Computing Research On Investor Trust And Behavioral Decision-making In The Online Lending Organization

Peer-to-peer online lending is a newly emerged lending model.It doesn’t rely on traditional financial institute as banks,but depends on internet platform to realize the practice of lending money by matching lenders with borrowers.With the development of IT technologies such as big data,cloud computing and AI,P2 P lending is facing industry regulation and rectification after a rapid and bursting growth.Till now,nearly 2/3 P2 P platforms are forced into bankruptcy because of their noncompliant service,fraud and liquidity risk.The P2 P platform has drawn wide attention in both theory and practice fields in respect of its developing speed,capital scale and surviving situation.Under current internet environment where information is highly transparent and instantly spread,any negative information concerning the platform or relative industry will magnify and cause social panic,even crisis of confidence among the investors,which will give a fatal blow to the stable development of P2 P industry.How to earn investor trust and avoid the catastrophe due to accumulation of negative information becomes a problem which needs to be settled urgently for the P2 P platform.Under such a background,studying the origin,the evolution and the catastrophe of investor trust is both theoretically and practically important to promote continuous and stable development of P2 P platform and online lending industry.This paper will follow the origin,the evolution and catastrophe of investor trust towards the P2 P platform as the main researching line,studying the factors which influence the initial trust of investors towards P2 P platform,then extend to the outer aspect of the platform,analyzing the impact to investor trust evolution through investor interactive view and the transparency of platform,and then study the evolution mechanism of how the investor trust reaches catastrophe caused by inner and outer factors.This paper adopts mainly theories such as Opinion dynamics,Game theory,Catastrophe theory and Social dynamics,following both static and dynamic research approaches to study the structure and evolution of investor trust towards the online lending platform.Firstly,comparing to the traditional financial model,the online lending is more risky and uncertain.After research,the trust is an effective approach to reduce risk perception and uncertainty between the borrowers and lenders.This paper will take the investor trust towards the P2 P platform as the object of research by analyzing the business model and development status of P2 P platform.Based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model(ELM)in the psychological field,this article will establish the theoretical structure of initial trust held by investors,and then raise the research hypothesis.The actual business data of hundreds of P2 P platform has been collected and analyzed to prove the hypothesis and finally a conclusion is drawn.After research,the financial information of P2 P platform is the key factor to earn initial trust of investors.At the same time,social capital and risk control measures are the subsidiary factors.Secondly,the structure of online lending business and the elaboration of the administration mechanism make the P2 P platform face the pressure of industry clearance and reformation.The accumulation of numerous negative information will cause sudden change concerning investor trust.This catastrophe is featured with nonlinear and discontinuous characters,and the traditional empirical research can not reveal the evolution mechanism of investor trust.However,cusp catastrophe theory could describe individual’s psychology change and behavior change,and it can explain the discontinuous change very well.This paper will establish a catastrophic model of investor trust based on catastrophe theory,and make a simulation experiment,discussing the factors evoking the catastrophe of trust held by different kinds of investors and also its evolution path under different circumstances,thus provides references for P2 P platform to prevent and avoid the catastrophe of investor trust.Thirdly,with the development of big data and internet technology,investors have to face real-time information which is more complex and numerous than before.The transmission of information among the investors and the information released by P2 P platform will impact investor trust towards the platform.Based on Network dynamics and Game theory,this paper constructs a model concerning investor trust and their behavioral-decision making,and realises a simulation analysis.Comparing existing dynamics interactive model,this paper studies how the investor trust towards P2 P platform and the uncertainty of the platform interact to influence the investor’s decision,that is,investors can only make a reasonable analysis about their income and cost when their trust towards P2 P platform could eliminate its uncertainty.After research,the uncertainty of P2 P platform is the key factor which causes the variation of investor trust,and it can also influence investor’s behavioral-decision making.The disappearance of trust boundary can accelerate the information spread.P2 p platform’s spread character could control the spread of negative information effectively,and it could resolve emergency mass event caused by P2 P platform.This is very important for P2 P platform to conduct investor behavior,prevent mass event and keep its own stable development.Finally,combining theoretical research and the practice of management,this paper proposes some management strategy for the P2 P platform to deal with investor trust and behavioral-decision making based on the research results above and the current situation of P2 P platform in China,in order to provide some reference for the stable development of P2 P platform and network lending industry.