluation theory and method system from the angle of economics,and based on the cost estimation of animal epidemic prevention and control measures,the loss evaluation of outbreaks and the risk assessment,especially the assessment of the risks of animal epidemic outbreaks.2.Through the interdisciplinary research,this study enriched the research contents of animal epidemics to a certain extent.In the relevant literature,research on social sciences put emphasis on the discussion of the impact which animal epidemics made to the global or regional macro economy,the spread risk of animal epidemic,as well as the establishment of the prevention and control mechanism,the compensation standard etc,but there is little economic evaluation of animal epidemics prevention and control strategy.Based on the knowledge of natural science,including the disease etiology,the route of transmission and the epidemic characteristics,the pathogen characteristics,we have made an estimation of the risk and the damage on economic and social,and formulated appropriate control strategies,which made this interdisciplinary research an innovative one.3.Through the empirical analysis of the Asian type I foot-and-mouth disease strategies,we provided an economic theory basis for the optimization of the prevention and control strategies,proved that the EBCR analysis method has functions of risk prediction and strategy selection,and we pointed out that the EBCR analysis method could not only provide a valuable reference for the evaluation and selection of the animal epidemic prevention and control strategies,but also provide certain reference for the economic assessment of other risk strategies.