Research On Social Risk Management Of PPP Project Based On SD

PPP(Public Private Partnership)is a cooperative mode to provide infrastructure and Public services.It is realized through the establishment of cooperative relations between the government and social capital.It has the characteristics of large investment scale,long period,complex relationship between stakeholders,and multiple risk factors.PPP model is applied in many infrastructure fields,such as transportation facilities,municipal engineering,ecological environmental protection,urban development,tourism,education,water conservancy construction,medical and health care,etc.,which can not only help to relieve the financial pressure of the government and reduce its risks,but also enable social capital to participate in providing public goods or services for win-win cooperation.With the rapid development of PPP projects,while bringing social and economic benefits,due to its sociality,complexity and complex interest relationship,social mass incidents may break out due to social risk factors and lead to project failure.Research by the world bank shows that the construction of transportation facilities is positively correlated with the growth of GDP.Transport infrastructure projects have a lot of typical characteristics of PPP project--construction capital demand big and long construction period,etc.,the PPP model in the application of traffic facilities can make both the government and social capital play their respective advantages,risk-sharing,in improve efficiency at the same time,the government can give effective supervision to ensure the success of the project implementation.Based on the traffic infrastructure PPP project as the research object,the traffic infrastructure PPP project price is directly related to the interests of all parties,as well as the social stability in the success or failure of the project has an important influence,so the price for the PPP project under the influence of the social risk factor analysis can provide reference for regulation of social risk.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:(1)In order to determine the research object of this paper,the research content,research method and technical route,etc.,on the basis of the PPP project research background and the negative effects brought by the social risks,the PPP project combing and analysis of the risk,social risk,and the research status of stakeholders and related literature,the research of the current PPP project social risks.(2)Through the development process of stakeholder theory and the research method of stakeholders,the connotation and importance of PPP project stakeholders are clarified,and the research method and process of PPP project stakeholders are determined.Through the analysis of relevant literature on the connotation of social risk,combined with the characteristics of PPP projects and other scholars' literature,the definition of social risk of PPP projects is obtained.(3)By means of literature review and case analysis,stakeholders of PPP projects related to transportation facilities are firstly identified and classified into government,social capital and the public.From the perspective of stakeholders of the three parties,interest demands are identified and conflicts between them are analyzed.Secondly,it identifies the social risk factors under the influence of PPP project charging price,and proposes the regulation method of social risk based on balancing stakeholder satisfaction through the analysis of social risk governance path and the study of social risk governance methods.(4)Using system dynamics method and software,first of all,according to the third chapter analysis the traffic infrastructure PPP project stakeholders,the interests and social risk factors under the influence of price,build stakeholder relationship diagrams to causal feedback loops,the second in the causal feedback loop diagram based on the relationship between stakeholders to join pricing subsidies and two adjustment measures,the formation of social risk management causal feedback loops,and finally on the basis of the causal loop built based on the price impact of the PPP project social risk governance system dynamics model,the function relationship between the variables and build.(5)Use with real case to verify system function model and system adaptability,by entering the society under the influence of the different price risk factor changes observed the change of the three stakeholder satisfaction,as the PPP project stakeholders satisfaction trend forecast,at the same time provide a reference for subsequent adjustment,again by adjusting measures,verify the validity of the adjustment measures,in order to balance and improve the stakeholders' satisfaction and reduce the possibility of social risks occur.This paper innovation points embodied in:using the method of system dynamics analysis of the PPP project social risk management problems,from the perspective of stakeholders and traffic facility project their own characteristics,explores the traffic infrastructure PPP project stakeholders interests,based on the social risk factors of price and adjustment measures between the endogenous interactive path,and a simulation was carried out.The conclusion of this paper is traffic infrastructure PPP project stakeholders satisfaction for the social risk factors under the influence of the price decline is larger,at the same time pricing and subsidy two measures can effectively balance in social risk factors and improve stakeholders' satisfaction,in order to avoid the happening of social risks,the risk factors in society,through the different adjustment measures in order to promote the interests balance plays an important role,can avoid by one party against the project fails,this paper studies social risk management of other types of PPP project has a certain reference significance.