Empirical Study On The Impact Of Residential Investment On Economic Growth

Since China’s implementation of housing monetization reform,residential investment has been growing rapidly and has become gradually the important strength of promoting economic growth,but in recent years,the residential investment scale has grown excessively and residential investment structure has not been reasonable,which caused not only a great waste of resources but aroused many social problems,and weakened the promotive effect of residential investment on economic growth.Whether the effect of residential investment on economic growth is changed,and how to control all kinds of residential investment scales and the residential investment structure to full its important role to economic growth in the next period have become hot issues in the context of the new normal economy.Given this,the dissertation studies empirically the impact of residential investment on economic growth in order to reveal the inherent law between them,to explore the existing problems of residential investment scale and its structure,to grasp the change trend of impact residential investment on economic growth and to provide reality basis for the establishiment and adjustment of residential investment policies.Firstly,this dissertation analyzes the current situation of residential investment and economic growth on the basis of reviewing the related theories and literatures about the residential investment and economic growth.Secondly,it selects the provincial panel data of China from 1999 to 2013 and establishes static and dynamic panel system GMM models to study empirically the impacts of total housing,commercial housing,affordable housing,villas and luxury apartments investments scales on economic growth using the total sample and the segmented sample respectively,and analyzes comparatively the effect of every kind of residential investment scale on economic growth in different stages.Thirdly,using dynamic panel system GMM model,the dissertation studies empirically the impact of residential investments structure on economic growth with the total sample and the segmented sample respectively,analyzes comparatively the results of the two phases,and calculates the optimal range of residential investment structure.Lastly,according to the empirical result and the actual situation of residential investment in our country suggestions are put forward about how to controll effectively various kinds of residential investment scale and to optimize residential investment structure.Based on the researches above the main conclusions are as follows: firstly,each kind of residential investment scale has different effect on economic growth.From the point of view of total samples,the investment scales of total housing,commercial housing,villas and apartments have positive influences on economic growth and the investment scale of affordable housing has negative impact on economic growth.From the point of view of segmented samples,the influences of total housing,commercial housing investment scales on economic growth are all changed from positive to negative,and which shows that their trends turn to be worse;The influence of affordable housing investment scale on economic growth is changed from negative to positive,and the trend is gradually improving;Villas and apartments investment scale has positive influence on economic growth in two phases,but the influence degree is gradually decreasing.Secondly,each proportion of residential investment has significantly different influence on economic growth.From the point of view of total samples,the ratios of total housing investment to real estate investment,villas and apartments to residential investment have positive influences on economic growth;The ratio of commercial housing investment to residential investment has not significant influence on economic growth;The ratio of affordable housing investment to residential investment has significant negative influence on the economic growth.From the point of view of segmented samples,The influences of ratios of residential total investment to real estate investment,affordable housing investment to residential investment,villas and apartments investment to residential investment on economic growth are all changed from negative to positive;The influence of the ratio of commercial housing investment to residential investment on growth is changed from positive to negative.Thirdly,the scale of the residential investment presents excessive growth in general.The investment scales of total housing,commercial housing,villas and apartments are excessive growth and the investment scale of affordable housing grows slowly.Lastly,residential investment structure is not reasonable.The proportion of commercial housing investment to total residential investment is too big,and the ratios of affordable housing investment,villas and apartments investment to total residential investment are small comparatively.The main innovations of this dissertation include: The first is that the influences of every kind of residential investment scale and the residential investment structure on economic growth are analyzed empirically.The available literatures are mostly limited to study the influence of total housing investment on economic growth,and the researches are extremely rare about the influences of the investment scales of commercial housing,affordable housing,villas and apartments and the residential investment structure on economic growth.Therefore,this dissertation constructs static and dynamic panel models and takes the investments of total housing,commercial housing,affordable housing,villas and apartments and the residential investment structure as research objects to study the influences of them on economic growth,which expands the research field.The second is that the dynamic panel system GMM model is constructed.In order to consider the influence of the lagged dependent variable on itself,eliminate the estimate errors because of endogeneity and missing important independent variables,this dissertation constructs the dynamic panel system GMM model and introduces many control variables such as nonresidential investment,openness,human capital,industrial structure and urbanization rate into the model so as to improve the credibility of the empirical results.The third is that the optimal range of residential investment structure is calculated.According to the empirical results and the tendency of the residential investment structure,the optimal range of residential investment structure is calculated by using the graphical method.This dissertation constructs a framework system of studying the influence of residential investment on economic growth,expands the research field and research method of residential investment and enriches the theoretical system of residential investment and economic growth.In order to control the scale of residential investment and optimize the structure of residential investment measures and suggestions are put forward that offer references for formulating and regulating the policy of residential investment.The research results have great theoretical and practical meanings.