The Impact Of Population Aging On Income Inequality In China

In 2018,the proportion of elderly people aged 65 and above accounted for 11.9% of the total population in China.China has stepped into the ranks of the aging society according to the international standard.Unlike the aging population background that developed countries face,the economic characteristics of "being rich before getting old" and the imperfect pension security system force China to face major challenges in dealing with the negative effects of aging.Among them,income inequality is bound to change with the gradual increase in the proportion of the elderly population.Among the existing research results that investigate the causes of income inequality in China,most scholars blame it on the impact of the economic system and income distribution policies,but they ignore the impact of the change in population age structure on income inequality.Due to the heterogeneous composition of the economic population,within different groups,the degree of income inequality is also different.It can be inferred from this that the aging population has caused changes in the income inequality structure in the economic sphere.On the one hand,aging means that the relative population size composition of different age groups changes,which will inevitably change the income difference of different age groups,thus affecting the overall income inequality;on the other hand,it is different from other economic age groups to obtain income The channels for the elderly to obtain income are mainly family pensions and social pensions.At present,China has not established a complete social pension security system.The deepening of the aging population will also affect the income and welfare levels of low-income families,and even intensify Income distribution gap.Therefore,if we ignore the reality of demographic changes in China's economic development process,it is likely to overestimate the income inequality caused by institutional or institutional factors,while also ignoring the policy implications of the impact of population structure changes on income structure.Based on the theory of demographic transition,the life cycle theory and related theory,income distribution along the "discovery question ? inspection characteristics ? combed model verification mechanism ? conclusion" this basic research idea.After sorting out the relevant theories and studies on population aging and income inequality,this paper analyzes the path of population aging affecting income inequality based on age structure factors and behavioral factors.Select the gini coefficient of WIND database,the original data and ageing of the original data structure time-varying co-integration model to examine an ageing population and income inequality is stable,long-term relationship between China's household income survey data and USES the micro data(CHIP)analysis of variance decomposition process of aging on income inequality,in the hope of a research on the ageing of income inequality within the group,and group effect.Finally fully consider the heterogeneity of the family and the threshold model,quantile regression model,and tend to score matching model of the aging of further analysis of the income gap between the conduction path and authentication mechanism of the influence of aging on income inequality,and respectively by constructing econometric model to test the behavior of economic and non-economic behavior elements in the conduction effect.During the study through literature analysis,normative analysis and empirical analysis on the method of combining the panel model,time-varying nonlinear causality test and cointegration test,vector autoregressive model,smooth migration eventually concluded that an aging population and income inequality between time-varying cointegration relationship,and the specific time the breakpoint is,in 1999.The long-term stable correlation mechanism between population aging and income inequality in China changed significantly around 1999,and the co-integration vector was not constant in the sample interval.Aging at both the top and bottom has a significant impact on income inequality.In addition,the effects of aging on income inequality at different stages of economic development are non-linear.Furthermore,the effect of aging on income inequality in both low-income and high-income groups is smaller than that in middle-income groups.Ageing in the use of statistical tools found there is significant correlation between income inequality and,through variance decomposition method to measure the age and birth group,the more the greater the impact on income inequality between the cumulative inequality,accumulated behavioral differences mainly come from age groups,the group of birth is from the family of initial capital heterogeneity.Demographic structure,birth group effect and age effect have important explanatory power for the change of income inequality.Among them,aging is still an important factor to promote income inequality in China.Time-varying differences in educational returns have a certain explanation for the changes in income inequality.After removing the influence of education factors on income,aging still contributes nearly 20% to income inequality.As the micro subject of economic activities,whether from the perspective of the labor market or the capital market,aging exerts an impact on household income through the savings,borrowing and other economic behaviors of micro households.The differences in economic and social behaviors between the elderly and the young also have heterogeneous effects on income inequality and aggravate the degree of income inequality.According to the conclusion of this paper,the corresponding policy recommendations are as follows.First of all,full attention should be paid to the impact of changes in population age structure on income distribution.Secondly,the current historical development stage,social background,economic environment and regional differences should be taken into account when formulating policies.Thirdly,a more balanced development strategy should be designed in education.Finally,we should continue to foster a culture of filial piety,reduce seniority discrimination and build a healthy environment for economic development.