Strategic Behavior And Contract Design Of Tradable Green Certificates Based On Common Interest Game

Renewable portfolio standard(RPS)is a top-level institution design for realizing the energy low-carbon transition in China,and its implementation requires a complementary system,i.e.tradable green certificates(TGC)system.In recent years,with the economic transformation and structural adjustment of China,the institution construction of RPS and TGC was promoted continuously.On Jul.1,2017,China implemented the voluntary TGC formally.However,due to the reasons such as not yet start-up mandatory TGC and weaker environmental protection awareness of citizen,the liquidity of TGC market in China was seriously insufficient.Therefore,it is imperative to implement mandatory TGC,for improving the institutional performance of RPS.In the implementation of mandatory TGC,market participants usually establish strategic alliances to avoid the policy risks and market risks of TGC,based on common interests.The scientific contract design of TGC can effectively guide the market participants' strategic behavior and solve the profit allocation problems of interests community,thereby promoting the success and sustainable development of strategic alliance.On basis of the considerations of the above problems,this thesis studied the strategic behavior and contract design of TGC,according to the common interest games.Through the related theories of stakeholders,game and contract,this thesis were to study the strategic behavior game and evolutionary of TGC,construct the contract and its optimize models of TGC,design and present the contract parameters and their optimization results for TGC.The main research work of this thesis was as follows:(1)Based on the scientific analysis on the stakeholders' common interests of TGC,this thesis explained the constructiveness of TGC system to the market participants' strategic behavior and the symbiotic evolution mechanism between the two in the long term,according to the constructiveness and evolutionary of institution,constructed the strategic behavior game model of market participants,and analyzed the market participants' group space state and game equilibrium of their strategic behavior.(2)This thesis analyzed the dynamic evolution process,path and evolution stable strategies of market participants'strategic behavior by developing the evolution game model for the TGC strategic behavior;on this basis,this thesis studied the formation and stability of the strategic alliance of TGC market participants,and the strategic behavior of market participants was simulated and analyzed accordingly.(3)According to the common interests of strategic alliance members,this thesis analyzed the TGC contract parameters on basis of constructing the TGC contract model,and then took the benefits maximization of strategic alliances as the efficiency benchmark to scientifically evaluate the contract efficiency of TGC.(4)This thesis provided the optimization method for the contract parameters of TGC by developing the contract optimization model of TGC,and then the optimization results of TGC contract were analyzed scientifically,combined with the China's actual national conditions and the related parameters of power market.The main research conclusions were as follow:(1)In the process of trading green certificates,because there is common interests between market participants,the reciprocal cooperation and forming strategic alliances could become the stable strategy of strategic behavior evolution game of TGC market participants;moreover,the higher the benefits(direct and indirect benefits)generated by cooperation,the more symmetrical the information and the lower the transaction cost,the greater the probability that reciprocal cooperation becomes the market participants's common belief.(2)In the strategic alliance of market participants,when the update probability of market participants' strategic behavior is very slow,that is,the threat faced by betrayer is very large,the joint cooperation will become the sole equilibrium strategy of strategic behavior game of strategic alliance members;the strategic alliances will become an effective organizational form for the market participants to achieve common interests and avoid the policy risks and market risks of TCG,and the separation of trading groups caused by TGC contracts can effectively strengthen the stability of strategic alliance.(3)The optimal solution of TGC contract model constructed in this thesis based on the common interests contributes to provide the decision-making basis for the scientific design of contract parameters.(4)The TGC contract optimization model constructed in this thesis based on the benefit allocation mechanism of revenue sharing can realize the optimization design of contract parameters,and conduce to the improvement of the TGC contract efficiency,thus providing the scientific basis for realizing the interests rational distribution among the strategic alliance members.The main innovation points of this thesis were as follows:on the one hand,revealed the constructiveness of TGC system to the market participants' strategic behavior and the symbiotic evolution mechanism between the two in the long term,and developed the evolution game model for the strategic behavior of TGC;on the other hand,based on the common interests relationships between the strategic alliance members and the benefit distribution mechanism of revenue sharing,constructed the TGC contract and its optimization models,respectively.