Research On The Relationship Between Inbound Tourism And Import And Export Trade Of Seven European Countries

Tourism flows and trade flows are the main forms of cross-border inter-district contact.The interaction between tourism and trade is a new interdisciplinary study both in economic geography and tourism geography in recent years.However,the mainstream research concerning tourism flows and trade flows at home and abroad didn't implement an interdisciplinary study by systematically revealing interaction rules and microscopic mechanism between tourism and trade,especially without comprehensive study of multi-integration perspective.By analyzing relevant literature and theory and viewing from the perspective of generalized tourist flow and inter-district association,this dissertation chooses typical European countries that have inbound tourism and bilateral trade with China as a study case to build macro and micro analytical framework by applying the integrated multivariate methods of statistical analysis,measurement methods and structure model.Macroscopically,this dissertation builds push-pull model and cointegration model to identify and verify macro push-pull model and equilibrium causal relationship between tourism and trade.Microscopically,by applying questionnaires and in-depth interviews,this dissertation builds structural equation modeling of tourism and trade interaction from feedback loops of system to analyze interactive mechanism and triggering path of travel inducing trade and trade promoting tourism and examine the nature and the interaction rules hidden behind the tourist flows and trade flows.This dissertation plans to answer some key questions between tourism and trade,including "how the system works?","what is the relationship between tourism and trade?" and "how they interact each other?" The main results show that:(1)Tourist flow greatly promotes export trade but there are differences and phase characteristics during the whole process.Transversely speaking,inbound tourist flow effects import and export trade differently:Inbound tourist flow from German,Sweden and Switzerland effects more greatly in import trade than in export trade;Inbound tourist flow from Britain,Netherlands,France and Italy effects more greatly in export trade than in import trade,but there exist periodic differences.Longitudinally speaking,inbound tourist flow from most of Seven European countries effects total volume of import,export and import and export trade less in earlier stage than in later stage,which accords with the assumption of interaction and evolution of tourism and trade proposed by this dissertation.(2)There exist equilibrium relationship,causality and time lag between inbound tourism and import trade,export trade respectively.There exists long-run equilibrium relationship between inbound tourist flow from Seven European countries and two kinds of trade,and their long-term flexibility is much larger than the short-term flexibility,which accords with the interaction of inbound tourist flow and trade with a significant time lag,and shows that flexibility differs from inertia in different lag period;the size of inbound tourist flow from Seven European countries corresponds with the acceleration function to total import trade,There are some differences with inbound tourist flow's impact on exports:inbound tourist flow from England,German and Sweden promote export trade more greatly than other countries;export trade promoting inbound tourist flow functions well in Italy because of the trade pattern between Italy and China;the impact of total import trade on inbound tourist flow is more significant only in Switzerland,which is believed to be caused by this dissertation that there exists a asymmetric relationship between import and export from Switzerland.The above result demonstrates that surplus and deficit level and trade status of countries etc.affect the relationship of inbound tourist flow and import trade and export trade.(3)There exists causal relationship between different types of inbound tourism and import,so does export,From the volume point of view,the volume of business tourists from seven countries to China matches to the corresponding effect promoted on import and export,namely the larger the inbound business travel volume is,the greater the effect produced on import and export,such as business tourist from France,Germany and Italy,at least show inbound business tourism unidirectional causal with import trade,in the two period of lag,there is a two-way causal relationship with its exports to China.The relationship between inbound tourism of leisure sightseeing,visiting relatives and friends and service staff and other forms with import and export appears more closer in the smaller volume trade countries,such as Holland,a one-way causal relationship between tourism of leisure sightseeing,visiting relatives and import in a period and the two period lag,by contrast,The promotion effect which if generated by different types of Chinese Inbound tourism from seven countries to China on the export is bigger than the import.From the time point of view,the relationship between different types of inbound tourism flow and import and export trade shows significant time lag phenomenon,especially in business travel.