Research On The Coordinated Development Of Manufacturing Industry And Service Industry In China

With the historical transformation of the main contradictions in Chinese society,China's economy has changed from speed priority to "high-quality development".Meanwhile,the industrial structure has changed greatly.Service industry has become the main driving force for increasing employment and stimulating economic growth in the new era.To achieve "high-quality development",real economy should have been developed as the support,and the core of real economy lies in manufacturing industry.Therefore,when the economy moves from "industrial" era to "service" era,the coordinated development and interaction between manufacturing industry and service industry will become an inevitable trend.In the new era,the industrial transformation shows the trends of service-based,high-end,intelligent,interconnected and environmental.On the one hand,the rising domestic labor costs leads to substitution effect of cheap labor in emerging economies.On the other hand,with the upgrading of industrial technology,the developed countries,which occupy the dominant position,have been building new models for international trade,in which China is at a disadvantage.Under the economic environment of "blockade before and chase after",industrial upgrading is imminent,and industrial upgrading cannot be separated from the coordinated development of industries.The coordinated development of manufacturing industry and service industry is mainly manifested in five aspects: rational industrial structure,formation of industrial agglomeration,improvement of labor productivity,narrowing the income gap and sustainable development.Applying the relevant theories and methods of statistics,econometrics,new economic geography,industrial economics and regional economics,and on the basis of exploring the coordinated development mechanism of manufacturing and service industries,this paper establishes the research path of "industrial development-industrial coordination-driving factors-industrial upgrading",which provides decision-making reference for promoting the coordinated development of inter-regional industries and industrial optimization and upgrading.Specifically,this paper tries to answer the following questions:(1)What is the theoretical basis for the coordinated development of manufacturing and service industries? What are the motivations for the coordinated development of the two industries? Which carriers need to be relied on to achieve coordinated development? What mechanisms and paths exist?(2)What is the level of development of manufacturing and service industries in China? What is the spatial and temporal evolution trend of their respective development levels? Are there obvious regional differences? How to measure the development level and regional differences of the two industries?(3)Is there a coordinated development between manufacturing and service industries in China? What are the evolution and regional characteristics of coordinated industrial development? What is the prospect of Coordinated Industrial Development in the future?(4)What are the main factors driving the coordinated development of manufacturing and service industries? What are the mechanisms? How to measure the effect of various factors on the level of coordinated development? Is there spatial spillover effect and spatial heterogeneity?(5)What is the current situation of China's manufacturing industry upgrading? How to measure industrial upgrading scientifically and reasonably? Can the coordinated development of manufacturing industry and service industry promote the upgrading of manufacturing industry? What is the magnitude and direction of action?The main contents of this paper are as follows: Firstly,by sorting out the previous literature,an index system reflecting the comprehensive development level of manufacturing and service industries is constructed,which is divided into three parts based on the entropy weight method,the comprehensive index method and the Gini coefficient decomposition method.The comprehensive development level of manufacturing and service industries and their regional differences are estimated from the four levels of the whole,provincial,regional and industrial sectors.Secondly,the coordinated development level of manufacturing and service industries under the four levels is calculated by using the coupling coordination degree model,and the coordinated development mode of manufacturing and service industries is classified and analyzed.The scenario analysis method is applied to the future development of the two industries.Thirdly,the driving factors of the coordinated development of manufacturing and service industries are explored,and the spatial agglomeration effect,spatial spillover effect and spatial heterogeneity of driving factors of the coordinated development of manufacturing and service industries are quantitatively analyzed by using spatial exploratory data analysis,spatial panel econometric model and geographic weighted regression model.Finally,based on DEA-Malmquist model,the spatial heterogeneity of driving factors is estimated.The total factor productivity and its changes of manufacturing industry in general,provincial and various industries are studied,and then the upgrading effect of manufacturing industry is measured.The threshold regression model is used to examine the non-linear impact of the coordinated development of manufacturing industry and service industry on the upgrading of manufacturing industry.The main conclusions are as follows:Firstly,the level of comprehensive development of manufacturing and