Sino-US Trade Imbalance,Structural Shocks And Us Trade Policy Towards China From The Perspective Of Industry

Sino-US relation is one of the most influential bilateral relations in the world,especially the relations between economic and trade.While the total trade volume between China and the United States is increasing,the trade deficit in two countries is also enlarging.Trade development and imbalance coexist between China and the United States.However,the problem of trade imbalance is more sensitive.After Trump taking office,he paid great attention to this problem and tried to solve it through unilateralism.The consensus and divergence on trade imbalance between China and the United States will have a great impact on the future bilateral relationship.Therefore,it has a great practical significance to study the Sino-US trade imbalance and the U.S.trade policy towards China.As we all know,Trade deficit is a macroeconomic concept,but trade competition is more reflected in the industrial level.It is industrial competition that has a direct impact on a country’s industry development.On the issue of Sino-US trade imbalance,the current academic researches mostly focus on the trade deficit.The study from the perspective of industrial competition between the two countries is inadequate,especially on what is the Sino-US competitive relationship in the industrial level,how is the influnce of such competition on the U.S.economy,and whether it is a purposeful action of America to realize its political targets or not for just caring on the trade deficit between China and US and neglecting the industrial competition.Therefore,the study of the impact of Sino-US trade imbalance on US trade policy-making towards China from an industrial perspective not only expands the theoretical study of trade imbalance and provides theoretical basis for two countries to re-examine their foreign trade policy,but also provides the reference of policy making and evaluation for China to realize an all-round open trade strategy.This paper researches the current situation and causes of the trade imbalance in the representative industries between China and the United States.Firstly,this paper chooses such representative industries as textile,plastics and rubber,metal manufacturing,chemical,machinery manufacturing,electrical and electronic equipment manufacturing by referring to such factors as unemployment rate,election politics,trade deficit and trade relief measures of the United States.Next,the paper analyses the current situation and causes of trade imbalance between China and the United States in representative industries.The analysis shows that it is inevitable to the increasing trade deficit in representative industries between the United States because of economic globalization.The Sino-US trade deficit has a synchronous change with Sino-World trade deficit.And the change of the trade deficit between China and the United States is relative.From the research,the paper finds the reasones of representative industries trade imbalance between China and the United States includes the overestimation of US trade statistics,the trade substitution effect and trade creation effect of US direct investment in China,and the change of international competitiveness of Chinese and American industries.In order to analyze the relationship between Sino-US trade imbalance and industry shock deeply,this paper uses the regression models of trade and employment,trade and output,trade and wage and the empirical analysis of the relationship between trade and profit to find whether Sino-US trade imbalance leads to structural shocks on the representative industries of the United States.The results show that the impact of Sino-US trade on employment,output,wages and profits has difference in different industry,and it does not lead to structural shocks on the representative industries of the United States.Therefore,a series of policies that the United States has implemented to China by linking the Sino-US trade imbalance with the industry shock are not based on the fact that industries are damaged seriously.In order to confirm the results of positive analysis,this paper takes two typical industries as case study,including iron and steel and Apple mobile phone.In this part,the paper tries to explain whether the United States linking the Sino-US trade imbalance with the industry shock is based on the fact or not through the comparative analysis between Sino-US and Japan-US.In the 1980 s,the United States imposed trade sanctions on Japan on the grounds that the trade imbalance between Japan and the United States shocked its industries.At present,China seems to be facing the same situation as Japan,but it has such essential differences as the industry development stage,exporting enterprises,the influence to employment and export control.The results show that the trade imbalance between Japan and the United States leads to a negative impact on the industries of the United States,which is essentially different from the trade imbalance between China and the United States.Therefore,the speech that America advocating Sino-US trade imbalance shocking its industries is exaggerated and ideologically biased.Whether it is exaggerating or intentionally that US links Sino-US trade imbalance with industry shock,the purpose is to serve for the trade policy towards China.Considering Sino-US trade imbalance,industry shock and US trade policy toward China,the interest group not only advocates that Sino-US trade imbalance threatens national industrial security,but also lobbies the government and Congress directly to influence US trade policy towards China.Therefore,based on the attitude of enterprises and industrial interest groups,this paper analyses the evolution of American trade policy towards China under the impact of Sino-US trade imbalance and industry shock.On the one hand,American sunset industry enterprises,such as steel and textile companies,are the main advocates of China shock as they are affected negatively by economic globalization.Whereas,multinational corporations of America benefiting from economic globalization seldom pay attention to Sino-US trade imbalance.On the other hand,such interest groups as AFL-CIO and NAM pay more attention on the trade imbalance and other interest groups benefiting from trade liberalization,such as the American Chamber of Commerce and the American Business Roundtable,rarely mention Sino-US trade imbalance and industry shock.Based on the attitudes of American interest groups,this paper summarizes the evolution of American trade policy towards China and concludes that after China’s accession into WTO,America’s trade policy towards China has undergone a transformation from cooperation to competition.During the Bush Administration and the Obama Administration,the United States mainly pursued the trade policy of cooperation with China,and the Sino-US trade relationship developed rapidly.During the Trump Administration,the United States is mainly pursuing the trade policy of competition with China,and the Sino-US trade relationship is facing new challenges.Acturally,the trend is closely related to the attitude change of American industrial interest groups.In their minds,it is difficult for the United States to open the Chinese market comprehensively and rapidly through the cooperation policy in the past year.Now,it’s time for America to take tougher measures to change the current situation in order to maintain America’s global hegemony in the process of strategic competition with China.The topic of Sino-US trade imbalance and industry shock has become a pretext for the United States to realize its strategic targets.All in all,in the context of Sino-US trade imbalance and industry shock,a series of trade policies maked and implemented by the United States towards China are not really based on the fact that America’s industries are damaged seriously.The United States intends to link the Sion-US trade imbalance with industry shock,on the one hand,it caters to the demands of interest groups to serve the domestic electoral politics,on the other hand,it intends to hype this issue to make tougher policies to limit China’s development and maintain the global hegemony.Finally,according to the research conclusion,this paper puts forward some suggestions,such as speeding up industry upgrading of China,taking various measures to cope with Sino-US trade imbalance and taking precautions against America’s financial war towards China.