Construction Of Major Hazard Dynamic Safety Assessment

At present,China is in the prone period of grave accident. On the one hand, the instruction of industrial technology,,automation, large-scale is beneficial to accelerate the integration and utilization of resources. On the other hand,with the large-scale production, the potential dangers will be added and the serious trend of production safety may also be aggravated.Therefore, the construction of major hazard dynamic safety assessment system,the development of accident prediction,the promotion of urgent alarm level is essential to prevent a serious accident and improve the enterprise's overall safety operation.Based on the research of the Aluminum Corporation of China Limited's dynamic safety assessment of major hazards,after the absolute investigation of the Aluminum Corporation of China Limited's safety production condition such as process, facilities, work environment, laborconditions, personnel diathesis and casualties and the using of the probability and mathematical statistics,the security system theory and the gray system theory, the general pattern of dynamic safety assessment system is put forward,the major hazards of the the Aluminum Corporation of China Limited are identified, the specific pattern of dynamic safety assessment system of major hazard is confirmed which includes the dynamic safety assessment model, dynamic forecasting model and dynamic security warning model through the construction of mathematical modeling.The main research achievements are as follows:1. Compared to the routine safety assessment model,the dynamic safety assessment system model is put forward which is a reference to the basic method of dynamic assessment of the other industries.2. The dynamic safety assessment system was designed which was constituted by basic input module, processing module and output module. The input module includes data dynamic acquisition and quantization, which was divided into automatic monitoring index and artificial check index. The processing module aims to deal with the input data by the mathematical model which consists the dynamic safety assessment model,dynamic forecasting model and dynamic security warning model. The output module's function is to indicate the results of security rating,safety trend forecast and warning level.3. The index systems and mathematical models of dynamic safety assessment, dynamic prediction and dynamic security warning are elaborated in this paper.4. On the basis of hazard analysis, the the Aluminum Corporation of China Limited's dynamic safety assessment system of major hazards is determined. According to the enterprise production characteristics, the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) analysis method is used to weigh index. Fuzzy comprehensive assessment method is used to assess the safety situation. While the detection parameters development trend is applied by the grey forecast method. Finally the ranges of automatic monitoring indicators are limited to distinguish warning interval. Therefore, security situation of major hazard on Aluminum Corporation of China Limited is assessed dynamically from the multi-level.5. The follow-up study direction is put forward.