Resarch On The Motivation,Patten And Regulationas Of China's Grain Import Trade

In recent years,the trade volum of China's grain import has developed rapidly,which makes China has become one of world's largest grain import market.Meantime,international trade protectionism is rampant,and the upgrades of trade frictions such as trade war have led to major changes in the international market transaction environment for China's grain import trade.Therefore,the grain import trade has been closely connected with food security,and becomes a critical key factors to realize China's food security strategy successfully.Thus,research on the characteristics and evolution trends,exploration of the changing pattern of comparative advantages,clarification of the impact mechanism,measurement of the import demand elasticity,judgment of the welfare effects of STEs and TRQ system demonstrate theoretical and realistic significance in terms of understanding of development rule deeply,making use of international grain market resource efficiently,improving the reform of the trade management system effectively and enhancing the food security level comprehensivetly.This dissertation takes the theory of comparative advantage,the theory of preference similarity,the theory of regional economic integration and state trading as its research foundations,employs induction method,descriptive statistical analysis,comparative research method and econometric analysis as its research tools,make the distinctive characteristics,the dynamic change of comparative advantage,the effects of the influential factors and its periodic change,the trade patterns tendency and the welfare effect of the trade management measures on China's grain import trade as its research objectives,the main contents is summarized as follows:The first part,which includes Chapter One,introduces the background,the main purpose and the significance of this study abounding the changing characteristics and the tendency.On a thorough combing and objective review and evaluation of studies in this area,it specifies that a deep research on the comparative advantage,the influential factors,and the trade pattern tendency and core management policy is scientifically meaningful.Then it summarizes the method,the data and the tools,and finally it refines the originality of this study.The second part including Chapter Two and Chapter Three is a theoretical analysis of China' s grain import trade.Firstly,it employs a nominative analysis to define the connotation,the classification and the typical characteristics of China's grain import trade;secondly,it combines the evolution rules in the process of China's grain import trade with the traditional theory of comparative advantage,the theory of preference similarity,the theory of regional integration and stating trade;thirdly,on the basis of theoretical analysis,it forms the logistic relationship as trade developmental characteristics(measurement of comparative advantages plus identification of influential factors)? trade pattern tendency(time pattern tendency,commodity pattern tendency and geographic structural tendency)? trade management policy(tariff quota and state trading).The third part,including Chapter Four,Chapter Five,Chapter Six and Chapter Seven,is an empirical analysis.Chapter Four is an empirical analysis on the dynamic change of the comparative advantages on the main five grain trade from perspectives of trans-commodity,trans-country and trans-time with Dynamic NRCA Index and grain trade data from year 1992 to year 2015.Chapter Five constructs a theoretic framework on the influential mechanism and make a deep analysis on the effects and its periodical changes during the process with Three-way gravity model and macroeconomic data from year 1992 to year 2015.Chapter Six explores the trade diversion effect /trade creation effect and the trade pattern tendency of the One Belt and Road strategy(B&R)with improved Static/ Dynamic LA-AIDs model and monthly data from Jan.2010 to Dec.2016.Chapter Seven calculates the welfare effect in wheat,rice and maize sectors respectively with a TRQs and STE tariff equivalent model under cournot market structure.The main empirical conclusions are as follows:1.The empirical conclusion of an empirical analysis on the dynamic change of the comparative advantages on the main five grain trade from perspectives of trans-commodity,trans-country and trans-time with Dynamic NRCA Index and grain trade data from year 1992 to year 2015 shows that the comparative advantage of wheat and rice import trade is much higher than that of rye,maize and sorghum import trade;the comparative advantage of rice import trade is much higher than any other kinds;thus the volume of wheat import and rice import is possible shrinking,while the volume of maize,sorghum and rye import trade is possible expanding.Besides,the difference on wheat commodity between China and Canada or Australia is shrinking;the difference on maize commodity between China and USA is expanding;the difference on rice commodity between China and ASEAN is expanding;the stability on the comparative advantage of all the five main import grains is very weak.2.The empirical conclusion of an empirical analysis on construction of a theoretic framework on the influential mechanism and a deep analysis on the effects and its periodical changes during the process with Three-way gravity model and macroeconomic data from year 1992 to year 2015 shows that the economic size,the developmental of both China and its trading partners are the critical gravity factors effecting the growth of China's grain import trade.The influential power reaches its peak from year 1992 to year 2000,and the effects on wheat and rice deteriorates while the effects on rye,maize and sorghum strengthens with time goes by.Geographic distance,common territory,logistic efficiency in trading partner,APEC,WTO,B&R and FTA are the core trade resistance factors on China's grain import trade.By a comparative analysis based on the three periods from year 1991-2000,year 2002-2008 and year 2009-2016,it is found that the influential effects of traditional multilateral free trade arrangement such as WTO and APEC is decaying while the influential effects of the newly-born regional integration arrangement such as B&R and FTA is in power instead after year 2009.3.The empirical conclusion of an empirical analysis on the trade diversion effect /trade creation effect and the trade pattern tendency of the One Belt and Road strategy(B&R)with improved Static/ Dynamic LA-AIDs model and monthly data from Jan.2010 to Dec.2016 shows that the import trade volume of wheat and rice will maintain steadily in short term and shrink in long term,whose overall market share in grain may fall further.The import trade volume of rye,maize and sorghum will rise rapidly in short term and maintain stable in long term.The B&R strategy may promote a geographic transformation for grain trade,which means that the distribution center of wheat market may shift from Canada and USA to Australia,the distribution center of rice may remain in the ASEAN,the distribution center of maize may locate in USA,ASEAN and Russia,and the distribution center of rye may shift from Canada to EU.4.The empirical conclusion of calculation of the welfare effect in wheat,rice and maize sectors respectively with a TRQs and STE tariff equivalent model under cournot market structure shows that due to combination with administrative allocation of TRQ,the existence of STEs leads to segmentation of domestic market and partial monopoly of grain import trade,which aggravates welfare distortion degree;different operational goals of STEs reflects the governmental aim of income redistribution in grain sector,and result in differences in tariff equivalent and welfare distortion level.When the STEs pursue profit-maximization,its tariff equivalent is minimal,and both the producer and the consumer surplus increases;when the STEs pursue producer-surplus maximization,its tariff equivalent is highest and welfare distortion is deepest in wheat sector;when the STEs pursue consumer-surplus maximization,its tariff equivalent is negative,the producer surplus decreases and the consumer surplus increase.Based on the above conclusions,this dissertation proposes that spreading risks of import source concentration,implementation of diversified and stereo import partners and transport channels;improve the productivity of the main grain products and protect the weaker trade reasonably;promote trade facilitation and grain safety cooperation actively;deepen the market-oriented reform in grain STE and reduce the degree of welfare distortions.