A Study On The System Safety Analysis And Dynamic Assessment Of Highly Aggregated Tourist Corwds

In recent years,tourism activities have been normalized and popularized with a sharp increase in the number of tourists.Thus,there were some special phenomena such as"tourists burst","tourists'blowout","crowded explosion in tourists scenic spots"and"crowds of tourists"in many popular tourists scenic spots,tourists attractions and some special tour sites.Under the effect of particular time-space conditions,there appeared the special tourist groups,highly aggregated tourist crowds(HATCs)which refer to the groups with more than 50 tourists and more than 3.0persons/m~2 in some special space.These groups of tourists are the maximum performance of tourists'agglomeration both in numbers and density,which existed tremendous uncertainties and the complexities of changes within tourists groups,was difficult to control and evacuate,then had numerous risks and hidden troubles and was easily to cause accidents.After The Bund Stampede Accident in Shanghai,the safety issue of HATCs has drawn much more attention.Consequently,the comprehensive and systematic exploration of the HATCs safety issues and the enhancement of guaranteeing security of the HATCs have become key and difficult points of tourism security research.Therefore,this study has focused on the safety-related issues of HATCs with comprehensive and systematic analysis.Specifically,the author made effort to study and solve four research questions,that is"What-what are the characteristics and rules of accidents of HATCs?","Why-what factors influence the safety of HATCs and why the accidents occurred","How-how the HATCs change and how the safety status of HATCs change dynamically"and"how-how to solve the safety problems and construct a security management system to ensure safety for HATCs".The research was developed step by step based on the idea of"literature review,phenomena analysis,mechanism analysis,dynamic assessment and strategy analysis".Firstly,the author identified the basic concepts used in this paper,made a comprehensive review of the domestic and foreign literature,proposed the specific research questions and then selected basic research theories used in this paper.Secondly,the author explored the surface features of HATCs accidents phenomena through collecting safety-related cases of HATCs,analyzing the risks types and accidents characteristics,and utilizing optimal scaling technique to analyze the association relationships between the HATCs security accidents and the space-time factors;Thirdly,the author focused on the influencing factors of the HATCs system safety and the occurrence mechanisms of accidents through analyzing the structure and operation mechanisms of HATCs system,exploring the influencing factors of the HATCs system safety by means of grounded theory,and finally refining the accidents occurrence mechanisms and coping paths of the HATCs system safety via the causal loop diagram analysis pattern of the system dynamics.Fourthly,this paper simulated the development tendency and safety status of HATCs through conducting surveys in three sample places,Wuyi Mountain(it is the place that young tourists get together and form HATCs on holidays),Shanghai Disneyland theme park(it is the place that family tourists get together and form HATCs during daytime),Shilin night market in Taipei(it is the place that civilian tourists get together and form HATCs at night);examining the influencing factors of HATCs system safety by using exploratory factor analysis;constructing the dynamic model of HATCs system operation and security assessment;utilizing the Vensim software to stimulate the development and change trend of the HATCs system and also to assess the security degree changes of the HATCs system in different conditions.Fifthly,this paper constructed a security management system for HATCs through drawing lessons from domestic and foreign researches of the HATCs safety management strategies,constructing the security management system and operation mechanisms of the HATCs,simulating the management effects of management strategies under different conditions,and proposing some implementing suggestions for the security management system.The main conclusions were showed as follows:(1)What they are-the surface features of HATCs safety issues phenomena:a comprehensive analysis on the safety phenomenon of HATCs showed that resource attraction is the main stimulation for the formation of HATCs.Mountainous areas are the main places for them to appear.The groups has faced natural disaster risks,social security risks,public health risks,accidents and disasters risks,crowd mass risks and spatial risks of places,and it also has existed high-risk behaviors such as violation,sabotage,competition,conflicts and riots in the groups.Besides,the safety accidents of HATCs have obvious spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and the safety accidents have existed corresponding association relationship with spatial and temporal factors.(2)Why it is-theoretical analysis the occurrence mechanism of the HATCs system accidents:Multi-source pressure subsystem,state mutation subsystem and management response subsystem all together constitute the HATCs system then the system security has influenced by multiple factors such as multi-source pressure,state mutation,management responses and so forth.The different states of the HATCs system is the systematic states generated from interactions and mutual coupling of each influencing factors.The security path of the HATCs system operation is“multi-source pressure?