| Since Hong Kong's return in 1997,Hong Kong real estate has entered an unprecedented new situation.On the one hand,the government's change in land supply,and secondly,the Asian financial turmoil;these events have caused a sharp shock in the Hong Kong real estate market.This situation is not only beneficial to the pattern of Hong Kong's economic development.Among them,the rapid rise of building prices,the rapid rise in asset prices,and the imbalance in the operating cycle of the real estate market have not produced effective solutions.Therefore,this article hopes to bring the solution of Hong Kong property market development.With focus to the post-return real estate market cycle,starting from the real estate factor's,and then establishing an effective volatility method "seven real estate index " to avoid the economy is largely dragged down by the real estate market,and can take decisiveness in a timely measures to reduce the impact of real estate cycle volatility in order to bring up an stability property market development.This article mainly explores the Hong Kong real estate market as an example,and divides the changes in the cycle.From the historical data,we can understand that the Hong Kong real estate cycle has a three-stage structure,that is,from the 1980 s to the present(2019),it was discovered that there have been a three-stage structure.It is following the rising cycle trend to make a positive cyclical rise.That is,the trend of big rise with a small rise of change.These discoveries have been breaking the traditional cycle analysis;the traditional cycle analysis is mostly started in the direction of the mountain shape and is based on the development on the horizontal platform shape.With the new Segment analysis;this paper develops a three-stage upward structure,making the N-shaped rising cycle as the basis shape of developing cycle form,and for the first time clearly proposed a three-stage segmentation cycle shape upward division(1),while the traditional cycle division is only distinguished by balance of platform segmentation.The reason for this happening is due to the historical of Western economy development,such as European,Germany,France and other big cities.The price of the property in these cities is in a balanced cycle of development trend for a long period of time,and it is not a development of the rising cycle.Therefore,this paper is studying the real estate cycle in Hong Kong.From the statistical data,the N-shaped,three-stage(nearly 40 years)cycle development is a big difference in the study of property cycle and the morphological structure development.After that,with the real estate supply data from Hong Kong statistical department,we have find out that,the change of supply and demand difference,will cause a changed of shape twisted.So we have concluded that the difference between supply and demand is an important factor in the Hong Kong property cycle changing in trend.The difference between supply and demand is an important attribution of the twisted cycle channel,for example,when the amount of housing construction is large,with the difference changed,the trend of real estate prices tends to change.The obvious difference is that in 1996 and 1997,the overall supply of private buildings in 1996 was significantly lower than the average of five years(less than 30,000 units).In 1997,the supply of buildings was less than that in 1996,and the supply in 1998-99 has risen sharply,more than nearly 80%.This indicates that the change in supply and demand is a sign of distortionary trend;its characteristic is supply will have a sharp drop first,and the price will rise dramatically,and then drops sharply,but the final price of the overall decline will not be lower than the lowest of the previous cycle,that is,the wave pattern is higher than the previous wave.According to the working paper,we have clearly divided the real estate cycle in Hong Kong and the inflection point of supply and demand changes.That lead to the changed of the trend of the cycle.After that,this article will make an empirical analysis of Hong Kong real estate cycle development.In the real estate empirical analysis,this paper compares the real estate market in Hong Kong and Shenzhen,and finds out that the real estate market prices in Hong Kong and Shenzhen are less affected by per capita income,but are more affected by the local GDP.The reliability is as high as 70%.This reflected that the economic development has not been benefited from the public,and the overall effect of economic growth have been more prominent reflect in the real estate market.This indicates that the gap between the rich and the poor is relatively high,and the results of the economic generation gap have not flowed to the public.This article compares the price patterns of Hong Kong and Shenzhen and finds that there is an inverse relationship between them.That is,whenever the(annual)Hong Kong property prices are hot,the increase in Shenzhen real estate will slow down accordingly,and vice versa.This reflected that the land economy and the flow of funds are highly inextricably linked,and the hot money flows frequently between the two places.This paper also develops seven real estate prosperity indexes,from the empirical analysis,referred to as the seven real estate economic indexes in Hong Kong.This index is anchored by various factors,and the seven indexes are compiled in an average weighted form.The project is added to the unemployment rate and rent with the important factors such as housing supply,which led to the allocation of seven real estate indices in Hong Kong.With the observation,we have discovery an unique basic shape,and with the form of this fluctuation,we have founded its relatively significant forerunner morphological signs,which have been appears.Adding the elevation analysis method(45°),the trend of the angle trend is more obvious,you can observe the signs of changes in the price of the property.This reflected the characteristic's of unemployment rate and rental adjustment will be slightly changed earlier than real estate price adjustment,and the real estate price adjustment is slightly earlier than economic adjustment,and vice versa.That is,the decline in real estate is slightly ahead of economic development,and prosperity lags behind the economy.This discovery is consistent with traditional clerical.Traditionally,the real estate boom index generally uses eight indicators for analysis.This paper attempts to reduce one factor,which makes the analysis form better.These developments have significantly helping in understanding the trend.Finally,this paper will try to develop the Hong Kong real estate counter-cyclical warning system,with the assist of the Hong Kong seven real estate index and V-segment(super ?45? ° degrees)method.The use of the project can more clearly understand the fundamentals of the Hong Kong real estate cycle and the changes.Furthermore this paper will develop the real estate cycle channel based on these basic principles,and hope to find out the early warning signal mechanism from this cycle channel which develop an counter-cyclical regulation,in order to stabilize the real estate market.On the establishment of the periodic channel,this paper first sets the annual upper,middle and lower axes,based on the Central Plains City Leading Index,and then we will extends this base axis to establish a periodic channel.With this development we find that the Hong Kong's economic generation and real estate generation are positively related [Hong Kong's economy has not fallen more than ten percentage points in 20 years(for example,Hong Kong's economic growth rate was 9.5% in 2001 and negative growth was-5% at the lowest level)].Through this discovery,it is concluded that the early warning cycle channel is no more than 10% up and downward,thus establishing a real estate early warning cycle in Hong Kong;through this establishment of the early warning channel,countercyclical warning is made;when real estate prices rise sharply in the short term \or down dramatically,this mechanism will alerted(with this market pricing situation will thus breaking trend which leaded to the price indicator break through the early warning channel),and counter-cyclical early warning measures will be introduced to stabilize the real estate market.So that it can develop healthily property market;its main strategy is to actively develop a non-intervention-based,market-oriented.With the cooperation of Hong Kong's seven real estate prosperity index(Referred to as the "Hong Kong Seven Real Estate Index" and the V-division method(super ?45? degree elevation analysis method).With this warning can be used to accurately play the effect.The seven real estate indices and the early warning cycle are independent,but can be cooperate with each other.Although this are two different systems,but the main purposed is to make the warning signal more accurate and play a more effective role in the operation of countercyclical control measures system.The anti-synchronization early warning measures are divided into short,medium and long-term operational measures.The short-term operational measures include increasing/minus the mortgage interest rate.The medium-term operation measures are pre-sale of real estate futures in order to stabilize the expected supply.The long-term measure is to establish the mature land reserve.The Short-term and medium-term operational measures are palliative,and long-term operational measures are the root cause.Among them,in terms of vision,this paper proposes to set up a land central bank in order to create a stable long term land supply. |
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