| Climate change will have an important impact on the ecological,economic and social benefits of different countries around the world and has become a focus of current research.As the main part of terrestrial ecosystems,forest plays an irreplaceable role in regulating global carbon balance and slowing the rise of greenhouse gas concentrations.The"Kyoto Protocol"advocates that countries around the world offset the greenhouse gas emission reduction targets through artificial afforestation,and carrying out artificial afforestation is the main way to promote the development of forest carbon sinks.The original producing area of Larix kaempferi(Lamb)Carr is in the central mountainous area of Honshu Island,Japan.It has been introduced in China for more than 100 years and is one of the most successful tree species introduced and cultivated in China.It has become a main materials and ecological afforestation specie in the medium-temperate zone,warm temperate zone and north subtropical region.Under the increasingly complex global climate change,the geographical distribution and growth of L.kaempferi may has a significant change,which will have a significant impact on the estimation of artificial cultivation and biomass preparation of L.kaempferi plantation,but the research is still very scarce.In this study,we took L.kaempferi plantation as our research object.and obtained the data from destructive sampling of 161 trees in three different regions of L.kaempferi plantation(the subtropical subtropical high mountain area,the warm temperate middle mountain area and the mid-temperate low mountain area)in China.Technical and precise for estimating and predicting the biomass for L.kaempferi plantation conducted a study of a system in this study.We conducted a system study of technical and precise on estimating and predicting the L.kaempferi plantation biomass Combined with the correlation between the actual distribution of L.kaempferi plantation and climate,the climatic factors leading to the geographical distribution of L.kaempferi and its impact on biomass were analyzed,in order to provide a scientific basis for the carbon estimate and formulation of long-term regional ecological layout and plantation management.The main results of this study are listes as follows:(1)There were differences in the biomass allocation ratios of single tree and stand biomass in different climatic regions and developmental stages.The ratio of root to shoot ratio varied from 0.19 to 0.36 in single tree,and the ratio of root to shoot ratio varied from 0.19 to 0.29 in stand.There was a significant linear correlation between the underground biomass and the aboveground biomass.The generalized single-tree biomass equations suitable for different regions and developmental stages were established using seemingly unrelated regression and dummy variable model methods,which provided scientific approaches to simplify the biomass modeling and improved the accuracy of model estimation.Compared with the basic model,the R~2was increased by 0.44%,and the RMSE was reduced by 6.61%,and the MAB was reduced by 6.94%in the optimal single tree biomass model.Based on the seemingly unrelated regression method,a stand biomass compatibility model with forest age and stand density factor were established.Compared with the basic model,the R~2was increased by 4.41%,and the RMSE was reduced by 28.39%,and the MAB was reduced by 29.83%in the optimal stand biomass model.(2)The stand BEF of bark,branches,needles,roots,aboveground and total of L.kaempferi plantation showed an inverted“J”trend which gradually decreased with the increase of the volume and forest age,and showed a“U”trend which with the increase of the density.The reciprocal function BEF method was the optimal model,which estimated different regional scales.The average relative uncertainties were found to be 4.55%,20.47%,and21.05.%by analyzing the uncertainties in single tree,forest BEF,and regional scale.The results indicated that the uncertainty in the regional scale biomass mainly affected by the uncertainty in BEF model,especially the uncertainty of the model parameters in the BEF model,which lead to regional-scale biomass higher uncertainty.(3)The suitable area and the highly suitable area of L.kaempferi was 35.59×10~4km~2and6.99×10~4km~2,compring 3.71%and 0.73%of the studied area.The highly suitable area were mainly contered on“Qinling-Daba Mountain”and“Eastern Liaoning province”.In future 2050and 2070 period,the potential suitable area of L.kaempferi would continue to increase under RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5.However,the highly suitable area of L.kaempferi showed an increasing trend under the RCP4.5,RCP6.0,RCP8.5 scenarios,and showed a decreasing trend under the RCP2.6 scenario.In future 2050 and 2070,the highly suitable area of L.kaempferi showed a narrowing trend and fragmentation in“Qinling-Daba Mountain”,and moved to the northeast in“Eastern Liaoning province”.The hottest quarterly precipitation,the seasonal variation coefficient of precipitation,the isothermal,and the coldest season average temperature were found to be dominant in influencing the distribution of L.kaempferi.(4)Under the background of climate change,climate change woulde block the growth of single-tree biomass in warm temperate,with an average reduction of 0.36%,which woulde promote the growth of single-tree biomass in the northern subtropic and mid-temperate zones,with an average increase of 0.38%and 0.33%.Climate change woulde block the stand biomass growth of warm temperate with an average reduction of 26.75%,which woulde promote the growth of stand biomass in the northern subtropical and mid-temperate zones,with an average increase of 8.68%and 9.56%.Compared with the current climate,future climate change woulde lead to an overall increase in the biomass of L.kaempferi in high-suitability areas.The research results showed that L.kaempferi woulde have great production potential in China,which woulde provide a scientific reference for the cultivation,production and management of L.kaempferi plantation. |
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