+state variation?+effective management response?-multi-source pressure”;among the multi-source pressure subsystem,the state mutation subsystem and the management responses subsystem,there has not formed efficient coordination and coupling,which is the source of security accidents appearing within the HATCs;the coping path of security accidents of the HATCs system is"multi-source pressure?+state variation?+poor quality management response/management response loss?+accident?+multi-source pressure?+state variation?+quality management response?-multi-source pressure”.(3)What would happen-the dynamic assessment of the HATCs system security:The exploratory factors analysis test has shown that multi-source pressure,state mutation and management response are the main factors of influencing the HATCs system security;the simulation of the HATCs system has shown that the multi-source pressure subsystem has approximately exponential growth meanwhile the state mutation subsystem and the management response subsystem all will increase as the multi-source pressure subsystem growth;in addition,the mutation situations such as sharp increasing of tourists,deterioration of tour environment and so forth will cause obvious increase of the multi-source pressure subsystem,which grow apparently higher than the state mutation subsystem and the management response subsystem;the security degree of the HATCs system have presented the changing trends of"ascend-descend-rebound";sharp increasing of tourists and deterioration of tour environment will decrease the security degree of the HATCs system;besides,under steady state and mutation situation,this study put forward the security early-warning schemes of the HATCs in different time phases and different early-warning levels.(4)How to do-the security management and control strategies analysis of the HATCs:Based on the above conclusions,this study summarized the domestic and foreign experiences;constructed the security management system of the HATCs;put forward security management suggestions of the HATCs from micro-management perspective;respectively proposed the prevention-preparation management subsystem,monitoring and early warning management subsystem,control response management subsystem and recovery management subsystem from perspectives of personnel,facilities and equipment,environment,management responses;and put forward the"3-4-7"operating mechanisms of HATCs security management system.Moreover,in different situations,the effects simulations of management strategies within the security management system have shown that:In the steady state,advanced early warning of passenger flow,intensified early warning of passenger flow,rapid implementation and management response,intensified passenger flow management response,intensified management scheme response and intensified management units response will effectively enhance security degree of the HATCs;Under the mutation state,strengthening overall management response,early intensifying passenger flow warning,rapid implementation and management response,strengthening passenger flow management response,intensified management scheme response and intensified management units response will effectively improve security degree of the HATCs.Based on the effect simulation findings of management strategies,this paper propose the implementation suggestions of the HATCs security management system,which further promote the practicality of security management system.This paper mainly explored some related issues of the HATCs security such as“what they are”,“why it is”,“what would happen”and“How to do”with achieving certain innovations and contributions:On the one hand,this paper achieved certain innovations and breakthroughs on the security study of the HATCs.Based on the system dynamics theories and simulation technique,this paper simulated the HATCs system operations under different conditions,dynamically assessed security states of the HATCs system in different conditions,simulated the management effect of security management strategies in different conditions,all of which are innovative research method application of this paper.In addition,this paper explored the constitutions of HATCs system from dual perspectives of theoretical deduction and cases analysis and also explored and examined the influencing factors of the HATCs system security from the dual perspectives of quality and quantity,all of which are the research perspective innovations of this paper.On the other hand,this paper achieved certain contributions both in theory research and practical application on the HATCs security:Theoretically,this paper abstracted out and refined the influencing factors of the HATCs system security;proposed the achieving paths of safety of HATCs system,the accidents occurrence mechanisms and the accidents coping mechanisms of the HATCs system security;which has promoted the theory research of the HATCs security.Practically,this paper proposed different early warning schemes of the HATCs security,constructed security management system of the HATCs and put forward the implementation suggestions of safety guarantee system,which will intensify management practices of the HATCs security.