The Impact Of Climate Change On The Potential Suitable Distribution Of Major Crops In Zambia

Climate change, as an inevitable global process, will aggravate food shortage of the already vulnerable agriculture systems in Zambia. Rain-fed agriculture supports the livelihood of majority of smallholders in Zambia. To effectively adapt to foreseeable climate change, and to decrease risk of the food crisis, we analyzed the potential suitable distribution of major crops (maize(Zea mays), cassava (Manihot esculenta) and sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) millet (Setaria italica)) in Zambia, under current and future (2080s) climates by using the MCE-GIS Planting Ecological Adaptability model. We established five suitability grades, i.e., "most suitable", "suitable", "medium", "unsuitable" and "most suitable". The simulation results indicate that:(1) Under current climate conditions, mainly potential suitable distribution regions of maize, cassava, sorghum and millet are at an altitude of 200-1500 m, ranging from 800-1000 mm rainfall agricultural area. This area is extending from the western to the eastern of this country.(2) Under future climate conditions, warming makes maize suitability in Eastern province, Western province and most parts of the Southern province to reduce. In contrast, the North province and Northwestern province with high altitudes, the potential suitability of white maize was increased. The potential suitable distribution area of cassava expanded to almost the whole country, in addition to the southern edge of the country. The potential suitable areas of sorghum migrated from southern countries to the high altitude areas in the north part of the country. The main suitable areas of millet distribute from the northwest to the northeast into the banded structure, also showed reduction trend and centralized into high altitude area in northern Zambia.(3)Climate change will change the percentage of potential suitable area for maize from 66.8% to 48.6%, and that of cassava from 65% to 84%. The percentage of sorghum will maintain 55%. And for millet the percentage of suitable area will decrease from 69.7% to 56.1%.