Research On Evaluation And Prediction Of Transformation Effect Of Resource-based City

As the resource-based city play an important role in the national economy and society of our country,there are many contradictions in the development of resource-based city,and the employment of nearly 100 million residents and the hundreds of cities in our country,which are key problems in reducing the gap and realizing the overall poverty alleviation.It is the guarantee of the social stability of the resource-based city,the promotion of the existence and development and the important issue of the country's strategic objectives.This paper comprehensively uses literature analysis,empirical analysis,information entropy,structural equation model,parameter estimation,hypothesis testing,integrated learning,economic measurement and time series methods to evaluate the transformation effect,transformation mechanism and the development trend of resource-based city,and take Huainan city of Anhui as an empirical research object,and put some relevant suggestions and strategies for Huainan of Anhui province.The specific research contents are as follows:We comb the related concepts of resource-based cities,resource-based cities transformation,comparative advantage of resource based city,resource curse through literature analysis.Then,the relevant theoretical background of the evaluation system of transformation effect of resource based city,the evaluation methods of transformation effect,the path and mechanism of transformation and the prediction models of transformation and development are given respectively.Based on the theory of information entropy,support vector machine and BP neural network,the integration model of resource is constructed,and the influence degree of different components on the transformation effect of resource-based city is analyzed and compared.According to the different theories of urban development evaluation,the data of the related industry development and resource elements in Huainan of Anhui province are collected,and the original data of the evaluation of the transformation effect of the resource-based city are set up.Based on the integrated evaluation models of resource-based cities' transformation effect,this paper makes an empirical research on the transformation and development of resource-based cities in Huainan,Anhui province.Based on the comprehensive evaluation of transformation and development of resource-based city based on integrated learning,combined with the analysis of the factors affecting the transformation of resource-based city in the literature analysis,the basic theories and methods of hypothesis testing,structural equation and latent variable path analysis are used to form the main path hypothesis of the transformation and development of resource-based city,and the EM-SEM transformation of the evaluation of the transformation effect of resource-based city is constructed.According to the construction of EM-SEM transformation and development drive model,the methods of parameter estimation and hypothesis testing is used to test the transformation and development path and transmission mechanism of resource-based cities,and to compare the relationship between the transformation and development path of resource-based cities and their strengths and weaknesses,determining the paths and mechanisms of the transformation and development of Huainan.According to the transformation and development path of the resource based city based on the analysis of the EM-SEM above,the SEM-ARMA prediction model of the transformation and development of resource-based city is analyzed by using the methods of time series analysis,from the inertial perspective of urban economic development.Through the correlation detection of the transformation path of the resource-based cities,the main functions of the main elements in the urban transformation and development are calculated by using the methods of difference analysis,delay operator and information criterion,and the main effects in the future development of the city are also calculated,and the future effect of the urban transformation and development of Huainan is calculated.According to the evaluation effect,mechanism and prediction effect of urban transformation and development,four dimensions of optimizing the industrial structure level,improving the economic development strength,improving the level of resource utilization and protection and strengthening the protection of the ecological environment,and providing relevant suggestions and strategies for the urban transformation and development of Huainan.Therefore,this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation model of resource-based urban transformation and development based on integrated learning,the model of resource based urban transformation and development based on EM-SEM,and the model of resource based urban transformation based on SEM-ARMA,and takeHuainan as an example to make an empirical analysis.According to the results of the transformation and development of resource-based cities,the mechanism of transformation and development of resource-based cities and the transformation and development of resource-based cities,combined with the basic characteristics of Huainan City,some suggestions on the transformation and development of Huainan city are given.