| China’s financial system has developed rapidly and achieved more and more important status in China’s economy since the reform and opening-up.The further development of the financial system relates to not only the future of China’s economy,but also China’s international status.Therefore,how to better promote the healthy development of the financial system has become a hot issue of public concern.As an important research proposition of the financial system,the financial structure has attracted a large number of scholars since it was explicitly proposed by Goldsmith in 1969.The financial structure influences the operation of economic system by influencing some functions of the financial system,such as the fund allocation.China is now in an important period of the financial system reform and financial strategic adjustment.However,there still exists certain irrationalities in the current financial structure,such as the large proportion of indirect financing.These irrationalities are detrimental to the development of the financial system and will hinder the high-efficiency operation of the economy.Therefore,researching the issue of financial structure can serve to the optimization and adjustment of financial structure,and thus promoting the financial system to better serve for the development of China’s economy.The growth rate of GDP in China has been significantly reduced since 2012,and the rapid development era which with about 9%economic growth rate has basically gone far.Nowadays,China prefers to change the economic development mode and transform its growth momentum.It has taken the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure as the core method to transform the mode of economic development.In addition,the relationship between industrial structure and financial structure is a research hotspot in the existing works on financial structure,but the scholars pay most attention to the influence of financial structure on industrial structure whereas only few studies on how industrial structure and its restructuring influence financial structure can be found.Under the background of continued optimization and the adjustment of China’s industrial structure,the financial structure adjustment is also in a critical period.However,the industrial restructuring will influence financial structure by influencing the demand for financial services and the adjustment results of financial structure may be inconsistent with the anticipation if we neglect this influence,which impairing the goal of financial structure adjustment.Therefore,by studying this topic in our paper,we can better understand the direction of future financial structure,which can serve for the strategic financial restructuring.In summary,choosing to research the topic--the influence of industrial structure and its restructuring on financial structure is based on two aspects:First,studying the financial restructuring can serve for the optimization and adjustment of financial structure,and thus promoting the financial system to serve for the development of China’s economy more efficiently.Second,under the background of China’s increasingly reasonable industrial structure,the differentiated financial service requirements caused by the industrial restructuring in Chinese provinces and cities will influence the financial structure.However,existing works pay less attention to the influence of industrial structure and its restructuring on financial structure,which is unfavorable to the financial structure optimization if being neglected.Therefore,it is necessary to research this topic to serve for the strategic adjustment of financial structure.To understand how will industrial structure and its restructuring influence financial structure in the future,this paper presents 3 problems to be researched,which are:whether industrial structure and its restructuring will influence financial structure,what is the influence mechanism and what are the influences.The above researches are supplements of the relevant works on the financial structure,which will also provide references for the formulation of financial policies.In this paper,we first introduce the research topic--the influence of industrial structure and its restructuring on financial structure and then summarize the main shortcomings of existing works by reviewing the relevant papers.After that,we describe and analyze the current situation of China’s financial and industrial structure,which demonstrate the significant difference of financial structures in different provinces and cities in China.Next,we define three dimensions of financial structure in theoretical level as well as analyze and reveal the influence mechanism of industrial structure and its restructuring to financial structure.Considering the rationality and reliability,we select the relevant data of Chinese provinces and cities and conduct empirical analysis by utilizing multiple econometric tools,e.g.spatial panel model,dynamic spatial panel model,panel data model and dynamic panel model while adding other control variables.The conclusions of theoretical analysis can be well demonstrated by these empirical analyses.Finally,we propose some relevant policy recommendations based on the research results.This paper includes 8 chapters and the details of each chapter are as follows:Chapter 1 is the introduction of this paper.Firstly,the research topic--the influence of industrial structure and its restructuring on financial structure is presented based on the research background.Then,we expound the significance of the research and introduce this paper according to the framework,research ideas and methods,as well as the innovation.Chapter 2 presents the review of this paper.We find three main drawbacks of the existing works by reviewing the relevant papers:researches on this topic is scarce,existing works ignored the provincial heterogeneity of financial structure and the influence of spatial factor.This indicates the direction for subsequent research and also becomes the basis of supplementing the existing works and innovation in this paper.Chapter 3 analyses the current situation of financial structure and industrial structure in national and provincial level,respectively.The analysis results show that there exist certain irrationalities in financial structure of China.Moreover,industrial structure and financial structure both have significant provincial heterogeneity.Therefore,this paper adopts the data of provinces and cities in China for the study of financial structure and demonstrate the rationality and reliability of this data.Chapter 4 mainly includes the related concept definition and the theoretical analysis.The concept of financial structure has been fully expanded after a number of studies,which includes many aspects of the financial system.Considering the complexity of financial structure,many scholars selected one or several of the three dimensions for financial structure depiction,which are the financial system scale,the financial system development level and financing structure.Based on existing researches,this paper defines three dimensions of financial structure:the financial system scale,the financial system development level and financing structure.Then we define the concept of industrial structure and use reasonable degree of industrial structure to measure industrial structure.In addition,referring to existing works,we use the reciprocal of Theil Index to measure the reasonable degree of industrial structure in order to conduct more specific research.Then,we study the influence of industrial structure and its restructuring on the financial structure in theoretical level as well as analyze and reveal the influence mechanism:the financial system is essentially to meet the demand of the financial services generated by industrial development,and industrial restructuring means the change of internal industry scales and industry proportion etc.,causing the changing of various demands from the development of