| "Downs Law"(1962)suggests that an increase in the urban road area is likely to contribute to the alleviation of traffic jams in the short term,but the improvement in normal traffic conditions,in turn,calls for more cars to travel as "induced traffic".A careful analysis of the connotation of the Downs Law needs to focus on two important issues:First,whether the increased urban road area brings about an improvement in the mode of transportation,or whether the proportion of public traffic in the total traffic volume will increase?Second,whether the increase in urban road area will cause an increase in the number of private cars?The former problem is the impact of urban transport infrastructure on the mode of travel and the latter is the impact of urban transport infrastructure on the consumption scale of private cars.In recent years,many large cities in our country’s transport infrastructure continue to expand.Does this expansion bring the improvement of the traffic structure of urban traffic?What about the impact on private car consumption?In fact,after the global financial crisis,the Chinese automobile industry grew rapidly under the stimulation of domestic policies.However,at the same time,our country is also facing a new problem in the future:traffic congestion and environmental pollution brought by the massive increase of automobile consumption have increased.In this context,this article selects the universally recognized international metropolis as a sample of the study,focusing on the impact of infrastructure construction in these cities on the traffic mode of travel and private car consumption,answer the reaction of the public transport trip ratio and private cars consumption to urban traffic infrastructure construction quantity and quality through empirical models,trying to Explore the Roads for Transport Infrastructure Construction in China’s Extra Large(Beijing、Shanghai、Guangzhou)Cities on the Precondition of Consuming Automobiles and Optimizing the Urban Transport Structure.Generally speaking,the formation of this road cannot be separated theoretically from three factors:first,the quality and quantity of urban infrastructure development;second,incentives or punitive institutional arrangements that designed in advance by the government;third,the quality of local residents and environmental awareness.Specifically,the main research significance of this thesis has the following four points:First,we should comprehensively understand the empirical relationship between urban transport infrastructure construction and urban modes of transport and changes in private car consumption,in order to clarify the simple point of view that the two should be understood as alternative.Second,we should understand the domestic and international methods and policies for traffic environmental protection and lay the foundation for learning from foreign experience and practices.Thirdly,we should objectively understand the applicable conditions of domestic and foreign governance methods and their significance for reference provide the basis for the reasonable formulation of countermeasures in urban cities in our country.Fourthly,put forward a coping policy that suits China’s national conditions for decision making by the government and relevant departments.In order to clarify the above problems,the author conducted an empirical study combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,and got four basic ideas mainly as follows:First,the relationship between transport infrastructure investment and traffic travel structure.The study found that public transport infrastructure investment in metropolitan cities represented by Beijing.Shanghai.Guangzhou has a positive and incremental effect on the travel of public transport,with an increase of 1%in transportation infrastructure investment and an increase about 0.82%in public transport travel.Due to the increase of investment in transportation infrastructure construction,the carrying capacity of public transportation has been enhanced.This is due to the increase of supply-induced demand.From a causal point of view,there is a short-term and long-term causal relationship between the investment in transportation infrastructure and the structure of public transport in China’s first-tier cities,and this relationship is mutual.Second is about the impact of transportation infrastructure investment on car ownership.It is estimated that this effect has a significant positive and incremental characteristic,that is,if the transport infrastructure investment increase by 1%,car ownership will grow by about 0.32%.Due to the increase of investment in transportation infrastructure construction,the carrying capacity of transportation infrastructure has been strengthened.This is due to the increase in supply-induced demand.However,unlike the situation in international metropolises,there is a short-term causal relationship between the investment in transport infrastructure construction and the ownership of civilian vehicles in urban cities in China,and this relationship is mutual.Thirdly,the empirical analysis of the traffic travel structure shows that the public transport share ratio of our cities is lower than that of the international metropolis.However,the traffic structure of urban transport in Shanghai and Beijing is developing in a rational direction while the travel structure in Guangzhou is deteriorating.Fourthly,the research on traffic policy shows that the cities in our country have different stages and differences in the transportation infrastructure and traffic demand control.In terms of transportation infrastructure,the developed cities in the east such as Shanghai and Beijing have gradually entered the end of the large-scale infrastructure construction,and began to attach importance to the integration of various transport strategies,while Guangzhou is still in the urgently needed stage of transport infrastructure construction;direct restrictions on the control of demand for automobile consumption are mainly reflected in the market-oriented means of opening up the purchase of cars,limiting the use of automobiles by means of Beijing,and the market means directly controlled by automobile purchase(license plate bidding)represented by Shanghai.Finally,empirical studies based on international metropolises show that public transportation has two levels of substitution for private transport-from the substitution of the proportion of travel to the replacement of the amount of ownership,and the key to realizing these two alternatives is to improve the service quality of public transport and reduce the relative price between public transport and private transport,"attracting" customers to public transport,finally achieve the residents’travel habits change and halting or even declining the car ownership of residents.The revelation of the above results is that at present our country’s cities are in a period of rapid urbanization.Each city is facing an important choice of scale expansion and spatial structure:on the one hand,short-term transport infrastructure construction can improve the carrying capacity of transport infrastructure and ease traffic congestion On the other hand,if the strategic orientation of transport infrastructure construction in this period is not correct and lead the irrational traffic structure to be solidified,it will be very difficult to make future improvements.When the transport infrastructure construction reaches a certain level,there will be no short-term causal relationship between the construction of transport infrastructure and the car ownership. |
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