Study On The Provincial Economic Effect Of Government Industrial Planning

In the field of economics,the effectiveness of free-market and government intervention is a matter of debate for a hundred years.However,the development of the “four Asian dragons” and the experience of China's reform and opening up have demonstrated the role of government intervention in promoting economic development.Based on the development experience of China and other developed countries,professor Lin Yifu proposed the theoretical framework of the new structural economics,and specifically discussed its "promising" government and industrial policy,and explained the necessity of “promising government” under the premise of "effective market".In C hina,the most important measure of government macroeconomic regulation and control is industrial policy.And the most comprehensive industrial policy is the "Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development".The review of relevant literature on economic effects of the "Five-Year Plan" found that the current literature focuses on the establishment of index evaluation systems for planning completion status and the extraction of individual variables from the planning texts for empirical analysis.There are some deficiencies in using the full planning texts to study the literature on the economic effects of the “Five-year Plan”.Therefore,this paper proposes the hypothesis that the government's industrial planning,which meets the requirements of industrial structure optimization,can,to a certain extent,promote economic growth and development,it is theoretical and practical significance to understand the effect of planning implementation through the analysis of the text of the “Five-year Plan” and the study of actual economic operating data.This article starts with the National Economic and Social Development of 31 provinces and cities during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period.First,it analyzes the textual features of the provincial “Five-Year Plan”.The results show that the industrial policy in China's “Five-Year Plan” met the connotation and requirements of industrial structure optimization,and the direction is the rationalization and heightening of the industrial structure.All the high-frequency words in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” in 31 provinces and cities have high cohesiveness,interrelationship and mutual penetration,which is an organic whole.The characteristics of the establishment of “Five-Year Plan” are: Based on the national "five-year plan",each province adapt its local conditions and local conditions to suit its own development plan.Therefore,it must to be considered of the spatial correlation between the inter-relationship and mutual influence of provincial economic development to inspect the effection of the industrial policies.Present research established a spatially delayed panel model(SAR)and a spatial error panel model(SEM)for individual fixed effects using a geographical spatial weight matrix during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period(2011-2015).The results show that under the weight of geographical space,the government's industrial planning is positively related to the level of economic development.The adjustment of the industrial structure in the “Five-Year Plan” has indeed promoted the development of the regional economy to a certain extent,which is confirmed the research hypothesis.At the same time,the factors of social demand,resource supply and international trade also play a significant role in economic development in the spatial model.Based on the above findings,the paper proposes corresponding suggestions.