The Research On Evaluation Of Sustainable Development Of City Gas Industry In China

An effective measure to realize national sustainable development strategy is to control air pollution by developing city gas industry of China.And the sustainable development of it is related to the sucessful implementation of the strategy.This paper focuses on China's city gas industry overall development,using theories and methods such as systematical induction,comparison research,system construction,model analysis and empirical research,to carry out the related research of city gas industry sustainable development evaluation.The author analyzed the current situation of the city gas industry development with method of systematical induction,put forward the phase division basis and principles for the first time,divided the development process into four stages including slow development,hard exploration,industry policy and multiple competiton and summarized characteristics of each stage.It confirms that economic and social demand is the inner motive force of sustainable development of city gas,resource conditions are the fundamental guarantee and the government's policy guidance is very significant.This study used the PEST method and SWOT analysis model respectively to analyze qualitatively and investigate on macro and micro environment for the sustainable development of China's city gas industry,pointed out the opportunities,threats,advantages and disadvantages of the city gas industry sustainable development,and built the environment SWOT-PEST analysis matrix.The author finds that the market,cost and security are key facors which influence the sustainable development of city gas industry.According to the concepts and theories of sustainable development,this study put forward the concept and the basic connotation of sustainable development of city gas industry for the first time,and analyzed the concept of sustainable development of city gas ability and its constituent elements.On the basis of the analytical investigation of the fundamental properties of city gas,the author presented the development orientation and goals of the industry also.According to the theories and methods of systematics and analytic hierarchy process(AHP),the author carried out level analysis,structural analysis,causal analysis and feature analysis of the sustainable development system of city gas industry,and made the structure and module function of the system of the sustainable development of city gas industry further clear.By setting and screening indicators,this paper builds up the sustainable development evaluation index system of city gas which contains five subsystems such as economy,society,resources,environment and technology,with 46 indicators.The author constructed combination evaluation model based on the consistency of the sustainable development of city gas.The evaluation results of the sustainable development system of city gas industry in 2002-2013 indicates that each subsysterm is on the overall upward trend with the factor analysis method,the improved entropy method,the improved TOPSIS method and the improved grey correlation analysis method respectively.And there is consistency among the four compensive evaluation methods with Kendall consistency check prior to the combination assessment.Then,the average method,Borda method,Copeland method based on the order value and the improved fuzzy Borda method,arithmetic mean method and average power method based on the evaluation value of the primary evaluation should be used to combination evaluation severally.After that,this paper takes two types of combination evaluation result into Spearman rank correlation coefficient test to check their correlation between the combination evaluation conclusion and the primary results,and gets the best evaluation of all the methods of two types combination.The check of the best combination evaluation shows that the best combination evaluation based on the order value and the best combination evaluation based on the evaluation value are highly relevant and have highly consistency.The results using the optimal combination evaluation value of each subsystem and calculation of city gas system development degree,coordination degree,sustainable degree and sustainable development ability show that,during 2002-2008 the country city gas system is on a unsustainable development stage;during 2009-2010 it is weaker sustainable;during 2011-2012 it is weak;and after 2013 it is on the stage of ordinary sustainable development.According to the analysis of preceding chapters and evaluation results,the author puts forward policies and suggestions for the sustainable development of China's city gas industry in three aspects,such as improving top-level design,laying a solid foundation and strengthening the ability to the construction of sustainable development.