A Research Of TPP's Influence On China's Agricultural Trade

In 2008,the United States took part in TPSEP,which turned TPSEP into TPP and actively promoted the expansion of TPP members.Thereafter the United States shifted its position on TPP,from supporting TPP to opposing TPP.After a brief setback,the other 11 countries reached a consensus on TPP.And they formally signed the agreement in March 8,2018.New rules of TPP conform to requirements of the economic globalization to some extent and may have an impact on China's agricultural trade.China's main export agricultural products--vegetables,livestock products and fruits,which have been exported to Japan,South Korea and southeast Asian countries in great quantities,will face challenges from TPP member countries.Accordingly,analyzing the current situation and the trend of China's agricultural trade openness,seizing opportunities and challenges to the domestic industrial development of TPP accurately,and putting forward effective countermeasures to deal with TPP,is of great significance.This paper carries out research mainly from 6 aspects: Firstly,on the basis of reviewing the negotiation process and analyzing contents in the text,this paper summarizes TPP's main features and special characteristics.Secondly,through the analysis of trade development,this paper focuses on trade barriers between China and TPP members,the level of free trade area construction,and changes in the amount and the structure of the bilateral trade in agricultural products.Thirdly,we choose international market share,trade competitiveness index,revealed comparative advantage index,export similarity index,trade intensity index,trade complementarity index to analyze the competitiveness and the complementarity of agricultural products between China and TPP members.Fourthly,from the perspective of transaction costs,this article discusses the adjustment of TPP's related provisions to traditional and non-traditional costs,and then analyzes the possible influence of TPP on China's agricultural product trade.Fifthly,this paper uses GTAP model to simulate and research TPP's impact on China's agriculture under plans such as the withdrawal of the United States,the rejoining of the United States,China joining TPP after the withdrawal of the United States.Sixthly,through comparative analysis,this paper studies similarities and differences among simulation results of TPP's impact on China's agriculture under different plans.Results of the study show that: Firstly,TPP negotiations have gone through setbacks,and whether TPP can take effect remains to be seen.Secondly,comprehensively considering the trade protection level,the construction condition of free trade area,the importance of agricultural product market and trade relations,TPP's tariff reduction may bring some degree of the transfer effect to China's agricultural products trade.Thirdly,new rules advocated by TPP will have an impact on China's agricultural products trade in theory.The zero tariff of agricultural products trade will reduce the market share of China's agricultural products in the TPP region,but the impact will not be obvious;TPP can reduce transaction costs of the agricultural trade in member countries,so China's agricultural products will face the fierce competition of TPP member countries' agricultural products.Fourthly,there are similarities and differences in the impact of TPP on China's agriculture under different simulation plans.On the one hand,changes in price,import and export of the agricultural sector are inconsistent.There are departmental differences in the impact of TPP on China's agricultural trade balance;On the other hand,the production reduction and the trade transfer effect will appear in the agricultural sector.Changes in output,price and trade balance of the agricultural sector are relevant.Fifthly,whether China joins TPP needs to weigh the pros and cons.This article puts forward 5 policy suggestions: Taking an objective and open attitude towards TPP;promoting a higher level of opening to the outside world;promoting the diversification and the decentralization of agricultural products' export market and import source;to strengthen the rational protection and the early warning mechanism for key agricultural sectors;to promote the agricultural supply-side reform and the industrial upgrading and enhance the international competitiveness of agricultural products.