Evaluation Research On Resilience Of Animal Epidemic

In recent years, frequent outbreaks of epidemics, resulting tremendous impact. During which, a large number of poultry culled, farmers suffered huge economic losses, and caused very serious crisis to the local economy as well as avian industry. Some farmers can not restored or restored to the original level for various reasons, which not only endangering its economic benefit but also make a huge impact for social stability maintenance and healthy development of the related industrial chain. After epidemics, with the local government compensating farmers’ culling, there always results unsatisfactory. Compensation defects and farmers’ own factors together bringing greater or lesser affects to resilience. This paper take highly pathogenic avian influenza as an example, researching for various factors which influencing the degree of the resilience about epidemics, and empirically analyzing, in order to constructing resilience assessment system to provide research framework for farmers’ individual studies and comparative analysis, as well as providing the basis for the government to develop a more reasonable compensation standards after the outbreak of the epidemics.Based on the research results in domestic and international, also on the using of Disaster resilience research methods, this paper build epidemic recovery assessment system from factors which influence resilience. Taking Shaanxi, Ningxia for granted, where chicken aviculture flourished, this paper is written in an attempt on highly pathogenic avian influenza,using analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and empirical analysis to measure and calculate resilience and so as to reaching a general reference to build an evaluation system, in order to provide the reference for avian influenza or other animal epidemics.From the writing order, this paper can be viewing as the following six parts: The first chapter mainly explains from domestic and international disaster resilience, avian influenza disaster losses economic assessment study and research status of the compensation policy. The three aspects above induced current research and commentary. The second part combines threeaspects of research and defines conceptions as animal epidemics, avian influenza, resilience,vulnerability and adaptability. in addition, differentiating and analyzing epidemic resilience,thus, defining the conception of outbreaks of avian influenza resilience.The third part mainly introduces the status of avian influenza epidemics and policy implementation. The forth part introduces the analytic hierarchy process model and optimizing, selecting, defining, weights giving, readjusting all the dimensions and index, which constituting the avian influenza resilience. The fifth part mainly focus on empirical analysis about Shaanxi and Ningxia’s avian influenza situation. The last part concentrates on optimizing and improving current policy.In this paper, the main point of the resilience study is to compare different value between different individuals, regions and index, thus to see different units’ resilience inadequate and advantages. The main conclusions are as follows:First, the Government plays a very important role in resuming production for farmers,but the empirical research found that the government,whose work does not reach the designated position, especially in rebuilding confidence, the amount of compensation and popularization of science, which need to be improved.Second, when comparing Ningxia and Shaanxi, farmers in the former province have a higher resilience score, which means there is still much to be improved in the work of the government for the latter province, and also, the former’s own economic conditions are better,while the latter have more advantage in social capital when epidemic outbreaks.Third, among the counties, considering counties in Shaanxi, Yangling gets the highest score and Huxian gets the lowest.Fourth, comparative analysis can be used between farmers. Besides, for different breeding scale farmers, the large-scale farmers may need more concerns from government.Fifthly, the Government need to make efforts before and after the epidemic diseases from the following aspects: to improve farmers’ economic strength, to improve social capital,human capital and to optimizing the mechanism of the epidemic compensation.