| At this stage,China is accelerating the implementation of its free trade agreement strategy and building a new level of open economic system in an all-round way to promote the high-quality development of Chinese foreign trade.As is known to all,as an important agricultural product of producing and trading country in the world,China has gradually expanded the degree of openness to agricultural product trade,and a comprehensive agricultural opening-up pattern has taken shape gradually.So far China has signed 17 free trade agreements involving a total of 25 countries or regions in the world.The China-Australia free trade agreement is a free trade agreement with a relatively high degree of trade liberalization.Among them agricultural trade has always been an important trade area between China and Australia,and the signing and implementation of the bilateral free trade agreement will have a crucial impact on Chinese agricultural sector.Therefore,the establishment of the China-Australia FTA will lead to the following questions: First of all,what impact does China-Australia FTA have on China's agricultural economy? Furthermore,with the increasing refinement of global production division of labor,the extension of the agricultural production chain will no longer be confined to a certain country or region,so how will the ChinaAustralia FTA affect the added value of Chinese agricultural trade? Furthermore,due to the differences in climate,environment,resource endowment,population structure and other factors in different provinces of China,the regional imbalance in agricultural production is significant,and the agricultural pattern is highly concentrated.Therefore,China-Australia trade liberalization may not only have a strong impact on China's agricultural economy at the national level,but also affect the agricultural economy in different regions of China.So how does the China-Australia FTA affect China's regional agricultural economy? This article will take China-Australia trade liberalization as the research object,and try to fully and systematically reveal the impact of China-Australia FTA on China's agriculture.Therefore,this article integrates trade theory and literature research in international economics,and combines China's reality with China-Australia FTA as the research object,and explores the impact of China-Australia FTA on Chinese agricultural sector from a national perspective,a trade added value perspective,and a regional perspective.The difference from most previous literatures is that this article not only uses the highly detailed GTAP 10 database and the Chinese Sino-TERM database,but also builds a link between the GTAP model and Koopman et al.(2014)on this basis,to decompose China and Australia in detail The impact of FTA on the added value of agricultural trade;In addition,a linkage between the GTAP model and the regional CGE model(Sino-TERM model)was constructed to further explore the impact of China-Australia FTA on China's regional agricultural economy.Existing literatures provide an important reference role for this article.The marginal contributions of this article have three aspects as follows: First of all,it is the research perspective.Different from previous studies that mainly focus on the impact of trade liberalization on the production side,this article not only examines the impact of China-Australia FTA on the production side of the agricultural economy,but also elaborates the impact of China-Australia FTA on food consumption of residents from the consumer side,explaining China-Australia trade liberalization has improved residents' food consumption structure.In addition,this article also deeply explores the impact of China-Australia FTA on the value-added of agricultural trade from the perspective of value-added agricultural trade,explaining the restructuring effects of China-Australia trade liberalization on the value-added of different agricultural trade from the national and industrial levels,respectively.Furthermore,it is database.In order to be as close as possible to reality,at the national level,this article uses the GTAP 10 database released by Purdue University in July 2019,and uses Walmsley's dynamic recursive method to update the database to 2018.Based on this simulation,China and Australia are evaluated.The economic effects of FTA on China's agricultural sector;at the regional level,this article uses the latest version of the Sino-TERM database and uses the four major structures of inter-provincial production structure,inter-provincial consumption structure,import-export trade structure,and inter-provincial transfer structure In terms of the Sino-TERM benchmark database,a series of data calibrations were performed to ensure the accuracy of the database.Finally,it is the model aspect.The China-Australia FTA analysis framework was expanded.Firstly,a linkage between the GTAP model and Koopman et al.(2014)was constructed to explore the decomposition of the value added of agricultural trade under the China-Australia FTA framework,and dismantled the total trade under the FTA free trade agreement framework.Secondly,the linkage between the standard GTAP model and the SinoTERM model is constructed,which refines the impact of China-Australia FTA on the regional agricultural economic effects in China,and breaks through the restrictions of the standard GTAP model to assess the economic effects at the national level.Thirdly,in the standard Based on the Sino-TERM model,the traditional "Fan decomposition" is further extended to "FFZZ decomposition",that is,the three major effects of the traditional "Fan decomposition" are the domestic market effect,the substitution effect of imported products,and the export market effect."FFZZ decomposition" five dimensions of local market share effect,export foreign market effect,domestic transfer to other regional market effects,import foreign market effect,and domestic transfer to other regional product effects to deconstruct the change of a certain commodity output in a certain region Effect,detailing the effect of inter-provincial interregional transfer in and out effects on sectoral output.In view of this,this article focuses on the following series of studies on the agricultural economic effects of China-Australia Free Trade Agreement:Firstly,this