| By the end of 2017,China’s marine aquaculture production reached 200.7 million tons,accounting for 31.04%of the total aquaculture production,an increase of 4.26%over the same period of last year,exceeding the catch of seawater production.The proportion of marine aquaculture has further increased.Marine aquaculture plays a pivotal role on the development of promoting agricultural economy.and maintenance coastal economic stability.However,the annual marine disaster bulletin issued by the State Oceanic Administration shows that the direct economic losses caused by various marine disasters in China in 2017 amounted to 6.398 billion yuan,which is still lacking for the natural disasters caused by marine aquaculture insurance,market returns and other sudden disasters.Guarantee.Therefore,promoting the long-term sustainable operation of modern marine aquaculture insurance is not only the focus of the insurance company’s product designers,but also the common trend of the interests of all sectors of society.Therefore,in-depth analysis of the risks of marine aquaculture in China,grade assessment and zoning for the loss degree and breeding risk of different marine aquaculture products in different marine aquaculture areas,and using actuarial techniques to determine the pure insurance rates for marine aquaculture insurance,Strive to achieve the innovation of China’s marine aquaculture rate system,further develop its industry and provide valuable decision-making reference for researchers.Based on the principle of actuarial valuation and the theory of economics as the research mechanism,this paper conducts a comprehensive quantitative analysis and model study on China’s marine aquaculture industry,hoping to contribute to the development of China’s marine aquaculture insurance industry and the improvement of the national economy.The article takes the marine insurance regional production insurance risk regionalization and rate division as the core of the study.It is divided into seven chapters,which mainly include introduction,theoretical basis,development status and problems,risk analysis,assessment and zoning,and rate determination.And the six main parts of the rate division and conclusion recommendations.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:The first part is the introduction.Taking marine aquaculture insurance as the main research line,this paper points out the research purpose and research significance of this paper,and combs the current research status of marine aquaculture insurance at home and abroad,and takes the risk regionalization,model,subsidy policy,supply and demand of marine aquaculture insurance.The core dimensions are detailed and summarized.Secondly,the research contents and methods of this paper are summarized in detail,and a logical technical framework diagram of research ideas is formed.Finally,it explains the innovation points and deficiencies of the full text,and clarifies the practical reference of this paper.The second part is the the relevant concepts of marine aquaculture insurance,status quo and problems of marine aquaculture insurance development.Through the brief introduction of the marine aquaculture industry,the development process of China’s marine aquaculture insurance market was introduced,and the main problems existed in the paper were objectively explained.The third part is the theoretical basis.Including:the theoretical basis of marine aquaculture risk regionalization,the analysis of necessary of marine aquaculture risk regionalization,the theoretical basis for the determination of insurance premium rate and the analysis of necessary of rate partition.In order to study the risk regionalization and rate division of China’s marine aquaculture insurance,it is necessary to fully grasp the relevant theoretical basis.All these theoretical foundations and technologies related to marine aquaculture insurance have laid a solid foundation for the in-depth analysis and exploration of the full text.The fourth part is the discussion of risk analysis,assessment and zoning of marine aquaculture,namely Chapters 4 and 5.First,a detailed analysis of the risks generated by the marine aquaculture industry.Secondly,the HP filter model was used to fit the marine production trend,and the non-parametric information diffusion model was used to evaluate the risk.The macro-and micro-levels were empirically studied in China’s marine aquaculture risk assessment.The category yield reduction and risk loss rate for marine aquaculture products were calculated.Finally,based on the theory of marine aquaculture risk regionalization,following the principle of mariculture risk regionalization,the index system and cluster analysis model were used to conduct empirical research on risk regionalization.From the empirical results,the zoning model of marine aquaculture risk constructed by this study can more accurately reflect the difference in risk level of each marine aquaculture area.The fifth part is one of the core chapters of the article.In Chapter 6,the theory of risk dispersion and the principle of equivalence exchange determined by the insurance rate actuarial calculation are based on the theory.The actuarial model determined by the marine aquaculture insurance rate is the core of the in-depth study,and the normal rate determined from the rate.The distribution model,the actual production history method,and the empirical rate method are used to review the traditional insurance rate determination actuarial model,and introduce and comment on the application of traditional models in agriculture.Finally,on the basis of the traditional insurance rate to determine the actuarial model,a new method of insurance rate determination,DPAR model method,is proposed creatively,and then the empirical rate method and HP filter under HP filtering method are respectively used.The non-parametric kernel density estimation method and DPAR model method under the law calculate the pure rate of marine aquaculture insurance in China.The article chooses the second method as the basis for the subsequent regional production insurance pure rate adjustment and rate division,and gives Adjusted regional production insurance net rate and rate division based on risk regionalization and sea area distribution characteristics.The sixth part corresponds to the seventh chapter of this article,which is a summary of the full text,and the research results of this paper are obtained,and some policy suggestions and research prospects are given.The innovation of this research is to quantify the risk of marine aquaculture,to lay a solid foundation for more scientific regional division and rate determination and zoning.Second,the establishment of a marine aquaculture risk indicator system,based on which risk regionalization is carried out.The third is to introduce the DPAR model method to calculate the pure rate of production insurance in China’s marine aquaculture area;the fourth is to adjust the pure rate of production insurance in China’s marine aquaculture area,and based on this,combined with risk regionalization and sea area distribution characteristics to afford the method and result of the rate partitioning. |