industries,which will finally influence the financial structure.For the three financial structure dimensions,the influence mechanism of industrial structure and its restructuring to financial structure can be summarized as:affecting the financial system scale by influencing the scale of capital demands;affecting the financial system development level by influencing the scale of capital demand,financial service demand and risk management demand;affecting the financing structure by influencing the demand of direct financing and reducing the threshold for direct financing.Chapter 5 to Chapter 7 demonstrate the relevant conclusions of theoretical research through the empirical analysis carried out in three financial structure dimensions which are focused in this paper.In this part,we mainly conduct empirical analysis with pooled regression model,panel data model,dynamic panel model,spatial panel model,dynamic spatial panel model and panel threshold model.In order to get more reliable conclusions,we select the relevant data which are in the period of 2003-2005(13 years)of 30 Chinese provinces and cities and introduces 6 other factors that may influence financial structure as control variables to the empirical analysis.These factors include economic development,urbanization level,opening-up level,technical level,price level and financial repression.Chapter 5 analyzes the influence of industrial structure and its restructuring on financial structure based on the dimension of the financial system scale.In this Chapter,we mainly use the financial-sector value added to measure the financial system scale and conduct empirical analysis with spatial panel model.In addition,we introduce spatial sector to analysis and conduct robustness verification for the possible endogenous problems,so as to verify the positive influence of industrial restructuring on the financial system scale.Chapter 6 empirically analyzes the influence of industrial structure and its restructuring on financial structure based on the dimension of the development of financial system level.First,we design the financial system development level index as the proportion of financial-sector value added in GDP and uses spatial econometric tools to conduct empirical analysis.Additionally,we use the related financial industry employment data and design the proportion of finance industry employment number in employment number as an alternative variable.Then we use the alternative variable to conduct robustness analysis with panel fixed effect model and the system GMM to estimate the dynamic panel model.The above analyses achieve a robust conclusion that industrial restructuring has positive influence on development level of the financial system and significant positive influence on the proportion of the financial system in the economy.Chapter 7 analyzes the influence of industrial structure and its restructuring on financial structure based on the dimension of financing structure.Firstly,from the perspective of transaction scale,we chose the ratio between the total transaction value of securities market and the loan balance of financial institutions to measure the relative development of direct and indirect financing.This index well reflects the spatial correlation of financial structure and is included in the empirical analysis which is conducted by using spatial econometric tools.We use the other two indicators to measure the proportion of direct financing in the financing structure for comparison and robust examination.The indicators are the proportion of direct financing scale in the whole social financing scale and the proportion of direct financing employment number in finance industry employment number,respectively.The spatial correlations of the above two indexes are not significant,so this paper mainly uses panel fixed effect model and the system GMM to estimate the dynamic panel model to conduct empirical analysis.In addition,we also use the panel threshold model to analyze the proportion of the direct financing scale in the social capital scale.The analysis shows that there indeed exists a threshold for the influence of reasonable degree of industrial structure on financing structure.When reasonable degree of industrial structure exceeds the threshold,the influence of it on financing structure will be weaken,but the influence is still positive.The empirical analysis results of three different indexes have a consistent and robust conclusion,which is:industrial structure and its restructuring have significant effects on financing structure.Chapter 8 summarizes relevant conclusions of the previous research.First,China’s financial system has developed rapidly,but the financial structure is unbalanced and the provincial heterogeneity is remarkable.Second,theoretical research illustrates that different industrial structure caused by factor endowment difference will determine financial structure to a certain extent.The industrial restructuring will promote to expand the financial system scale and the financial system development level and increase the proportion of direct financing in the financing structure.Third,the empirical analysis results demonstrate the conclusions of the theoretical research and the results have strong robustness.Therefore,the influence of industrial structure and its restructuring should be considered when adjust financial structure.Finally,we propose policy recommendations for the financial restructuring in some aspects,which are:financial structure optimization and adjustment,grasp the opportunity of industrial restructuring,build scientific and efficient financial market mechanism,risk supervision and management,the implementation of effective policy combination.The potential innovation of this paper can be summarized as follows:First,current researches focus more on how financial structure affects the industrial structure whereas few studies on the three issues(whether the industrial structure and its restructuring will influence the financial structure,what is the influence mechanism and what are the influences)can be found.This paper reviewed related works,then analyzes and reveals the influence mechanism and the influence of industrial structure and its restructuring to financial structure in theoretical level.Second,the data used in the empirical analysis is more reasonable.Existing studies conduct research on financial structure based on transnational data or Chinese data,and thus ignoring the provincial heterogeneity in China.Based on the current situation,this paper pointed out that China’s financial structure of provinces and cities have significant heterogeneity.So we choose relevant data of China’s provinces and cities to introduce heterogeneity to this research.At the same time,existing empirical analyses mostly ignore the influence of other factors that may affect the financial structure while this paper introduces these factors as the control variables to analysis based on existing studies.In addition,this paper also uses financial employment data to measure the financial structure for robustness analysis so as to enhance the robustness of the conclusion.Third,this paper introduces the spatial factors to this topic and uses spatial econometric tools for the subsequent empirical analysis.Existing researches indicate that spatial factors should also be taken into account in the study of financial structure,and the spillover effect of adjacent areas should not be ignored.But such research is scarce at present.Considering the spatial factors,we use spatial econometric tools to introduce spillover effect between the financial structure of provinces and cities to this study and uses a variety of econometric tools to conduct comparative and robust analyses.Therefore,this work could explore the influence of industrial structure and its restructuring on financial structure more reasonably and prove the conclusion of theoretical analyses by empirical analyses. |
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