service industries in China is not balanced in space.Specifically,the comprehensive index of the two industries has been increasing year by year,showing a left-skewed distribution at the provincial level,while maintaining a declining distribution pattern at the regional level of "East,West"("Coastal to Inland"),and the overall level of manufacturing development lags behind the service industry;the decomposition of regional differences can find that "interregional differences > intra-regional differences > super-variable density",and the regional differences are the overall regional differences.The main source of the difference is that the gap between regions tends to widen after spatial segmentation,while the gap within regions tends to narrow.Secondly,the degree of coupling and coordination between manufacturing and service industries in China is increasing year by year,and the future trend is better,but it shows different characteristics in different regions and industries.From the regional level,the eastern coastal zone with developed economy and high degree of industrial agglomeration tends to have a high level of industrial coordination,while the southwestern region with underdeveloped economy and low degree of industrial agglomeration tends to have a low level of industrial coordination.From the industry level,some industries in the serviceoriented and convergent industries have infiltrated into the two industries,showing strong coordination,leading them to a barely coordinated level;while most industries in the manufacturing-oriented industries have not played an effective role in the process of upgrading and integration of the two industries,but have stopped at the level of imbalance.Thirdly,there is a significant spatial correlation between the coupling and coordination degree of Chinese manufacturing industry and service industry,and the spatial spillover effect and spatial heterogeneity of driving factors coexist.Through the global and local Moran's I index,it is found that the spatial correlation of the degree of coupling coordination increases gradually,and the number of provinces in high-level agglomeration areas increases gradually.Relevant tests based on spatial econometric model show that SDM model with spatial fixed effect has the best fitting effect.Estimation results show that human capital,infrastructure construction and industrial policy have significant spatial spillover effects on strain variables,while no significant spatial spillover effects are found in other variables.The results of GWR estimation show that the average regression coefficients of driving factors have a positive effect on the degree of industrial coupling coordination,and the regional differences are significant.Fourthly,the coordinated development of China's manufacturing industry and service industry has a significant positive role in promoting the upgrading of manufacturing industry,but there are differences in the upgrading effect of manufacturing industry under different threshold variables.Among them,there is a single threshold value for industrial scale.When the sales output value of manufacturing industry is less than 3468.5 billion yuan,the effect of Coordinated Industrial Development on improving production efficiency of manufacturing industry is stronger,and vice versa is weaker.There is a double threshold value for comprehensive development level.When the comprehensive development level of manufacturing industry is between 0.0854 and 0.3330,the effect of Coordinated Industrial Development on improving production efficiency of manufacturing industry is the strongest.When the internal expenditure of R&D expenditure is higher than 212.7 billion yuan,the effect of Coordinated Industrial Development on improving manufacturing productivity is stronger,and vice versa is weaker.Based on the conclusions of the theoretical and empirical analysis,this paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the coordinated development of regional industries and the upgrading and upgrading of industries: upgrading the development level of manufacturing and service industries,accelerating the formation of industrial clusters,deepening the high quality development under the supply side reform,promoting the transfer of industry to the high-end of the global value chain,adapting to the trend of "Internet +" development,and constantly upgrading the industrial interaction.Dynamic mode.The innovations and main contributions of this paper are:(1)exploring the motive,carrier and path of coordinated development of industry are explored,and the theoretical mechanisms of coordinated development of manufacturing industry and service industry are improved;(2)the coordinated development of manufacturing industry and service industry,common characteristics,difference level and dynamic evolution law,inheriting and expanding the research of industrial association and integration are innovatively explored,in order to realize industrial association.A model of development that can be used for reference is proposed;(3)spatial factors are introduced to measure the spatial agglomeration effect of coordinated development of manufacturing and service industries,spatial spillover effect and spatial heterogeneity of driving factors,and expand the theoretical analysis of coordinated development of industry to spatial level;(4)Break through the traditional linear one-way thinking,test the coordinated development of manufacturing and service industries to manufacturing and the threshold effect are tested.the non-linear driving mechanisms of industrial coordinated development to industrial upgrading are established.