Spatial Distribution Of Global Value Chains In TPP Members And Its Impact On China

With the rapid development of economic integration and vertical specialization, global value chains and free trade areas have a hot topic in academia. On February 4th, 2016, Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) has been signed, which on one hand will promote the fusion of global value chain between its members, on the other hand, will have effects on the participation in the global value chains of the countries outside of TPP,such as China. With intra-product deeped, how do global value chains distribute between TPP members and China? How does it influence TPP members and China respectively? These questions not only enrich the research on the influence of the TPP both in theory and in practice, but also provide the relevant evidence for China’s responses.Based on the Eora regional input-output tables, This paper mainly constructes absolute index and relative index about value added of forward links and backward link between TPP members and China measure their trade contacts, and combined these spatial distribution characteristics with TPP goods trade zero tariff rules, rules of origin and rules of yarn forward, this paper analyzes the influence of TPP on China participating in global value chains form bilateral trade, textile and clothing industry, chemicals and non-metal minerals industry, electrical and mechanical equipment and transportation equipment industry. The results showe that:To the TPP members, During 1990-2013, the ratios of forward links and backward links of members between TPP areas have shown a downward trend, reflecting the TPP members are getting closer to external market. But the establishment of TPP may lead to the reallocation of the global value chains, preventing the development of the trade between TPP members and the countries outside the region. Among them, Japan, Vietnam may obtain aquite little from the TPP.As for China, (1) the ratios in textile and clothing industry are far less than 1/2 That means China have participated in global value chains through importing intermediate products form TPP non-members or exporting to TPP non-members, and the influence of rules of yarn forward impact on Chinese textile and clothing industry is small. (2) According to relative amounts, during 1990-2013, the added value ratios of forward links in the electrical and mechanical equipment,chemicals and non-metal minerals and transport equipment industry are higher than 1/2, while the ratios of backward links lower than 1/2. That means China have participated in global value chains through importing intermediate products form non-members or exporting to TPP members. (3) TPP will relatively strong the trade barriers between China and member countries, and generate trade diversion effects, may slow or even decrease bilateral trade growth, especially for chemicals and non-metal minerals industry, electrical and mechanical equipment and transportation equipment industry.