(4)The path relationship between business tourism related motivation and Commerce&revisiting willingness of tourists is significant.A direct path and two indirect path can be found:Trade association directly leads to the Commerce and revisit intention,reflected in the business tourists Revisit frequency.Because of the direct business related behaviors or motivation such as " sales of goods "," ordering goods"?,new product display and trial",whether it is specialized in exhibition or exposition,which produces a business travel motivation,not only the initiation of the economic and trade relations,but also repeatedly causes the business travel the relationship between trade association,forms the path with trade and revisit intention.In addition,there is also another two indirect paths,(Relationship linkage-->Knowledge linkage-->commerce and revisit intention)and(information communication-->advertising effect-->commerce and revisit intention),Relationship linkage related motivation such as" Exchange of views "," meeting friends and customer"," looking for business partners " and " access to celebrity or experts",indirectly lead to the dissemination of business information or knowledge,generate business and revisiting willingness;The other path concern with information communication related motivation such as"learning new trend "?" to experience different culture ","explore the unknown ","collect new product information " and " collect the purchase or selling information ",intentionally or unintentionally produces advertising effect on China's main tourist destination or cities,it can stimulate business tourist good perception of China,help them understand China better,put more attention on China,or so inspired to do business in China or interest of trade activities,tell their friends and family the experience of travel in China,which will directly lead their own relatives and friends come to China or generate the willingness of revisiting or trading?(5)Two indirect paths can be found in the non-business visitors model:Relationship linkage-->Knowledge linkage-->commerce and revisit intention)and(information communication-->advertising effect-->commerce and revisit intention),although the non-business traveler is mainly to leisure or sightseeing,visit friends and relatives,exchange culture or holiday travel,but can intentionally or unintentionally produce incidental behavior " learning new trend"?"to experience a different culture ","explore the unknown ","acquire new product information" and "collect the purchase or sale of information ",it will produce the following in China's main tourist destination city advertising effect,can stimulate business tourist good perception of China,help them understand China better,put more attention on China,so excited to do business or trade activities in China,which will directly generate their own or relatives and friends come to China again or trade wishes;another path(information communication-->advertising effect-->commerce and revisit intention),The path coefficient between driving motivation of this trip and the two indicators " maintain the customer" or "find business partners " is very small,only 0.18 and 0.29,but the other "exchange of views "," meeting friends or expert" load coefficient in general,the path coefficient between Relationship linkage and Knowledge linkage reaches 0.66,and the path coefficient of Knowledge linkage and trading and revisit intention reaches 0.46,which show that the induced path coefficient is even greater than business travelers.This dissertation may have the following innovations:(1)This dissertation has the feature of interdisciplinary and are innovative.It combines international tourism and international trade,closely tracks new frontiers of international tourism and international trade,bridges tourism and trade,discusses the interactive relationship of inbound tourism and export trade and reveal the relationship of passenger flow and logistics quantity.(2)This dissertation constructs two analytical frameworks by interactively applying statistical analysis,measurement method and structure model.Macroscopically,it identifies and verifies push-pull model,cointegration model and Granger causality;Microscopically,it builds structural equation,deeply analyses triggering path and interaction mechanism,discusses the interactive relationship of inbound tourism and import and export trade.This dissertation is an empirical research,providing a comprehensive revelation between tourism and trade and whose research paradigm and research methodology are innovative.(3)This dissertation macroscopically verifies and identifies interactive relationship of tourism and trade and microscopically reveals behavior path.It proposes a systematic framework to explain and analyze interactive relationship of tourism and trade which is based on the relationship of generalized tourism flow and trade interaction,and constructs a two-way convection system framework between tourist source countries and destination countries after fusing trade theory and tourism theory.Furthermore,this dissertation consists of two systems,externally revealing macro-relationship of formation and evolution of tourism and trade,internally expounding basic mechanism of tourism and trade,expands the field and content of interactive relationship of tourism and trade and provides an analytical framework for further research on interaction of tourism and trade.