An Empirical Study On The Development Of Equipment Manufacturing Industry In China Under The Effect Of Externalities

Externalities are closely related to the speed and quality of Equipment Manufacturing Industry(EMI)development in China.In the process of the EMI development,EMI has been always influenced by many factors,including the driving forces of accelerating the reform and the constraint forces of delaying or hindering industry upgrading.Externalities are one of the most important factors,which have both driving and constraint forces.More specifically,on the one hand,the core of externalities lies in the spillover of knowledge and technology,which leads to the transformation and upgrading of the EMI.Meanwhile,externalities play an active role in sharing infrastructure and economies of scale,promoting industrial cooperation and creating a favorable market competition environment,which will inevitably promote the sustained and healthy development of EMI in the long run.On the other hand,under the influence of“External Diseconomy”,EMI has been restricted to a certain extent by externalities.Moreover,the problem of“insufficient driving”for externalities also seriously affected the development of EMI,that is,the driving forces of externalities in promoting the development of EMI have not been fully released.Both the restricting forces and the“insufficient driving”are embodied as the constraint forces of externalities on the development of EMI.In addition,compared to other countries,the development of EMI and its externalities have distinct phased evolution features,due to the Chinese characteristics of economic system,development patterns,industrial structure,and regional difference and so on.And the features also profoundly has affected the gradual reform and development of EMI since the beginning of the new century(21~stt century).Therefore,it has become one of the major issues in the supply-side structural reform to go into depth on the development problems of EMI under the effect of externalitiesIndustrial development is the unification of the enhancement of short-term industrial growth and the improvement of long-term optimization of industrial structure.Meanwhile externalities are usually distinguished as MAR externality,Jacobs externality,and Porter externality.Therefore,by constructing ESG analysis framework,this thesis resets traditional analytical model of externalities on industrial development,incorporating externalities(E),optimization of industrial structure(S)and industrial growth(G)into a unified analytical framework,and systemic researches the role of externalities on industrial growth(EG Model),the role of externalities on optimization of industrial structure(ES Model)and the role of externalities on relationship between industrial growth and optimization of industrial structure(SG Model).Furthermore,it can reveal the direction,path and countermeasures of EMI development under the effect of externalities.Based on the above analysis,the structure of the thesis is as follows:The first part,including Chapter 1“Exordium”and Chapter 2“Literature Review”,is the preparation part of the thesis.On the one hand,this part explains the background,significance and innovation points;on the other hand,this part also summarizes and elaborates theories related to this thesis.The second part is the outline of the thesis,which is only related to Chapter 3“ESG analysis framework and its mechanism”.This part mainly arranges the contents of theoretical and empirical analysis based on ESG.The third part is the core content of the thesis,covering Chapter 4-7.Specifically,Chapter 4 mainly talks out the current situation and the trend of externalities and EMI's development in China by Kernel Density Estimation(KDE).Chapter 5 and Chapter 6mainly discuss the influence of externalities on the growth and structure optimization of EMI by Generalized Method of Moments(GMM).Chapter 7 discusses the relationship between the growth and the structure optimization of EMI under the effect of externalities by Panel Threshold Model(PTM).The fourth part is the summary of the thesis,including Chapter 8“Conclusion and Outlook”.Firstly,this part makes a summary of the theoretical and empirical analysis.Secondly,this part puts forward the corresponding policy Suggestions according to the conclusions.Thirdly,this part also looks forward to the future research directions.The main conclusions drawn by this thesis are as follows:Firstly,in terms of externalities and the current situation and evolution trend of EMI in China,on the one hand,the middle and low degree of industrial specialization is the main body of MAR externality of EMI,and the MAR externality in much of China is weakening continuously;the high degree of industrial diversification is the main body of Jacobs externality,and the areas with high degree of diversification have a higher degree of concentration;the middle and high degree of industrial competition is the main body of Porter externality,and it shows the trend of strengthening.On the other hand,the growth rate of EMI shows a trend of continuing to slow down,which is exactly in line with Economic New Normal in China.At the same time,the rationalization of industrial structure has been continuously improved since the new century for EMI in China.On the contrary,the upgrading of industrial structure has been relatively lower,and its evolution trend,with characteristics of instability,has been more complex.Anyhow,the situation and evolution trend of externalities and EMI reflect clearly the fact that“unbalanced”problem in the development of EMI in China has been gradually easing,but“inadequate”problem has been more prominent.Secondly,the effect of externalities on the growth of EMI has remarkable heterogeneity.To be precise,MAR externality has a non-significant negative effect on the actual growth,but has a significant positive effect on the potential growth when the growth indicator is GDP growth rate of EMI.However,when growth indicator is replaced by Malmquist Index(MI),MAR externality has a non-significant positive effect on potential growth.And both Porter externality and Jacobs externality have a significant positive effect on actual and potential growth.When the growth indicator is replaced by MI,the positive effect on actual and potential growth is still very robust.Thirdly,the positive effect of externalities on the optimization of industrial structure for EMI in China is mainly reflected on the rationalization.That is,MAR externality,Jacobs externality and Porter externality have significant positive effects on the rationalization of industrial structure,but only the positive effect of MAR externality can be continued in the long term.Furthermore,MAR externality and Porter externality have significant constraint on the upgrading of industrial structure,while the Jacobs externality has a significant positive effect.However,in the long run,the positive effect of Jacobs externality on the upgrading will have been weakened then transformed into a significant inhibition,but the positive effect of Porter externality will gradually decrease and will gradually show the positive effect on the upgrading of induetrial structure for EMI.Fourthly,the threshold effect,between the optimization of industrial structure and the industrial growth,is much significant relying on Externalities Growth Index(EGI)for EMI in China.More specifically,when EGI is much lower,the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure will hinder the actual and potential economic growth of EMI.That is,at this stage the unbalanced industrial structure is the main driving force in the development of EMI,but the upgrading of industrial structure impedes the development of EMI;when EGI strides over the threshold values,the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure also have significantly positive effects.That is,at this stage the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure will jointly promote the development process of EMI.