Study On Trade Gains Distribution Between China And The U.S.in Global Value Chains

Since the 1990s,Global Value Chains(GVCs)dominated by multinational companies from developed countries has been developing rapidly with the deepened economic globalization.The international division of labor has developed from inter-industry and intra-industry division to intra-product value chain division based on process.Under the GVCs division of labor,transnational flows of production factors and multiple transnational transactions of intermediate products are typical features.The cross-attribution of trade gains changes the judgment and evaluation of gains from trade under the aspect of traditional division of labor.The influencing factors and mechanisms of trade gains distribution among countries become more complex.The division of labor and trade pattern between China and the U.S.in GVCs is a typical case of vertical specialization between developing countries and developed countries.With the continuous growth of bilateral trade between China and the U.S.,the degrees of value chain correlation and economic&trade dependency are deepening.At the same time,distribution of trade gains between China and the U.S has attracted much attention in the context of "anti-globalization" and trade politics On the one hand,the U.S.government regards trade imbalance as a key issue of U.S economy,argues that American trade deficit with China is caused by China's unfair trade,evaluates trade gains and losses of bilateral trade based upon the size of deficit,and even believes that the offshore outsourcing of American manufacturing to China is the incentive for trade deficit and increased unemployment.On the other hand,as Chinese industries are gradually upgraded along GVCs the U.S.has shown greater concern for unit trade gains and imposed massive tariffs on goods imported from China by launching "301 investigation" that forced technology transfer from China has been seriously damaging the intellectual property rights of American enterprises Under this background,to measure the developing trend of trade gains distribution under GVCs between China and the U.S.scientifically and study the influence factors&mechanisms behind the surface of trade gains distribution between them furtherly which are good for understanding differences and disputes correctly,facilitating balanced development of gains distribution as well as promoting the reconstruction of GVCs deeply have important theoretical and practical significanceThis thesis begins with measurement analysis of the overall trade gains distribution&unit trade gains distribution of the whole industry,agriculture,mining,manufacturing and service industry between China and the U.S.from 1995 to 2011 The study found that China has a comparative advantage on the overall distribution of trade gains in the whole industry,mining,manufacturing and service sector,but this advantage has been gradually weakened since 2005.In terms of unit gains distribution from 1995 to 2011,the U.S.occupied a relatively dominant position in the whole industry,manufacturing and service sector which was continuously strengthened from 2001 to 2005,weakened from 2006 to 2008 and the distribution of unit gains between China and the U.S.tended to develop in a balanced way.The reality of changes on trade gains distribution presents core questions of this thesis:with the deepening of GVCs division and trade,why has the gap of unit trade gains distribution experienced a trend of expanding first and then narrowing between China and the U.S.?How could relative trade gains of China shift from declining to rising?In order to explore the theoretical laws behind changes of trade gains distribution between China and the U.S.,the income distribution effect of general equilibrium model upon vertical process division trade is extended to the gains distribution effect of inter-country trade.Furthermore,the influencing factors and mechanisms of trade gains distribution between China and the U.S.under GVCs were studied in a 2 × 2 × 2 model.It is found that the effective factor price equalization theorem is no longer valid under the trade equilibrium without technology spillover process;under the spillover process,it is established.Changes of technological differences between China and the U.S.influence the changes of factor price differences through productivity effect,price effect and linkages of the two affect trade gains distribution between two countries.The change of technology and factor price difference will strengthen or weaken the distribution of trade gains in the same direction or in the opposite direction through intermediary and adjustment effects,which leads to the uncertainty of the influence direction of technology and factor price difference on the trade gains distribution between China and the U.S.under different conditions Compared with no spillover,gains distribution in trade balance of technology spillover process is more balanced.Changes of technology gap between China and the U.S.as well as its influences on factor price&relative factor price gap through productivity effect are crucial to the balanced development of trade gains distributionBased on theoretical research,influence factors for relative export value added rates between China and the U.S.of 14 manufacturing from 1995 to 2009 were measured using added value statistics and factor decomposition technique.It includes