| After 10-year of negotiation process and 21 rounds of negotiations,Australia and China signed the FTA(free trade agreement)in June 2015.Australia would adjust all the agriculture tariffs to zero within three years from the agreement come into force,after the transition period,China could increase its agricultural liberalization to 93.5%,and the average agricultural tariffs could decrease from 12.94% to 0.51%.Mutton plays an important role in Sino Australian bilateral trade,along with the cutting of tariffs,it shows growing potential.The establishment of China-Australia FTA could have make important effect on the mutton industry of the northern China,and cause damage to the herdsmen who live depend on sheep.Under this context,the competitive of Chinese sheep production become the focus of public attention.Since 1990 s,China has maintained a rapid development in mutton production,the production of Chinese mutton ranked first in the world for many years.Driven by the demands of domestic consumers,since 2012,China’s imports of mutton have grown rapidly.Up to the good natural resources,strict quality and safe control system,Australian lamb products play an important role in global trade.Considering that the cost of mutton production in Australia is far lower than China,along with the decreasing of China’s import tariffs,there could be a rapid increase in the amount of Australian mutton productions in the future,which will impact on the mutton industry in China.In such a situation,it could be important to discuss the solutions of northern herdsmen and how to improve their competitive.This paper start from the supply and demand of Chinese mutton,base on the analysis of Chinese mutton developing trend in recent years,from the two aspects: the international and domestic competitiveness to evaluate the performance and market characteristics of Chinese mutton trade market.Based on the theory of the international competitiveness of modern agricultural products,this paper makes a comparative analysis of the factors which affecting the competitiveness of mutton trade between China and Australia/New Zealand these two largest export countries.Based on the analysis of the characteristics of bilateral trade between China and Australia and the impact of the Sino Australian FTA agreement,the paper analyzes the potential of China and Australia mutton trade in the future.Taking Inner Mongolia as the researching object,on the basis of the theory of consumers’ behavior,this paper analyse several factors in the competition of Chinese mutton market.The primary conclusions as follows:1.China’s mutton industry shows a rapid growth in importing,but exporting is gradually shrinking,the mainly importing countries are Australia and New Zealand,the mainly importing products is frozen mutton with bones.Mutton international market share(IMS)and revealed comparative advantage index(RCA)analysis showed that New Zealand and Australia have strong competitive power in mutton trades,as international competitiveness of Chinese mutton is declining.Chinese imports of mutton trade dependence increased from 0.67% in 2000 to 5.06% in 2015,and the dependence of export trade declined from 0.16% in 2000 to about 0.09% in 2015.Application unit calculated value judgment method of mutton products trade value and unit value matrix showed that the Chinese mutton trade market in general belong to the dominant market price;frozen mutton bones and frozen boneless sheep trade are in the price leading market,do not have the price competitiveness;The goat meat trade is in the non price dominant market,has the non price competitive power.2.The natural conditions of mutton production from the northern area of China is obviously inferior compared with that of New Zealand and Australia,and the cost is not restricted by the cost of resources.There is an urgent need from Chinese consumers for the quality and safety of mutton production,the quality of imported mutton with safe and reliable products can better meet the needs of consumers’ food safety.China has no competitive advantage in the field of agricultural product quality and safety regulations and product standards,The high technical barriers to foreign markets cause the difficulty of mutton export in China,Mutton products lack of competitive advantage of international brands,but in the domestic market with differentiated product strategy has a certain degree of competitiveness,and imported mutton come in Chinese mutton market only for a short time,marketing tools and market segmentation is relatively inadequate.3.Australia has the power and foundation of wool sheep to meat sheep,and the competitive advantage is obvious in the price and market price of mutton,with the reduction of import tariffs,the cost of imports of Australian lamb with tax costs will further show the comparative advantage.According to the mutton production capacity of Australia and New Zealand and its trade data with China estimates that the future of China’s imports from Australia and New Zealand mutton may be between 38-108 million tons.4.9 explanatory variables could have significant effect on the difference of mutton products purchase behavior: The consumer’s level of education,family income per capita,resident population,the quality and safety of the degree of concern,product certification marks,certification of products and brand awareness of the importance of evaluation,the importance of price evaluation,the importance of evaluation,location of purchase.It shows the possibility of the existence of China subdivision and mutton market,with the difference of product characteristics of mutton producers through the implementation of brand strategy,to avoid price competition with imported mutton,get the advantage in the field of non price competition. |
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