Claiming Strength,Strategic Competition And China’s South China Sea Policy

Since 2010,as the situation in the South China heated up,there have been more and more international accusations that China’s South China Sea policy has gradually became "assertive" due to its rising power.From their point of view,China’s growing power encouraged it to take "opportunistic" escalation policy on the South China Sea issues,while U.S.’s intervention pressed it to take "pragmatic" cooperation policy.However,the problem with this analytical perspective is that:China’s rising began as early as 1990s,but its territorial dispute policies(including its south china sea policy)haven’t become tougher since then.Instead,China solved most of its land border disputes through peaceful negotiations with neighboring countries.In addition,China joined DOC(Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea)and TAC(Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in the Southeast Asia),instead of expanding its military presence in the South China Sea while the Bush administration was occupied in the Middle East.On the contrary,when the Obama administration publicly intervened in the South China Sea issues in the name of "freedom of navigation",not only did China take tougher actions to protect its maritime rights,but also took the initiative to strengthen its actual control over South China Sea islands.Based on the analyses of power and international pressure in territorial dispute research,this paper suggests,changes of claiming strength and strategic competition can better explain why China changed its policies on the South China Sea issues.Firstly,rising claiming strength may encourage a claimant state to take escalation policy because it has requisite resources to occupy disputed land and bear the resulting costs.However,rising claiming strength may also discourage the claimant to initiate a territorial conflict because it feels optimistic about the resolution of the territorial dispute in the future.Therefore,how to judge the opponent’s intention is crucial.On the contrary,under the psychological influence of "security dilemma" and"preventive motivation",declining claiming strength may also encourage the claimant to take escalation policy,so as to achieve its territorial goals before things get worse.Secondly,when faced with international pressure,the claimant state tends to compromise on territorial issues in order to concentrate on more pressing security challenges.However,claimants usually don’t make compromises on disputed territories with military and strategic significance,and territorial concessions should not be at the expense of their security interests.That’s to say,if the disputed territory itself is related to highly strategic competitive issues,the claimant may refuse-to compromise despite great international pressure,and even choose to escalate the dispute in order to demonstrate its determination of safeguarding its rights and to deter its opponents from undermining its sovereignty and security.Specifically on the South China Sea issue:First,when China’s claiming strength has increased relatively and are facing international pressure with high-degree strategic competition,China is more likely to take low and medium intensity escalation policy.Such as:Mischief Reef incident in 1995,Scarborough Shoal incident in 2012 and China’s construction on some Spartly islands since 2013.Second,when China’s claiming strength has decreased relatively and are facing international pressure with high-degree strategic competition,China is more likely to take high intensity escalation policy.Such as in the battle of Paracel Islands in 1974 and the battle of Chigua Reef in 1988.Third,when China’s claiming strength has decreased relatively and are facing international pressure with low-degree strategic competition,China is more likely to take delaying policy.For example,China proposed "shelving disputes and pursing joint development " on Spratly issue in 1980s.Fourth,when China’s claiming strength has increased relatively and are facing international pressure with low-degree strategic competition,China is more likely to take cooperation policy.Such as:demarcating maritime boundaries in the Gulf of Tonkin with Vietnam,joining the DOC,signing Joint Maritime Seismic Work Agreement with the Philippines,downplaying the "981”drilling rig incident with Vietnam,and advancing the COC consultations with ASEAN countries.Situation in the South China Sea has been profoundly influenced by changes of China’s claiming strength and major power strategic competition.These two variables interact with each other,and run through the development of the South China Sea disputes,which created the current multilateralized and complicated situation of the South China Sea issue.The above mentioned constitute the complexity and contradiction of the South China Sea disputes,which can’t be defined simply by realists’ "opportunism" or "expansionism".Although China has taken some assertive actions to safeguard its maritime rights in recent years,it does not indicate a fundamental shift from China’s former South China Sea policy.It still has practical needs to maintain a favorable international environment for domestic economic development,and to prevent maritime disputes from undermining its overall relations with neighboring countries,especially in the context of China’s rising and when the"China threat theory" is prevailing.It’s always the core object of China’s South China Sea policy to balance between safeguarding its maritime rights and maintaining regional stability.To this end,China has taken the approaches of active actions and self-restraint to realize these two contradicting goals.Anyhow,the South China Sea disputes have evolved from regional maritime territorial disputes to become part of major power strategic competition between the U.S.S and China after the development since 2010.The essence of major power strategic competition is the struggle for strength and influence.How successful the U.S.can exploit the South China Sea disputes to contain China,rests not only with its willingness and degree of involvement,but with China’s ability to shape the regional environment.Therefore,it’s necessary to distinguish two aspects of the South China Sea disputes:one is disputes over territory and maritime rights between China and ASEAN countries,the other is strategic competition between U.S.and China.while constructing the necessary maritime deterrence and promoting Sino-U.S.maritime cooperation,China should take full advantages of the de-escalation of the South China Sea disputes after domestic political changes in this region,to shape regional cooperative issues,participate in regional security mechanisms,and step out of the passive situation led by the controversial issues set by the U.S..