Spatial Econometric Analysis On The Effect Of Industrial Structure Adjustment On China's Energy Efficiency

Since the reform and opening up,China's economy has experienced a period of beginning to prosperity,the pace of economic development has slowed down,economic growth has changed from high to medium speed,and China has formally entered the "new normal".At the same time,industrial structure has been significantly optimized,economic contribution is constantly shifting from agriculture,industry to service industry,and is getting closer to the world's advanced industrial structure level.Energy is an important part of industrial structure.The change of industrial structure leads to the change of energy structure and energy efficiency,which are closely related to each other.Based on previous studies,this paper explores the influence of industrial structure on energy efficiency in China by using spatial econometric model.The main contents are as follows:The first part is energy efficiency measurement.First of all,we use super-SBM efficiency model with non-expected output to calculate energy efficiency of 30 provinces(excluding Tibet)in China from 2006 to 2015.Then,we use Bootstrap-DEA model to eliminate single-sample error.Next,we use Malmquist-Luenberger index to decompose energy efficiency.The results show that energy efficiency in the eastern part of China is significantly higher than that in other three regions,and the western region's energy efficiency is the lowest.The average energy efficiency of our country is close to central level.Bootstrap adjustment range shows that after 2013,energy efficiency tends to be stable.ML index of energy efficiency is 1.081,and the growth rate is about 8.1%.The growth rate of energy efficiency mainly depends on the rate of technological progress,its average growth rate is 7.4%,while the change of technical efficiency is only 0.6%.The second part is the measurement of industrial structure.Referring to previous studies,the paper uses the quality of the adjustment to industrial structure and the magnitude of the adjustment to industrial structure to measure changes of industrial structure in various provinces during the period of investigation.Next,the paper uses coupling degree model to judge relationship between industrial structure and energy efficiency.The quality of the adjustment to industrial structure of provinces has increased more than three times in 10 years.The eastern and central regions are relatively high,the west is in the middle,and the lowest is the northeast.The magnitude of the adjustment to industrial structure has obvious periodicity,and the cycle is about 3 years.In the period of change,the eastern and northeastern regions are rising and falling obviously,and changes in the western and central regions are small.The results of coupling model show that the lag of industrial adjustment is mainly distributed in the eastern developed areas and the northeast heavy industry area,and energy efficiency lag is mainly distributed in the central region,while synchronous type is mainly in the western region.In the coordination level,China is basically between moderate coordination and high coordination.Among them,the western and northeast regions are mainly in the moderate coordination stage,the eastern and central regions are in the high coordination stage.In the coupling stage,four regions of our country are in the running-in stage.The third part is the analysis of factors affecting energy efficiency.We use Moran's I index and Moran scatter plot to investigate spatial correlation,and select optimal spatial measurement model through Hausmann test and maximum likelihood value.The results show that spatial Doberman model is the best model,in which: total effect of import dependency is positive,while the magnitude of the adjustment to industrial structure,the share of energy use,foreign investment and energy price have negative total effects.In the decomposition of total effect,the quality of the adjustment to industrial structure,the proportion of electricity to energy and ratio of import dependence have a direct positive effect.While energy price and the magnitude of the adjustment to industrial structure do not have a direct effect,but an indirect negative effect.The proportion of coal to energy and foreign investment have negative direct effects and indirect effects.Government intervention does not have direct effect,none indirect effect.Geographically weighted regression model shows that the quality of the adjustment to industrial structure's coefficient distribution a north-south pattern.The magnitude of the adjustment to industrial structure shows difference between the East and the West.Government intervention is often regarded as an unreasonable measure of resource allocation,and excessive government intervention plays an inhibitory role in energy efficiency.Energy efficiency of most provinces in China is negatively related to energy price,but in some major energy provinces,energy efficiency increases when energy price rises.While coal use decreases and power use increases,energy efficiency increases.Import dependence plays an important role in improving energy efficiency of most provinces in China,the distribution of foreign investment is north-south,foreign investment will lead to decline of energy efficiency in northern provinces,and increase in the south.Finally,according to the results of spatial Doberman model and geographical weighted regression model,four suggestions for improving energy efficiency are put forward: grasping key factors to promote industrial adjustment,developing advanced technology and introducing new energy,liberalizing market economy and maintaining stable energy price,persisting in opening to the outside world and encouraging foreign investment.