paper uses the agricultural product trade data of China and Australia in the World Bank(WITS)database from 1992 to 2018,and describes the evolution of agricultural product trade structure between China and Australia based on Chen(2006)agricultural product classification.First of all,it describes the evolution of the trade structure of five types of agricultural products: grain,oilseed and vegetable oil,horticultural products,animal products,processed agricultural products,and textile raw materials.The tightness of the agricultural trade between China and Australia has been increasing,but China has been in a long-term deficit position,and the deficit has been gradually expanding.China is the world's major importer and exporter of agricultural products,while Australia is only an important agricultural exporter in the world.With the continuous increase in the demand for high-quality and high-standard agricultural products by Chinese residents,and the growing demand for imported high-quality agricultural products,Chinese imports of agricultural products from Australia will continue to increase rapidly.Furthermore,the evolution of China and Australia's international market share of agricultural products(MSR)and revealed comparative advantage(RCA)were evaluated.In view of the differences in natural endowments between China and Australia,China has always had a comparative advantage in agricultural products such as processed products and horticultural products,while Australian textile agricultural products have a comparative advantage.Finally,it measures the agricultural product trade endowed by different factors in China and Australia.China's agricultural exports to Australia are mainly labor-intensive agricultural products,and the share of exports of labor-intensive agricultural products in total agricultural exports has been decreasing year by year,indicating that China's export pattern,which is dominated by labor-intensive agricultural products,is gradually transitioning to a land-intensive agricultural export pattern.This is closely related to the gradual shrinking of the demographic dividend;China's agricultural products imported from Australia are mainly land-intensive,which is mainly due to the unique advantages of Australian land-intensive agricultural products.The structural evolution of endowment agricultural products with different factors between China and Australia also reveals that with the development of Chinese agriculture and the gradual increase of residents' demand,and the structure of Australian agricultural products exported to China has changed.The increasing complementarity of Chinese and Australian agricultural products will also greatly promote bilateral agricultural trade.Secondly,this paper uses the GTAP model to study the effects of China-Australia FTA on agricultural economy.Specifically,first,based on the simulation results of the GTAP model,this article not only analyzes the impact of China-Australia FTA on China's agricultural economy from the production side,but also explores the impact of China-Australia FTA on the food consumption structure of residents from the consumer side,and expands research perspective of China-Australia FTA.The study found that under the context of the China-Australia trade liberalization policy,Chinese household consumers' imports of coarse grains such as rice,wheat,and cereals increased less than imported sugars,beef and mutton,pork,dairy products,aquatic products,and processed foods.Value agricultural products.Chinese residents' consumption and import of different types of agricultural products contribute greatly to welfare growth.In general,the China-Australia FTA has caused a certain degree of impact on some agricultural sectors in China,but from the perspective of consumption,China-Australia trade liberalization is conducive to the optimization and improvement of residents' food consumption structure,which is mainly manifested by the consumption of imported cattle by Chinese households.Products such as mutton,pork,vegetable oil,dairy products,and processed foods contribute far more to welfare growth than rice,wheat,and grains.Thirdly,this paper constructs an effective linkage between the standard GTAP model and the Koopman et al.(2014)trade value-added decomposition model,and combines the dual advantages of the GTAP model and Koopman et al.(2014)trade value-added decomposition model,which can deeply deconstruct from the level of trade value-added.The impact of China-Australia trade liberalization on the value added of different trades of agricultural products in China is not limited to the overall trade level.This paper finds through analysis: First,the country heterogeneity of ChinaAustralia FTA's added value to agricultural trade.The impact of the China-Australia FTA on the added value of bilateral agricultural trade is deep,especially in the respective advantageous agricultural sectors of China and Australia.For China,growth in wool / silk,food products,beef and mutton,and processed rice has been even more pronounced.For Australia,cereals,fruits and vegetables,oilseeds,other crops,animal products,fisheries,dairy products,processed rice and food products all have a strong positive ripple effect.Most agricultural exports between China and New Zealand have decreased significantly,but it is worth noting that beef and mutton,processed rice,wheat and livestock have all improved.In addition,China's trade with ASEAN in fruits and vegetables,other crops,meat products and food products has also declined.Second,the China-Australia FTA decomposes the overall added value of agricultural trade.The impact of the China-Australia FTA on the value added of different trades is highly heterogeneous.From a Chinese perspective,the China-Australia FTA has the most serious impact on the value-added portion of the final exports of agricultural products in China and the value-added portion of the intermediate exports,which is mainly related to the production of finished products and semi-finished products;As far as the industrial sector is concerned,the domestic added value of fruits and vegetables,beef and mutton,meat products and food products has increased significantly,while the domestic added value of food products has been seriously