element input ratio,relative factor intensity,factor price ratio and ratio of relative factor prices between China and the U.S.providing data supports for empirical study Then,select the electrical and optical equipment industry as an example,which best represents vertical process division of GVCs,the changing trends of influencing factors upon trade gains distribution and their impacts on relative export value added rates between China and the U.S.were deeply analyzed.The study found that the relative export value added ratios between China and the U.S.were always lower than"1" from 1995 to 2011 and it was further deviated from the equilibrium state of“1”during 2001-2005 especially reached the lowest level in 2005.From 2006 to 2009,the relative value added ratios continued to increase and reached a record high in 2009 since China's accession to the WTO.The key point to the increase of relative export value added rates of electrical and optical industries is the optimization of factor endowment and the narrowing of differences in factor intensity between China and the U.S..Narrowing the technological gap between China and the U.S.and giving full play to the effects of productivity on increasing factor price are crucial to improving China's relative trade gains.In the empirical study,the thesis firstly conducts an empirical test on the effects of gains distribution and its working conditions in the vertical process trade of Chinese and American manufacturing industry.This study found that various labor wage ratios of China and the U.S.decrease with the increase of respectively relative labor intensity.The capital price ratio increase as the relative capital intensity increases.Relative wage ratios between China and the U.S.increase with the enhancement of labor input ratios and decrease with the improvement of relative labor intensity of export between them.In the productivity effect of factor price differences between China and the U.S.,the capital price ratio increases steadily with the decrease of capital input ratio between them,but whether the narrowing of all kinds of labor productivity gap between China and the U.S.could significantly reduce the wage gap between them has not gotten a definite conclusion.The effect of labor input ratio on the wage gap between China and the United States is nonlinear.There are significant single threshold characteristics in the price effects of high,medium and low skill wage differentials,productivity effect of medium,price effects of high and medium skill relative wage differentials,and productivity effect of medium between China and the U.S..The threshold characteristic of price effect is larger than that of productivity effectThe empirical study further tests mediating and moderating effects upon trade gains distribution between China and the U.S.through linkage of technology and factor price gaps.The empirical test of mediating effect shows that the relative technological difference has a greater degree of indirect influence on the distribution of trade gains between China and the U.S.through the relative factor price difference,while the technological difference between China and the U.S.has a greater degree of direct impact on the distribution of trade gains between China and the U.S..From the perspectives of comparative advantage and absolute advantage,the empirical models of trade gains distribution support that the absolute and relative differences of technology and factor price shows significant adjustment effects.Compared with single labor model,the heterogeneous labor model reflects more clearly the heterogeneous role of comparative advantage and absolute advantage of different skilled labors in trade gains distribution between China and the U.S..It is conducive to the improvement of China's relative trade gains and the balanced development of trade gains distribution between China and the U.S.to foster absolute advantages in high and low skilled labor by narrowing the productivity and wage gap between China and the U.S.in terms of high and low skilled labor,give full play to the comparative advantage of medium killed labor,increase capital intensity relative to high and low skilled labor,narrow the capital price gap between China and the U.S.,and cultivate capital's comparative advantage.Among the influences of control variables,the relative market size of China and the U.S.increases relative export value added ratios.The upgrading of the relative market structure will lead to the reduction of it.The influence of the relative industry system quality of different aspects on relative export value added ratios between China and the U.S.is heterogeneous.Finally,combined with the measurements,theories and empirical conclusions,this thesis puts forward the policy suggestions of improving China's relative trade gains and promoting the balanced development of its distribution between China and the U.S..It involves strengthening independent innovation,narrowing the technological gap between China and the U.S.and giving full play to the effects of productivity on increasing factor price.Forming a virtuous circle to increase profit of factor trade upon mediating and adjusting effects.Giving play to the advantages of Chinese market scale to promote the interaction and upgrading of market structure as well as endowment structure.The economic and trade cooperation between China and the U.S.under GVCs has a win-win effect.