Study On Risk Assessment And Decision-making Of BT Project From The Perspective Of Social Capital

In recent years,BT(Build-Transfer)as a project investment and financing mode,is widely used in the public utilities and infrastructure construction.With multiple participants and complex organizations,BT is faced with various uncertainties,which makes its riskmanagement be concerned a lot.Some of the traditional project risk management researchers carried out their research form the perspective of social relationships while most of them follow the economic risks.In fact,the influences on BT from social capital are complicated.The findings may be too incomplete if we study the economic risks and social capital separately.It is necessary that we study both of them under one framework.Based on project risk management theory,using structural equation modeling and system dynamics modeling methods,this thesis carries out multidimensional risk measure,and selects response strategies,which has theoretic importance and practice value.The completedresearchworkis mainly reflected in the following four aspects.1.The conception of investor's social capital has been defined and a social capital assessment system for BT investors has been built,under which social capital can be defined and assessed from the stakeholders' perspective.Based on the characteristics of public engineering,social capital for BT projects is divided into internal and externalsocial capital,of which the internal social capital consists of three types including structural type,relational type and cognitive type,and the external capital comprises five dimensions that is politics,finance,market,reputation and environment,of which the environmental social capital is a newly abstracted dimension considering the big environmental influences on public projects.It has been verified through exploratory factor analysis.2.Multi-dimensional risk measurement method was put forward and the risk measurement index system was built.The BT project risks have been systematically summarized from investors' perspective.The major risks confronted during three main stages including pre-construction stage,construction stage and buy-back stage are defined as financing risk,quality risk and completion risk.Considering the overall risk factors,the concrete risks confronted are divided into six types including political risk,economical risk,management risk,construction risk,credit risk,budget-change risk and natural risk.The various types of risks run throughout the whole process of project construction,and the concrete risks confronted in different stages match its different major risks.3.The relationship between social capital and the BT project risks was analyzedthrough comprehensive risk analysis.By adopting the theoretical analysismethod,the theory model of relationship between social capital and risk was built.And then through empirical analysis,the relationship between social capital and project risk was verified by the structural equation model.The research shows that financing risk,quality risk and completion risk of BT project are the main risks.The external social capital of the investors has significant influence on financing risk,quality risk and completion risk.The internal social capital of the investors has an important impact on the quality risk.4.The application system dynamics theory is used to identify and make decision on the risk of BT project from the perspective of social capital,and put forward the suggestion of reducing risk.By using Vensim software,investors risk identification evaluation model,based on system dynamics,is constructed under the social capital angle.The simulation study on the municipal engineering BT project risk is done and the simulation conditions are changed to suggest different risk responsemeasures and choose the optimal solution.The study shows that,under other conditions,it is more significant to increase social capital than increase time to reduce the risks.Therefore,in order to reduce risk,the investorsof BT project should increase the investment in social capital and do well in the management of investment and financing,survey and design,construction and repurchase in each stage.Besides,they should formulate systemic and scientific plans,foresee and avoid risk in time,make efforts to reduce operating costs and maximize investment returns.Based on the perspective of social capital,this paper has analyzed the influence of the stakeholders' social capital on the BT project risk and made an organic combination of social capital and BT project risk management.The innovation points are embodied in three aspects: firstly,by doing the research of social capital from project level,the dimension of social capital is widen,and the research vision of the BT project risk management is broaden;The second is to reveal the relationship between social capital and project risk by constructing structural model and empirical analysis,which has expanded the application field of social capital theory,and improved the engineering value of research;Thirdly,the application system dynamics theory is used to simulate the risk of BT project,breaking the static research method of traditional risk management and providing new ideas for project risk prevention.