Study On Land Expropriation Conflict Risk Management

The propulsion of industrialization and urbanization progress makes the rural land expropriation an irresistible trend, which leads to various inevitable conflicts. Lots of potential risk accidents in land expropriation filed has seriously threatened the rural social stability. However, problems such as inadequate awareness to land expropriation risks, lacking of risk management intention, nonstandard conflict risk assessment system of land expropriation, imperfect conflict risk control measures form an inefficient land expropriation conflict risk management system. All those problems prove to be a brutal potential danger. Under such background, the paper constructed the research framework of land expropriation conflict risk management through relevant theories analysis, distinguished the key risk factors via case study and spot investigation and discussed the relationship between conflict risk factors and conflict consequence risk factors. Meanwhile, comprehensive evaluation was done with fuzzy synthetic evaluation method. After the formulation of risk early warning model, risk control analysis was accomplished. Conclusions of the paper are as follows:(1) Using the existing research results about land expropriation conflict risks for reference and case study, the paper catalogs the conflict risks of land expropriation and distinguishes the key risk factors.18conflict risk factors are included, which separately belong to risk factors of land expropriation supervision, land expropriation procedure, land expropriation mediation, land expropriation distribution and compensation.(2) The risk function mechanism is analyzed, using SEM model, with key risks as object, to proclaim the relationship between land expropriation conflict risk factors and conflict consequences. The analysis reveals that there is an interaction relationship between different conflict risks and conflict consequences:land expropriation supervision-land expropriation procedure-conflict consequences; land expropriation supervision- land expropriation distribution and compensation-conflict consequences; land expropriation mediation-land expropriation supervision-land expropriation procedure-onflict consequences; land expropriation mediation-land expropriation distribution and compensation-conflict consequences; land expropriation mediation-conflict consequences.(3) Rough set theory and methods are used to calculate weights of different indexes, on the basis of which fuzzy compensation evaluation about land expropriation conflict risks is made with fuzzy mathematics theory. Results show that:on the cases that factor risks of land expropriation supervision, land expropriation procedure, land expropriation distribution and compensation, land expropriation mediation are separately moderate risk, moderate risk, high risk, high risk, factor risk of comprehensive land expropriation risk is moderate, factor risk of land expropriation conflict consequence is high. The evaluation results proclaim the characteristics of land expropriation conflict risks.(4) With typical land expropriation conflict case analysis, BP neural net work analysis method is used to formulate the early warning model, which is then trained and tested. Through early warning analysis, risk control purposes are cleared and risk control strategy is explored. Meanwhile, conflict risk control bracing system including legal norm, organizational system and information system is structured.