Research On The Management Of Risk For Raw Milk Quality Security In China

The quality and safety of raw milk has become a key issue affecting the sound,sustained and stable development of dairy industry in China.Through milk quality safety incidents that have occurred over the past few years,it is not difficult to see the great investment in the upstream industry chain,which actually is the foundation of the healthy development of the whole dairy industry.It is not enough only to have sufficient raw milk,and the most important thing is to have the raw milk of quality and safety.If the dairy enterprises do not have sufficient high quality raw milk as the basis,the production will become "water without a source,and a tree without roots".Therefore,the research on the quality and safety of raw milk has certain reference significance to the sustainable and healthy development of dairy industry.In this study,taking the risk of quality and safety of raw milk in China as the specific object of study,the aim is to improve the risk prevention and control ability of raw milk quality in China,and the key research contents include Chinese raw milk classification of risk categories,risk identification,risk assessment and risk prevention and control,etc.In the research part of the quality and safety risk of raw milk in our country,this part mainly uses field research,expert interview and system diagnosis to define the types of raw milk production mode and the risk categories of quality and safety of raw milk.Based on the contractual relationship between the stakeholders in the industrial chain of raw milk production mode,based on the game situation among the stakeholders in different modes and the influence on quality and safety,the environment of risk generation is analyzed.The risk types of raw milk quality and safety in China are defined from the perspective of endogenous and exogenous risks.In the construction part of risk identification and index system of quality and safety of raw milk,a preliminary index system is established by means of partial correlation analysis.The expert scoring method and the multicollinear test are used to identify and screen the risk index system of quality and safety of raw milk in China.Finally the index system to be used is determined,VAR model is adopted to construct the index system,and the identified indexes are tested.In the risk assessment part of quality and safety of raw milk,the method of risk assessment is analyzed,and the principle of risk assessment is clarified.Using the principal component analysis to evaluate the risk of quality and safety of raw milk is evaluated,the risk of forage grass and fodder,the risk of propagation and breeding,the risk of disease prevention and control,the risk of feeding and management and risk of market circulation are evaluated respectively,and the situation of Heilongjiang province is analyzed empirically.In the early warning part of quality safety risk of raw milk,we use curve estimation to forecast the indexes of forage,breeding and breeding risk,disease prevention and control risk,breeding management risk and market circulation risk respectively.Risk assessment was carried out in 2016 with the prediction value,and five types of risk warnings were carried out with the theory of early warning signal.In the quality and safety risk management of raw milk part,in the quality and safety risk management of raw milk part,put forward the main body,the overall goal and the basic principle of the quality and safety risk management of raw milk,put forward thecountermeasures and suggestions from three aspects to strengthen the quality and safety risk management of raw milk,improve the quality and safety supervision system of raw milk,strengthen the construction of the quality and safety risk assessment system,in strengthening the risk warning to the quality and safety of raw milk.The study found that the risk level of quality safety in China and Heilongjiang is between basic safety and safety,the risk of breeding and breeding and forage feed risk is the lowest,and the five risk factors are between "yellow light" and "green light".Through this study,we hope that in the supervision process of the quality and safety of raw milk,we can evaluate and warn the quality and safety of raw milk in time,release early warning information,provide reference for government monitoring,and provide support for stabilizing raw milk supply and improving the quality of raw milk.