damaged.Finally,ChinaAustralia FTA reshapes the added value of bilateral agricultural trade.From a Chinese perspective,China-Australia trade liberalization has an important impact on China's cotton,animal products,beef and mutton,dairy products and food products.From Australia's perspective,the liberalization of China-Australia trade has an important impact on Australian agricultural products such as cereals,cotton,animal products and dairy products.Fourthly,this article mainly revises and improves the Sino-TERM database and decomposes and expands the Sino-TERM model.Specifically,on the one hand,this chapter is mainly based on the Sino-TERM initial database to improve and modify the database.Mainly by collecting the National Bureau of Statistics,China Rural Household Survey Yearbook(2013),China City(Town)Living and Price Yearbook(2013)and 2012 customs database The export trade structure and inter-provincial import and export structure are revised and improved in four aspects to ensure that the database is as close to the actual data as possible,and after RAS leveling processing to ensure the balance of the database.On the other hand,this chapter further expands the standard Fan decomposition into the FFZZ decomposition,and further expands the traditional domestic market effect,the substitution effect of imported products,and the export market effect into three parts: the local market demand effect,the export foreign market demand effect,Recalling the five major parts of market effects in other regions,effects of imported foreign products,and effects of importing other regional products,it can further decompose the effects of inter-provincial interregional transfers and transfers on changes in sectoral output.Fifthly,this article constructs a linkage between the standard GTAP model and the Sino-TERM model,with a view to assessing the agricultural economic effects of ChinaAustralia FTA on the regional level,and evaluating the impact of China-Australia FTA on regional agricultural economic effects in China.The quantitative analysis of this paper finds that,on the overall level,in the short term,the impact of China-Australia FTA on different regions of China is significantly different,regardless of changes in real GDP,changes in actual investment,changes in actual consumption,actual exports,and actual imports.The coastal provinces benefited a lot,while the inland regions benefited a little and even suffered negatively.However,in the long run,most of China's provinces have been affected by the positive ripple effect,indicating that trade liberalization between China and Australia will benefit macroeconomic development in the long run.In addition,from the perspective of Fan decomposition,based on the traditional Fan decomposition,it is found that in the short term,except for rice,wheat,corn,soybean and grain,the sales of other major agricultural product sectors have increased,mainly due to the China-Australia FTA In the long run,the sales volume of most agricultural products in China has increased,indicating that the liberalization of China-Australia trade will be beneficial to the increase of sales of agricultural products in different regions of China.In addition,this article further expands the FFZZ decomposition on the basis of the original Fan decomposition,and finds that the impact of China-Australia trade liberalization on different agricultural sectors in different provinces is quite different.Based on the expanded FFZZ decomposition effect,it shows that the decomposition effect of changes in output of different product sectors in different regions is very different.Due to space limitations,this article uses dairy products,beef and mutton,and food products in the main agricultural sector of China and Australia as examples.In the short term,although dairy products,beef and mutton,and food products are generally affected,the output of dairy products in some provinces has also shown an increase;so is beef and mutton and food products.Although national levels have been affected to some extent,some provinces Also suffer from positive spillover effects.In the long run,the sales of dairy products,beef and mutton and food products in most provinces in China have shown a positive promotion effect.Based on the simulation results of the expanded FFZZ decomposition effect,it was found that inter-provincial transfers and inter-provincial transfers have a crucial effect on the sales of agricultural products.In summary,this article focuses on the "economic effects of China-Australia FTA on China's agriculture".First,this article describes the structure of China-Australia agricultural trade from the national level and analyzes the competitiveness of bilateral agricultural markets.Second,this paper draws on the effective link between the GTAP model and Koopman et.al(2014)trade value-added decomposition model,and explores the relationship between China-Australia FTA.The impact of the added value of bilateral agricultural trade;once again,in order to describe in detail the China-Australia FTA's effect on China's regional agricultural economy,the Sino-TERM database was further revised and improved,and an extended application of the Fan decomposition "FFZZ" decomposition was constructed,which can be decomposed from The five dimensions of local market effect,export foreign market effect,export of other regional market effects,import of foreign market effect,and import of other regional product effects deconstruct the changes in the output of a certain commodity in the interprovincial region,in order to accurately assess the China-Australia FTA's impact on China.Impacts of agriculture in different inter-provincial regions;Finally,this paper constructs an effective connection between the standard GTAP model and the SinoTERM regional model to explore the impact of China-Australia FTA on agricultural products at the provincial level in China.Through the quantitative analysis of the above dimensions,this paper can theoretically provide a new perspective and research framework for subsequent scholars' research.In practice,based on quantitative research on policies,it can provide corresponding policy references for agricultural development at the national and regional levels in China. |
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