Urban Residential Demand: Theory Analysis And An Empirical Study On Guangzhou City

The real estate industry,in particular,residential industry,has a great impact on the development of domestic economy and residential living level. The real estate industry in China started later,but has been developing fast with great Fluctuation in recent years.There are some differences in the development of real estate industry in some cities.And whether the problems of "price bubble" really exist is under heated debate in business,academic and political fields.As we know,whether the scale of urban residential supply is reasonable depends on the fitness to residential demand.And the accurate forecast of urban residential demand can give an effective tool for urban residential policy analysis.This paper is based on the neo-classical residential theory,and built on the assumption of coessential attribute.Under the assumption of coessential attribute,the relationship between the total of urban residential demand(Q)and the total of individual residential demand(q)is Q=∑q.We got the mechanism of urban residential demand from the analysis in the mechanism of individual residential demand and investment residential demand.The Grey Relational Grade analysis was used to screen independent variables for the model of residential demand function,based on the gray attribute of urban residential demand.The basic function is Q=N^*q(x₁,x₂,……, x_n),in which the function q(x₁,x₂,……,x_n)stands for the per capita residential demand,and x₁,x₂,……,x_n are the factors of individual residential demand.The elasticity of urban housing demand on its factors was calculated using the fitting results.And an empirical study was conducted using the sample of Guangzhou city.The main conclusions are:the elasticity of urban housing demand on its factor is related to the factors of urban housing demand.The value of elasticity of urban housing demand will change when the value of factors is different.For the city of Guangzhou,the elasticity of urban housing demand is related to the housing price,the leading rate and per capital GDP.The conclusion gave an explanation for why the elasticity of housing demand was different in different periods.